Stock Live Trading P141: Did everything right, still lost money

Strictly speaking, not a single trade today was wrong.

Today's trades were relatively simple. I bottom-fished Be's options at the open, bought them for $300, and sold them for $500. After deducting fees, I made a $195 profit.

I bought puts on UVIx at $0.21 and sold them in batches at $0.32. I only bought 10 contracts, and this trade also made a profit.

Then I followed the second-generation guy to trade QQQ options. At first, we were getting hit from both sides. Later, during the main upward wave, I got off first because he hung up the phone, and I wasn't sure, so I didn't move. In the end, it still didn't cover the fees. But QQQ was never a good fit for my trading style anyway, so let it be.

During the night market, I bottom-fished Southern Copper at $195 and sold it at $196.2.

Shorted net at $192. It stubbornly refused to go below $190, so I took a $35 profit and ran. After I left, it dropped to $185... but later rose to $197.

Went long on silver around $69 and made a few tens of dollars before exiting.

Actually, strictly speaking, not a single trade today was wrong.
But not being wrong doesn't mean being right. I still lost money today because I held out-of-the-money options for Albemarle and Be from yesterday. The time value yesterday was terrifyingly high due to the high IV. Today, their gains didn't cover the IV, resulting in a huge loss. Also, there are areas in today's trades worth optimizing. First, I bought Southern Copper too early. During the night market, I observed that mining stocks were rebounding and thought Southern Copper would too, so I bought. Second, I didn't choose AA. Actually, AA gave a good dip-buying opportunity today, which I saw, but didn't have the capital to participate. Third, I chose the wrong puts for UVix. I wanted to short volatility; I should have chosen 1.5x UVXY and bought the $40 puts. That could have yielded at least five or six times. As for UVIx, since I bought near-the-money puts, the profit was small, and due to its low unit price, the fees were surprisingly high.

I also made an operational mistake with Be. I bought the $135 calls and only made $200. If I had bought the $145 calls, it could have gone up 10x, because my expectation was that it would rebound. Since it was going to rebound anyway, I should have just bought more out-of-the-money options because this stock is highly volatile. The IV for out-of-the-money options is still relatively high. Once it really goes up, those options can multiply. My option only went up 1.6x, but if I had bought out-of-the-money, making 3x to 5x would have been no problem. Even if I couldn't get 10x, I could have made 3x to 5x, right? That would have recouped yesterday's losses in one go. I believed Be would definitely rebound in the low-price zone, so I should have just bought more out-of-the-money options. Buying in-the-money can make money, but the capital utilization is too low, and the risk is also greater.

The "old man stocks" remain weak as usual, having been weak for a month. It seems my realization from two weeks ago was completely right. It's a pity I still held onto a bit of fantasy. Looking at it this way, Amazon, Novo Nordisk, Microsoft, Pinduoduo—these stocks have been range-bound for a long time and can't get up.

I also recall my judgment on Pinduoduo over a month ago. My logic was that Pinduoduo would definitely rise because I thought the regulatory sword couldn't fall arbitrarily, so there was no reason to suppress Pinduoduo's stock price due to this negative news. But now it seems I was both right and wrong. Right in that my logic was correct; wrong in that Pinduoduo's weakness isn't due to regulation or a broken connection behind it, but because it's not a mainline stock. Capital is just using this as an excuse to drain liquidity. I can see it clearly; can't the people on Wall Street see it? They're just using this as an excuse to retreat, letting those who think they're clever, like me, take over. Similarly, Trip.com's regulation landed quickly, but its stock price didn't go up. Why? Because capital withdrew. Others don't care about regulation; they're just finding an excuse to escape and choose a more suitable track.

Including those software giants that fell—it might all be ghost stories. But they can't go back up. Why? Capital doesn't want to go back. Everyone knows it's a ghost story, but big money just wants to run because they think these giants have exhausted their potential. What should fall has fallen; it's that simple. They're just using the news to run, no matter how abstract or exaggerated the news is. You think it's funny and then go in to take over—you've been fooled.

Finally, only $70,000 is left. I never thought that in a year, I'd go from a dashing young man in fine clothes to a down-and-out old man. Fate shapes things, and fate also plays with people.