March 30th | Global Macro + In-depth Analysis of the US Stock Market

I. What is the global market trading today?
Expectations for easing Middle East tensions are heating up.
The US-Iran negotiations have released positive signals, and the market has begun trading the "risk cooling" logic:
Crude oil surged and then fell back.
Short-term inflation expectations have cooled.
Risk assets (US stocks) have gained breathing room.
But note:
This is only an "improvement in expectations," not actual implementation. If there is a reversal, oil prices could still impact the market a second time.
The Fed's path remains hawkish, but marginally easing.
The current core market game still revolves around interest rates:
Expectations for a rate cut within the year exist, but the timing is being pushed back.
Officials' remarks are generally cautious.

Conclusion:
Limited short-term downside, but no real major positive either.
= The market has entered a "period of volatile pricing."
Global capital is flowing back into the US tech sector.
In an uncertain environment:
AI
Semiconductors
Big Tech
Remains a safe haven for capital.
Typical performance:
Capital is "huddling in core assets," not a full-blown bull market.
II. Core Logic of the US Market (Key Points)
The current S&P 500 is at a very critical position—
A trend watershed area.
Key level breakdown:
6720 → Short-term rebound high / resistance level.
6550 → Current core support level (bull-bear dividing line).
6250 → Final defense line (trend life-or-death line).
III. Market Structure Analysis
The current market's essence:
Weak rebound + high-level volatility + sentiment repair.
Specific performance:
Positive news (negotiations) → Rally.
But insufficient volume → Unable to break through key resistance.
High-level capital begins to diverge.
What does this mean?
The market is not in a strong bull run, but rather:
A "rebound propped up by news."
IV. Three Possible Scenario Projections (Very Critical)
Scenario 1 (Relatively Strong): Break above 6720.
If the following occurs:
Substantial progress in negotiations.
Oil prices continue to fall.
The Fed releases dovish signals.
The market could:
Directly enter a short squeeze and attack higher ranges.
Scenario 2 (Main Volatility): Volatility within the 6550–6720 range.
The most likely script.
Performance:
Cannot break above 6720.
Cannot break below 6550.
= Back-and-forth churning + draining sentiment.

Strategy:
Day trading + position control + waiting for direction.
Scenario 3 (Weakening): Break below 6550 → Test 6250.
If the following occurs:
Negotiations break down.
Oil prices surge again.
Interest rate expectations tighten again.
The market will:
Directly enter a wave of accelerated decline.
6250 = Final support level (life-or-death line).
If broken below:
The market may enter a mid-term adjustment or even a panic phase.

V. Core Conclusion (For All Traders)
This is not the main upward wave of a bull market.
But rather: A volatile market driven by macro factors.
You need to remember three sentences:
If 6550 holds = The market still has chances for reversals.
If 6720 isn't breached = Don't blindly chase highs.
If 6250 is broken = Must defend.
VI. Short-term Strategy (Key Points)
On a pullback near 6550:
Can gradually accumulate tech stocks (AI / Semiconductors) at low prices.
Approaching 6720:
Don't chase highs, consider reducing positions or day trading.
If it breaks below 6550:
Stay in cash and wait, confirm support at 6250.

Stocks to watch today: Tesla, nvda, crcl LITE

In summary:
The current market's essence is not a rise, but rather
A market "tugging" between positive news and risks.
A truly major market move depends on:
Whether geopolitical tensions truly ease.
Whether the Fed turns dovish.

The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.

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