BMNR Extreme Value Deduction 4.21

Currently, the crypto market is still influenced by Middle East negotiations and the Clear Act, but the market has gradually become desensitized to the progress of the negotiations, focusing more on the upcoming statements from the new Federal Reserve Chairman, Wash. Yesterday's post already provided a detailed analysis of the Clear Act's upcoming roadmap, so I won't repeat it here. Last week, BMNR experienced two frustrating surges and pullbacks, but the company also disclosed the precise total number of shares outstanding in its earnings report. Combined with the updated coin accumulation progress on Monday, I will try to trace back what actions the management took and what impact these actions will have.

This Monday, BMNR updated its coin holdings to 4.79 million, with an increase of 101,000 last week, while cash increased from 720 million to 1.12 billion. Considering the fluctuating price of ETH around 2.3k last week, it can be estimated that last week's financing amount was approximately 640 million, with nearly 29 million shares issued. Last week, both BMNR and MSTR coincidentally accelerated their coin accumulation progress. MSTR bought 30,000 BTC, and BMNR bought 100,000, both the highest this year.

BMNR disclosed that the total number of shares outstanding as of April 13 was 537 million, which can be used to calculate a more precise mNAV. Although the mNAV fluctuated around 0.98 last week, BMNR experienced significant surges and pullbacks on April 14 and 17. I traced back the stock price and ETH price at the highs and found that the mNAV was approximately 1.02 at the stock price peak. It was at this time that BMNR activated the ATM, which consequently put pressure on the stock price, causing the premium to fall back to 0.98 at the close. The total trading volume over these two days was 3 billion, and BMNR raised a total of 640 million over the two days. This is an ATM ratio of nearly 21%. A relatively healthy ATM ratio should be controlled within 5%, far exceeding the threshold and significantly suppressing the stock price.

Now that we understand what happened, let's look at the impact of the management's actions. First, the management indeed kept its promise not to issue shares for financing when mNAV was <1, but this also means that once mNAV exceeds 1, there will be intense ATM (last week's two days). This is equivalent to setting a soft ceiling for BMNR's premium. Since the market knows you will issue shares, it will react in advance, selling faster than the market makers, which greatly harms the stock price. On the other hand, through aggressive financing, the management has increased the coin accumulation progress and cash position. Currently, it is still 1 million ETH short of the 5% coin accumulation target. At an ETH price of 2.5k, an additional 2.5 billion is needed. BMNR currently has 1.12 billion in cash, meaning it only needs to raise another 1.4 billion to achieve the target. At the same time, if the weekly coin accumulation progress of 100,000+ is maintained, it will reach 5% in just over two months. Therefore, it is speculated that this situation may continue until the 5% target is achieved, and only then will the ATM be paused.

Currently, BMNR's financing tools still seem too limited. MSTR set a good example last week, raising 2.5 billion, of which 2.2 billion came from STRC's ATM and 300 million from MSTR's ATM. This greatly alleviated the stock dilution pressure on MSTR while maintaining the financing scale, which is worth learning from.

P.S. After research, I found that STRC is a really innovative product. Saylor is excellent.

$BitMine Immersion Tech(BMNR.US)