本周四大科技股财报一些买方预期

$Microsoft(MSFT.US) SETUP & EXPECTATIONS – Wed, 4/30

4.4% implied move. MSFT OVER realized the move in the last 2 quarters, but UNDER realized in 6 of the 7 quarters prior to that.

Numbers typically hit at 4PM EST, call is at 5:30PM.

MSFT provides guidance ON THE CALL

LATERALS SO FAR? NOW, SAP were better; AI/Data Center color/data points from VRT, CEG, TSM, APH all encouraging.

MSFT BUYSIDE EXPECTATIONS WE PICKED UP

Q3 Azure growth constant currency – 30.8% (guide was 31-32% cc)

Q3 Office365 growth – 14%

Q4 guide on Azure cc growth – 31.3% (flat to 1pt of accel)…Brad is at 30.5% next quarter, having trimmed it a bit in his preview

FY25 Capex – $85B

FY26 Capex – $95.3B

FY25 GAAP EPS – $13.17

FY26 GAAP EPS – $15.17

QUESTION. If on this call, MSFT talks down future capex spend - do you find that bullish for MSFT shares? – about 30% said yes (with caveat on Azure strength), 70% said no $Meta Platforms(META.US) SETUP & EXPECTATIONS – Wed, 4/30

7% implied move. META has UNDER-realized the implied move for the last 3 quarters, and in 5 of the last 7 quarters.

Numbers typically hit at 4:05PM EST; call at 5PM.

META provides guidance IN THE RELEASE (and additional color on call)

LATERALS SO FAR? GOOGL 10% search growth was above 7-8% bogeys, don’t guide, but tone was solid; Ad Agencies mostly not “seeing it yet” and numbers OK (but often the last to know)

$Meta Platforms(META.US) BUYSIDE EXPECTATIONS WE PICKED UP

Q1 Total Reported Rev Growth – 14.3% (Street at 13.5%)….

Q1 GAAP EPS – $5.21

Q2 Total Reported Rev Guidance – $43.86B, 12.3% (slightly below Street at 13.2%)….

FY25 Total Expense guide – $115.23B midpoint (current guide is $114-119B, midpoint $116.5B)…

FY25 Capex guide – $63.11B (current guide $60-65B)… FY26 Capex – $69B….

2025 EPS – $25.78

2026 EPS – $28.45

QUESTION. What is your bull case ’26 EPS and bull case P/E multiple? – average $727 PO

$Amazon(AMZN.US) SETUP & EXPECTATIONS – Thurs, 5/1

6% implied move. AMZN UNDER realized the last 2 qtrs, but there’s no big trend, vacillating between over/under realizing over the past 3 years.

Numbers typically hit at 4:01PM EST; call is at 5PM.

AMZN provides quarterly guidance IN THE RELEASE

AMZN BUYSIDE EXPECTATIONS WE PICKED UP

AMZN Q1 Rev Growth – 8.7%

Q1 GAAP EBIT – $18.3B (Street at $17.5B)

Q1 AWS Revs/Growth – 17.6% (Street at 17%)

Q2 Rev Guide – 8.3% (below Street at 9.3%)

Q2 GAAP EBIT Guide – $17.9B (in-line with Street)…our feel is the true buyside is LOWER….more $16B-$17B mid point, Justin expects them to guide $12B-$17B, below the Street clearly

Q2 AWS Revs/Growth – 17.4%

2025 GAAP EBIT – $82.4B

2026 GAAP EBIT – $101.7B 2025 Capex – $105.7B

2026 Capex – $115.1B

$Apple(AAPL.US) SETUP & EXPECTATIONS – Thurs, 5/1

4% implied move. AAPL has UNDER realized implied moves (which were all 4% as well) in the last 3 quarters and in the majority of quarters over the past 5 years.

Numbers typically hit at 4:30PM EST, call is at 5PM

AAPL guides quarterly guidance on the call

AAPL BUYSIDE EXPECTATIONS WE PICKED UP

Q2 Total Revenue Growth – 4.3%

Q2 iPhone Sales – $45.9B, roughly flat

Q2 Service Revenue Growth – $26.2B, +10%

Q3 Total Revenue – $91.7B, 7% (above Street at 4%)

FY25 GAAP EPS – $7.32

FY25 iPhone Rev Growth – 2%

FY26 GAAP EPS – $8.15

FY26 iPhone Rev Growth – 5-10%, wide range, Tariff uncertainty

Source: Knowledge Planet