Likes ReceivedGoing to get beaten up again!
Iran said the Strait of Hormuz has been completely sealed off, and overnight U.S. stocks directly tanked, with all three major indices falling, especially the Nasdaq. The $NASDAQ Composite Index(.IXIC.US) fell 0.89%, dropping more sharply than the other indices. Most of the large-cap tech stocks in the U.S. market were also down. Only the wireless charging and solid waste treatment sectors were somewhat decent, leading gains in U.S. stocks.
Looking at commodities, gold fell 0.93%, silver fared worse, plunging 3.21%. In contrast, Brent crude oil surged 4%, climbing back above $106. Chinese ADRs didn't escape either, tumbling 2.47%. The FTSE China A50 Index initially spiked then retreated, ending with a slight 0.06% drop. Therefore, today's $SSE Index(000001.SH) A-shares will definitely face pressure. Combined with the already poor market sentiment for making money yesterday, my personal pre-market view is to be more cautious and not rush in blindly.
There's also a key piece of news: Suzhou TFC Optical Communication released its earnings last night, which were significantly worse than expected. Consequently, the probability of AI hardware recovering today has shrunk further. There have been many ST stocks recently; everyone must be careful not to step on a landmine! It's already late April, and the financial reports of those underperforming "poor students" are about to be released one after another. Pay close attention to the timing; don't be careless.
I must remind everyone here: Although sectors related to "light" like photovoltaics and optical modules can't be easily called at a peak yet, whether you should buy depends on your own situation. On one hand, many stocks related to "light" have already risen 3 to 5 times. If they correct 20% to 30%, can you withstand it? On the other hand, those who missed out on the "light" rally this round essentially didn't believe in this logic. Forcing their way in now is very likely to mean catching the last pass and getting trapped at a high point!
Although market conditions are different each time, we still have to believe in common sense. The crowding in the TMT sector has already reached a historically extremely high level. This means it's particularly difficult for institutions to add more positions upwards. If incremental capital can't keep up, there will be no momentum for further rises.
However, we retail investors don't need to think that complicatedly; just follow the trend. If the trend isn't broken, hold on. Once the trend breaks, decisively exit; don't hesitate. Those who haven't chased "light" all along shouldn't think about betting heavily now; the odds of winning really aren't high. It's better to stay in those low-positioned sectors, wait for the wind to come, and maybe when rotation hits, you can get a bite of meat.
Looking at the index performance this month, the ChiNext Index rose 16.81%, the Shenzhen Component Index 11.61%, the STAR Market 14.03%, and the worst-performing Main Board also rose 5.17%. Honestly, the indices have become strong to a somewhat absurd degree; this doesn't look like the pace a slow bull market should have at all!
Therefore, the suggestion is: Those who have already made a lot this month should gradually withdraw while fighting by the month-end; don't be too greedy. Often, when the market is most frenzied, it's about to start a significant correction! Those sectors still at low levels can continue to be held. Who knows, maybe one day when rotation comes, you can get a sip of soup or a bite of meat.
Let's also talk about thematic aspects:
1. Computing Power Hardware
With the market falling like that yesterday, computing power hardware was the main culprit! Friends who chased highs probably got a harsh lesson. Remember one thing: No matter which sector, when everyone is paying attention and discussing it every day, it's basically nearing the top, and not far from "graduation" (getting trapped).
The core logic for this round's rise in computing power hardware is good performance. During a period of earnings bombshells, it was a safe haven, which is why major players huddled together to speculate. But now the earnings disclosure is almost over, especially with some leading stocks continuously hitting new highs. Major players are also about to cash in their profits and run.
After this wave of adjustment, this sector will definitely cool down, but it won't directly recede, as the core leading stocks at the front haven't completely broken down yet. For example, the leaders in CPO and computing power leasing even rose against the trend yesterday. Subsequently, it will enter an elimination round. Everyone should focus on avoiding those mid-tier stocks to avoid being affected.
2. Power
The most resilient sector yesterday should have been the power sector. On one hand, it hasn't risen much this round, so valuations aren't high. On the other hand, there was news stimulation, and related positive news came out after the market closed.
Especially green power, which the country is accelerating its development of, will definitely have opportunities in the future. If green power can be combined with computing-power synergy (integrating computing power and power), then its valuation and premium space can be even higher, worth more attention.
3. Commercial Aerospace
Commercial aerospace also fell along with the market yesterday, but I think its drop was a bit unjust, as this sector just started not long ago and hasn't truly exerted its strength yet.
Everyone just needs to patiently wait for it to recover. My expectations for this direction aren't that low.
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