Last week I lost betting on Pinduoduo, will I win betting on Alibaba this week?

Placing orders and going to sleep
I want to see if I wake up to a market crash or a big win
If I win, I'll cover 88vip for a lifetime
If I lose, I'll never touch or short Chinese concept stocks again

$PDD(PDD.US) $Alibaba(BABA.US) 

Last week I thought Pinduoduo would rebound to 120 or even 130, wanted to go all-in on weekly options 

Version One:

Jiangshen Tower Review: Iron Hand on Little Gu's Bet

The Xiang River swelled at night, the lanterns of Jiangshen Tower swaying with warm yellow light. Iron Hand sat alone by the window, spinning a polished iron marble between his fingers, two sheets of paper spread on the table—one was Little Gu's PDD quote sheet from back then, the other a later-copied stock price chart.

Footsteps came from the stairwell—it was Cold Blood returning from patrol. Seeing Iron Hand staring at the papers, he pulled up a chair: "Still thinking about that kid Gu?"

Iron Hand nodded, pointing at the red-circled numbers on the quote sheet: "His bet wasn't unwarranted, but it was a pity he lost."

"A pity?" Cold Blood raised an eyebrow. "Betting his entire fortune without leaving an exit—clearly a gambler's move."

"No." Iron Hand set the marble down with a thud. "He got three layers right, three layers wrong, and ultimately fell on one layer."

"Do tell."

"The three right layers: First, he saw through Pinduoduo's fundamentals—back then its PE was in the teens, cash reserves were ample, and Temu, though burning cash, had overseas markets. That's the foundation of value. Second, he saw through the chess game of Chinese concept stocks—if the leader falls, the sector collapses, and regulatory knives won't fall lightly. That's the game of sentiment. Third, he saw through market panic—when bad news floods the sky, it's precisely the trough of valuations. That's the momentum of timing."

Iron Hand paused, then pointed at the steep drop on the chart: "The three wrong layers: First, mistaking 'the knife is suspended' for 'the knife won't fall,' not realizing overseas regulatory storms are never about personal grudges—you can't dodge them just by calculating sentiment. Second, mistaking 'low valuation' for 'will rise,' underestimating the slow bleed of slowing earnings growth. Third, mistaking 'reckless courage' for 'confidence,' forgetting that even hunting criminals in the jianghu requires leaving some room for retreat, let alone capital games."

Cold Blood stared at the chart, silent for a moment: "And the final layer he fell on?"

"Reverence." Iron Hand said each word deliberately. "He understood value, sentiment, and timing, but lacked reverence for the market."

Iron Hand picked up the quote sheet, his finger tracing the smudged red ink: "In the jianghu, even the most skilled masters dare not claim they can counter every move. In the capital jianghu, even the sharpest judgment can't withstand 'the unpredictability of the world.' He thought sheer passion could let him bet against heaven, but forgot heaven's might is inscrutable, and rules are merciless."

The wind outside carried moisture into the room, rustling the papers. Cold Blood suddenly remembered Little Gu's retreating figure that day—his blue robe, mud-stained hem, not a hint of dejection.

"He left with dignity," Cold Blood said.

"Dignity, because he admitted defeat cleanly." Iron Hand chuckled, stacking the papers and tucking them into a wooden box. "He lost his fortune, but not his spirit. If he ever returns to the jianghu, remember to keep some reverence—he might just get another shot."

The lantern light traced the grain of the box, which still held the words "Witness" written by Iron Hand years ago. The Xiang River surged eastward, as if whispering that in the wagers of the jianghu and the stock market, there are no true winners—only those who know when to advance or retreat, and who keep reverence, can walk farther.

Version Two:

Jiangshen Tower: Hidden Weapons and the Way of Stocks

Three months after the comeback legend, the Xiang River warmed, and willow catkins from Orange Isle drifted through the streets.

When Little Gu returned to Jiangshen Tower, his companion wasn't his usual drinking buddy but the wheelchair-bound Emotionless.

Iron Hand had already prepared fresh tea. Seeing them enter, he raised an eyebrow: "Today's a rarity—Emotionless actually willing to accompany a stock lunatic like you."

Emotionless twirled a pale-green plum blossom dart between his fingers, his gaze settling on the quote jade pendant at Little Gu's waist—carved with the seal script "PDD," specially commissioned after his betting victory.

"The jianghu talks of blades and swords; you talk of stocks and valuations. At their core, both are wagers." Emotionless's voice was clear as ice. With a flick of his wrist, the dart shot out, pinning a moth to the window frame. "I throw hidden weapons with steady eyes, steady hands, and an unshaking heart. What do you rely on when betting on Pinduoduo?"

Little Gu downed a cup of tea, his eyes brighter than the spring sun: "I rely on seeing through sentiment."

He pointed at the river outside: "That day by the isle, I wasn't thinking about PE or earnings reports—I was thinking about regulators' intentions and capital's greed. When bad news rumors flooded the sky, everyone feared the knife would fall. But they forgot—a knife suspended too long dares not strike. The plate of Chinese concept stocks can't afford to let Pinduoduo's banner fall."

Emotionless nodded slightly, retrieving the dart and running his fingers along its grooves: "The way of hidden weapons abhors hesitation. An opponent's opening lasts but a moment—hesitate half a step, and the chance is lost. When you went all-in, you had the decisiveness of a hidden weapon master."

"Oh?" Little Gu leaned in, intrigued. "Then in Emotionless's view, how would you score this 'Way of Stocks Hidden Weapon' of mine?"

Emotionless looked up, his gaze sharp as a blade's edge: "Steady eyes—you saw through the game. Steady heart—you staked your entire fortune. Unshaking hands—you dared to shout 'it will rise' at the storm's peak. Seven points."

"And the missing three?"

"The missing three lie in endurance." Emotionless said coolly. "A hidden weapon master's consistency doesn't rely on one lucky shot; the stock market's tides aren't settled by a single wager. Today you won with Pinduoduo—if you face a new game tomorrow, can you stay this steady?"

Little Gu burst out laughing, turned to grab brush and ink, and scrawled four bold characters on rice paper: Steady Heart Brings Victory.

"Don't worry, Emotionless—next time I face a new game, I, Little Gu, will still dare to stake my all and bet for upheaval!"

Willow catkins drifted through the window, landing on Emotionless's wheelchair and Little Gu's calligraphy. Iron Hand watched the contrast between their stillness and energy, suddenly feeling that the wagers of the capital jianghu held more intrigue than the jianghu's clashing blades.

Too bad I lost last time. This time betting on Alibaba—will I win?