今年是我最艰难的一年。没有风流倜傥，没有风花雪月，没有笑傲江湖，没有环游世界，只有泪和血。新年的时候我写了 2025 年的复盘，踌躇满志，以为 2026 要大干一场。结果还没到春节就已经折戟沉沙。前任把我扫地出门的时候，我还在笑她——莫欺少年穷。我觉得自己已经跌到谷底了，跌无可跌，马上就要反弹，朱买臣、苏秦的故事就要重演。没想到地狱之下还有地狱。从被扫地出门到今天，我又往下掉了十几层：从手上还有几十万...
+7The daily chart has fallen for 6 consecutive days, and the monthly chart has fallen for several months. Since March, oil, defense, and precious metals have all experienced small gains on positive news, only to accelerate their decline. In recent days, even positive news can't drive the market up. The strait closed on Sunday, and I laughed heartily waiting to share the spoils, but on Monday's opening, oil and gold both plummeted. The market has become immune to positive news. As a seasoned investor, this scene feels familiar. I recall Li Mi during the Battle of Luoyang, Bitcoin in 2025, and my analysis from half a year ago. Once confidence is lost, no amount of positive news is useful; the market will only continue its slow, steady decline...
People like to judge heroes by success or failure, but is this result-oriented view really correct? I adhere to the truth and uphold the right path. Am I really wrong? Knowing full well that it's the tail end of a bull market and the bubble could burst at any moment, isn't chasing tech and storage stocks in a herd mentality at this time the real gambler's behavior? I hold fast to gold and oil, adhering to the true path. I'm always the one who sows seeds in spring. There's nothing wrong with sowing in spring; the mistake lies in leaving after sowing, letting others reap all the fruits. My vision isn't the problem, but I just lack a bit of luck and a bit of patience. These past few days, everyone online has been talking about South Korea's 'golden age'. I saw it and couldn't help but laugh wryly...
While washing my face, I discovered an extra white hair at my temple. I plucked it out and rubbed it repeatedly in my hand, filled with emotion. Not even thirty yet, but already sprouting white hairs. Thinking about these years of stock trading, it's been a life of constant upheaval, reversed day and night, staying up until three or four every morning, a rollercoaster of tension, excitement, and wild mood swings, cholesterol levels through the roof, only to end with such a dismal outcome. Probably the only thing in the world where effort and reward are completely out of proportion is stock trading. What can stock trading bring? For most people, it brings empty pockets and a prematurely aged face. The lucky ones are a tiny minority, but everyone thinks they're one of them...
Haven't written a review for several days. First, I've been really busy lately, and second, I've been binge-watching dramas, completely mesmerized by Liu Haocun's looks. Now, calming down to think about it, everything in the world is interconnected. Hot stocks are like female celebrities, commanding a high premium. In extreme cases, they can even be hyped to 10 or even 100 times their premium. Once she ages and loses her charm (no new stories), or a more attractive beauty appears in the market (sector rotation), she falls out of favor (stock price plummets). The once-popular stablecoins, Xiaomi, Pop Mart, are all like that. Value stocks are like girls with good fundamentals but who don't like to wear makeup, photoshop pictures, or rely on their looks for a living, preferring a homebody lifestyle...
Although the indices keep hitting new highs, anyone with eyes can see that the US stock market is only experiencing a structural bull market in storage and semiconductors, and there are even many "golden pits" appearing. Many, many stocks have already reached my buying points, but I don't have the money to buy them. Microsoft, Alibaba, Uber. The prices of these few are very attractive. If I had money, I would buy them at this price without thinking. Synopsys, NVIDIA's "son" crwv, Novo Nordisk is also about to reach my buying point if it falls a bit more. This includes my previous judgment that Amazon's stock price would definitely crash. Now Amazon at 237 has retreated more than a dozen points from its high, which also proves my judgment was correct. My only mistake was not shorting it...
It goes up, it goes down, it's the same story every day. When it falls, I want to bottom-fish, but I have no money to buy. When it rises, it doesn't reach my cost basis, and I don't want to cut my losses. It fluctuates back and forth below my cost line, like teasing a monkey, not only can't I make a single cent, but I also have to pay interest. It's really torturous. Having ammunition (cash) is really important. If I still had ammunition to bottom-fish now, I would have made a killing doing day trades these past few days. Unfortunately, there are no 'ifs'.
When the market crashes, I lose big; when the market soars, I still lose a bit. I'm in no mood to watch the market anymore. Everyone says the A-share market only has one pair of pants, with only one sector rising at a time, but I think the US stock market is pretty much the same. After memory chips fall, they always rebound and recover quickly. But what about precious metals, defense stocks, and the weaker stocks among the "Magnificent Seven"? They just fall without any recovery. When the market crashes, these old-timer stocks get sold off. When the market soars, all the money chases those memory chips, and the old-timer stocks get sold off even more. Whether the market is up or down, the old-timer stocks are always the ones being abandoned...
I am aloof and proud; even if a celestial being were to pat my head, I would insist on forging my own path of the sword. Now the sword is broken, and with it, the swordsman. I was once a man of peerless talent and supreme intelligence, a master of refined arts. Now I endure humiliation to survive, impoverished and destitute, forced to accept handouts. A knight-errant wronged, a pearl obscured by dust, a treasured sword sheathed. I was always a man out of step with the times. If my way cannot prevail, I will let down my hair, set sail in a small boat upon the sea, weep and sing to my heart's content, and roam the world. Would that not be joyous? Would it not surpass the mediocrity of this world? Even in death, I will not admit defeat! I have nothing, am burdened with debt, abandoned by all, utterly alone. But I still have poetry, I still have dreams, I still have songs. My ambition is to stage a comeback, to soar like an eagle across the world, with a spirit that devours thousands of miles like a tiger...
Suddenly it feels so funny, the hard-earned money I spent 38 days to earn was completely lost in just two days. The stock market sucks the blood of laborers like me.
