On Wednesday, April 1st, the key is to clearly explain 'why it's rising and whether it can continue to rise'—keep it short and sweet.

First, let's look at the global situation.

The core variable in the current market remains the Middle East situation, especially the progress of negotiations between the US and Iran. According to the latest developments, there is still no real result between the two sides, and the situation leans more towards a state of "negotiating while gaming." On one hand, the market is trading on ceasefire expectations; on the other hand, it is guarding against sudden escalation, which is also the root cause of recent repeated volatility.

The key point is—
As long as clear signals of a ceasefire or easing appear, market risk appetite will quickly recover, funds will rapidly flow back into risk assets, forming an "exceeding-expectations rebound";
However, if negotiations continue to drag on or even see reversals, sentiment will weaken again, and indices are prone to rally and then fall back.

Now, let's look at the impact on US stocks.

Oil prices are the most direct transmission path. The current oil price remains at a relatively high level, which itself is a suppression on tech stocks and overall valuations. Once negotiations ease and oil prices fall, it would be a relief for US stocks, making the index rebound smoother; otherwise, the suppression continues.

Now, let's look at the market structure.

The S&P has currently returned to the 6500 level, which is a very critical position and can be understood as the short-term bull-bear watershed.

Next, we just need to watch one thing:

Whether 6500 can hold

If it can hold:

The market is expected to gradually strengthen
Sentiment recovery will drive the index towards the 6680–6700 range
Once it stabilizes above 6700, the short-term structure will clearly turn bullish

If combined with "ceasefire expectations materializing," there is a possibility of an exceeding-expectations accelerated rebound wave, the pace would be very fast, and it might even directly challenge higher resistance zones.

If it cannot hold:

The index is prone to weaken again
First, look for support at 6455 below
Further down is the 6380–6345 range, which can be seen as an important support zone for this phase

Looking at the resistance levels above:

First resistance: Around 6600 (short-term sentiment recovery level)
Core resistance: 6680–6700
Strong resistance: 6750–6765
Extreme resistance: Around 6850

In terms of rhythm, the market is still in a "news-driven + range-bound gaming" phase, but it has reached a relatively critical turning point.

Simple summary:

US-Iran negotiations = Current market sentiment switch
Oil price level = Strength of risk appetite
6500 = Short-term bull-bear watershed

Operation strategy:

If it can stabilize above 6500, consider buying on dips
Approaching 6680–6700, don't chase highs, pay attention to taking profits in batches
Once it breaks below 6500, prioritize controlling position size to avoid being passive
If there is substantial progress on a ceasefire, you can follow the rebound wave, but still not recommended to chase with heavy positions

Today's focus: MU and $Tesla(TSLA.US) that were watched yesterday rebounded quite well. Today, you can continue to watch MU and $Tesla(TSLA.US). For $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US), you can also watch to see if there's hope to break through and hold above 290. CRCL can also be watched.

One-sentence summary:
This could be the starting point of a reversal, or it could just be a rebound pause. The key is the 6500 level.

The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Let me tell you here, this week should be the last update. Starting next week, there should be no more updates here.

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