每日一波段

Macro risks are returning to the core of trading. If you're still only focusing on AI or earnings reports, you might be a step behind in this round. I. What happened globally today (the main theme) There's only one core event: The escalation of the Middle East situation. The issue of the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved. The US-Iran standoff has escalated. UAE energy facilities were attacked. The direct result is clear: Oil prices surged. US stock futures plunged. Risk assets retreated. The market reaction was also direct: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq retreated from highs. The Dow fell over 1%, marking its biggest drop in a month. In one sentence: The market is starting to reprice risk. II. Key changes at the macro level Besides geopolitical conflicts, there are several other important signals. First...

After the long weekend, market sentiment has been completely ignited. Stimulated by external news, the three major futures indices continued to rise sharply in pre-market trading, once again refreshing their stage highs. The core logic of the global market today still revolves around three main themes: First, AI and semiconductors continue to dominate risk appetite. Asian chip stocks surged overnight, and U.S. semiconductor stocks continued to strengthen across the board in pre-market trading, with the AI industry chain heating up significantly. Especially in the directions of chips, servers, and computing power, capital inflows are very obvious, and the market has begun trading the logic of "Phase Two Acceleration of AI" again. Among them, SMH has already broken through the key pivot high in pre-market...

The market is highly likely to continue yesterday's rhythm today, with an overall structure leaning towards "opening low and recovering, fluctuating and strengthening." If NVDA can maintain its strength without a significant plunge, the technology sector will still be an important support for the index, and overall market sentiment will be relatively stable. The morning session is expected to see repeated tug-of-war around 7400. After retesting and confirming support and hitting the intraday low, the bulls are expected to regain momentum. If market sentiment continues to improve in the afternoon, the index is likely to gradually shift its focus upward, showing a fluctuating upward trend during the session, with funds still favoring the technology direction. Today's expected fluctuation range is close to yesterday's...

The most critical focus in the market today is the just-released PPI data. This PPI data is significantly higher than market expectations, indicating that current inflationary pressures have not completely eased, and market worries about the pace of subsequent interest rate cuts have heated up again. After the data was released, US stock index futures once quickly plunged, turning from gains to losses, but then funds quickly flowed back, pulling the index up again. This kind of "bad news not causing a decline" trend precisely shows that current market sentiment remains strong, with very obvious bull market characteristics. The market logic is now very clear: on one hand, high inflation will suppress the Fed's interest rate cut expectations; on the other hand...

The biggest focus in the market today was the US April non-farm payroll data, which was significantly stronger than market expectations. First, with non-farm data exceeding expectations, is the short-term outlook for US stocks bearish or bullish? April non-farm payrolls added 115,000 jobs, higher than the expected 65,000. Private sector employment was also stronger than expected, indicating that the US economy has not significantly slowed down and the job market remains resilient. However, the real focus of the market is that wage growth has not continued to heat up significantly. Average hourly earnings rose 3.6% year-on-year, lower than expected, meaning that although employment is good, inflationary pressures have not further spiraled out of control for now. In a word, this is a "the economy isn't bad...

The biggest change in the market today...

I. Core Theme: The Middle East situation shows signs of easing, but uncertainty remains. The most important change today is the rapid shift in market expectations. There were reports that the US and Iran are close to reaching an agreement. The market immediately traded on "risk reduction," manifested by a rally in US stock futures, a sharp drop in oil prices, and a rebound in risk assets. However, statements remain inconsistent, negotiations are still in the evaluation stage, and the Strait of Hormuz issue is not fully resolved. In a nutshell, the risk hasn't disappeared; it has just shifted from tension to a game of strategy. II. Macro and Liquidity: Short-term stability...

There's a very obvious shift quietly happening in the market's main trend today. If you're still blindly applying the bullish logic from a few days ago, you'll easily be a step behind. 1. What happened globally today (core) There's only one most important variable: the Middle East situation has heated up again. The market has begun repricing the direct impact of geopolitical risks, oil prices are strengthening, risk-aversion sentiment is rising, and risk assets are starting to hesitate. At the same time, there are several more subtle but even more critical changes: trading volume is declining, the index is rising, but fewer individual stocks are following the upward trend, and capital is flowing from growth stocks to energy and value stocks. In one sentence: it's rising on the surface...

The core of today's market still revolves around three main themes: macro policy, geopolitical situation, and capital risk appetite. First, at the macro level, the market continues to speculate on the Federal Reserve's policy path, with expectations for interest rate cuts still fluctuating. Inflation hasn't worsened further, but stickiness remains, and overall capital is cautious. This also leads to the index level being dominated by volatility rather than trending upward. Second, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has eased in the short term, and energy prices haven't continued to surge, which is a marginal positive for the market. However, this positive factor is more about "relieving pressure" than "driving up prices," providing limited support to the index...

Today's U.S. stock market global situation: The market's movement is not about whether it rises or falls, but about the rhythm. The core variable in today's global market is only one: oil prices and geopolitical risks. Currently, the Middle East conflict remains volatile, energy supply is unstable, oil prices remain high, forming a secondary impact on inflation. At the same time, the market is waiting for the Fed's stance, and uncertainty about the interest rate path is increasing. Essentially, oil prices are suppressing valuations, and capital is gaming expectations. Looking at the market structure, although tech stocks are still holding up, divergence has already appeared at high levels. Short-term funds are cautious, and indices are entering high-level consolidation. The target: S&P 500. Considering the rhythm, today is more inclined to continue the weak structure...

Today, the overall market repeatedly fluctuated around the lower edge of the resistance zone at 7154. After hitting a low point in the morning session, it began to gradually recover. Market sentiment did not show significant panic; instead, support at lower levels remained relatively stable. After filling the gap from the lower opening, the market entered a rhythm of fluctuating upward movement. Short-term funds began to attempt upward probes, with the potential to challenge the key integer level of 7200 during the session. However, it should be noted that today's volatility will significantly increase, expected to fluctuate within a range of 75 to 85 points. The divergence between bulls and bears remains substantial, with the market rhythm leaning more towards a tug-of-war. Structurally, there is a high probability of some downward pressure in the late session...

Can the US stock market's post-session rally still be chased? The core points are actually three. First, the easing of tensions in the Middle East has led to a drop in oil prices. The US and Iran are expected to continue negotiations, and the White House has extended the shipping exemption, causing oil prices to fall in the short term. This is crucial for the market, as it essentially means easing inflationary pressure, which is a direct positive for tech stocks. However, risks remain on the other side. The US military is working on new combat plans, and Israel may resume fighting. So, this situation can only be considered a de-escalation, not an end. Second, expectations for an interest rate cut are heating up. The market has begun pricing in a policy shift in advance, with interest rate expectations trending downward, naturally leading to a flow of funds back into growth and tech stocks. Third...

Today's Global Core News Summary 1 Geopolitical Situation The Middle East situation remains the core variable in the market today. The market continues to trade back and forth between ceasefire easing and potential escalation of conflict. The impact on US stocks is unstable risk sentiment, with capital switching between safe-haven and risk assets. The overall market is driven by news, lacking a clear trend direction...

One, the technical structure of the market showed a typical bearish engulfing pattern yesterday. The high and low points of the day's K-line did not break through the previous day's range, indicating that the bulls are clearly starting to hesitate. At the same time, combined with a doji star, it formed a star engulfing pattern. This pattern appearing at a high level usually means that bullish momentum is starting to fade and bearish forces are gradually strengthening. In simple terms, the upward movement is becoming more difficult. Two ...

There seems to be a lot of information today...

Market information is very concentrated today...

Today's core market judgment: after experiencing a V-shaped reversal, the market has regained strength. The previous decline of about 10% has been fully recovered, reaching new highs. The overall trend has returned to a bullish structure, and market breadth is expanding. There is still room for continued upward movement. What is the market trading? 1. At the macro level, it still fluctuates around liquidity expectations and the path of interest rate cuts. 2. Market risk sentiment has recovered, and capital is flowing back into equity assets. 3. Technology and growth stocks continue to dominate the main direction. Conclusion: Capital is re-entering risk assets, and the trend continues...

Today's In-depth Analysis of Global Markets Must-read The amount of market information today is very large, but the core can be summarized into three main themes: Geopolitics, Inflation Expectations, and Economic Data. These three lines together determine the operating logic of U.S. stocks tonight. 1. Geopolitics: Uncertainty is rising but still in a stage of contention. The Middle East situation is very information-dense today...

The core market disturbance this time stems from a significantly escalated geopolitical news report. According to Reuters, the U.S. Central Command issued a notice to mariners stating it will implement a blockade in the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea east of the Strait of Hormuz. The blockade area is described as covering "the entire coastline of Iran," including ports and oil terminal areas. The notice indicates this blockade will apply to all vessels, regardless of nationality and flag, and will take effect at 14:00 GMT today, which is 22:00 Beijing time. It also stipulates that any vessel entering or leaving the relevant blockade area without authorization...