[Zhenzhuo Institutional View] Pop Mart (09992.HK): To Face Profit Downgrade Pressure

$POP MART(09992.HK) announced its full-year 2025 results, with revenue reaching RMB 37.12 billion, representing a robust year-on-year growth of 184.7%. Profit for the period surged 293.3% to RMB 13.01 billion, while adjusted net profit also recorded a 284.5% increase. Although the core figures met expectations, the significant divergence in performance details has raised market concerns about future growth momentum.

In terms of IP operations, the core IP THE MONSTERS (Labubu) contributed revenue of RMB 14.16 billion for the full year, successfully becoming a "billion-yuan IP". In terms of product structure, plush products skyrocketed by 560.6% year-on-year, and have already become the category with the highest contribution, demonstrating strong diversified monetization capabilities.

Although China and the Asia-Pacific region recorded stable growth of 134.6% and 157.6% respectively, the performance of the European and American markets has clearly "lagged behind". Particularly in the European market, although the surface growth rate reached 506.3%, the full-year revenue was only RMB 1.45 billion, far below the previously optimistic market expectation of RMB 2 billion. The market has begun to question its penetration ability in Western markets.

Management's revenue growth guidance for 2026 is not less than 20%, which is significantly lower than the market's general expectation of over 30%. This indicates that analysts will successively initiate earnings forecast downgrades, putting pressure on short-term valuations. The current adjusted forward P/E ratio is approximately 13x. Although it is already close to one standard deviation below the average level, investors still need to be wary of short-term stock price volatility caused by earnings forecast and target price downgrades.

Source: KGI Securities