Recently looking at $SMIC(00981.HK), my biggest takeaway isn't "can it rise," but rather: this stock has almost transitioned from a tech stock to a sentiment stock. Just glance at the trading screen and you'll see: when semiconductors heat up, it surges like the village's last hope; once sentiment cools, it immediately starts teaching a lesson to those who chased the highs.

But to be fair, SMIC isn't just a pure concept play now. Its Q4 2025 revenue was approximately $2.49 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, with net profit around $173 million, up 60.7% year-on-year. Its 2025 capital expenditure was even raised to $8.1 billion, indicating the company is making money while aggressively continuing to build capacity. However, on the other hand, it's also important to note that gross margin has fallen back to 19.2%, and the company's guidance for Q1 2026 is relatively flat, leading market concerns about "revenue growth, but perhaps less smooth profit margins."

So, 981 is now particularly like the kind of stock that has: solid fundamentals, but a price that's also quite dramatic.

Bulls believe that domestic substitution, mature process nodes, and capacity positioning are not short-term stories. The cautious ones will say the positive news is already priced in, and the next step is to see if earnings can continue to justify the sentiment. Looking at the stock price, it closed around HK$56.5 on March 25th in Hong Kong, still a distance from its 52-week high of HK$93.5, but it's not in a completely neglected, obscure position either.

My own judgment is simple:

981 isn't a stock so cheap you can buy it blindly, nor is it so bad you can't look at it. It's more like a "popular player with a national team aura"—imagination is there, but so is volatility.

If you really want to get in, don't get carried away; if you really want to be bearish, don't underestimate its resilience.