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On April 24th, the main event for the 11th "China Space Day" was held in Chengdu. This year coincides with the 70th anniversary of the establishment of China's space industry and the 10th anniversary of the establishment of China Space Day. This main event is not only an annual "space feast" but is also seen by the market as a crucial node for policy catalysis in the commercial space industry.
According to previous disclosures by the China National Space Administration at a press conference, the latest achievements in deep space exploration, commercial spaceflight, and research on Chang'e-5 lunar samples will be released at the launch ceremony. The market generally expects this to propel commercial spaceflight from the R&D phase into the commercialization stage. This is not without reason—2026 itself is a year of intensive space mission implementation: Tianwen-2 will approach its target asteroid, manned spacecraft missions like Shenzhou-23 will continue, and multiple types of reusable rockets will undergo flight verification.
CITIC Securities stated that the commercial space industry will enter a period of accelerated development. Taking the 2026 Space Day as an opportunity, with multiple reusable rockets undergoing intensive verification, the increase in launch capacity supply will comprehensively accelerate the deployment of satellite internet constellations, pushing commercial spaceflight into a stage of high-quality development.
If policy is the "catalyst," then technology is the hardest "underlying logic" of commercial spaceflight.
Starting from late April, China's reusable rockets will enter a window of intensive verification. On April 28th, the Long March 10B will conduct its maiden flight mission in Wenchang, with the core highlight being the verification of the world's first sea-based net recovery technology. Following closely, Blue Arrow Aerospace's Zhuque-3 Yao-2 rocket plans to conduct another first-stage recovery test within the second quarter. If a full-process vertical soft landing is achieved, the Zhuque-3 will become the first privately-developed orbit-class reusable liquid rocket.
This means that China's commercial space industry will form a dual-driven recovery technology system of "national team + private team." Cost reduction is the core driving force for the industrialization of commercial spaceflight. The maturation of reusable rockets will directly lower launch costs—in the past, high launch costs led to excessive compression of per-satellite costs. Now, with lower launch barriers, satellite manufacturers can adopt high-performance payloads, long-life designs, and promote the normalized deployment of "one rocket, multiple satellites."
In terms of market size, data from CCID Think Tank shows that China's commercial space market size reached 28.3 trillion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21.7%, with a compound annual growth rate of 23.1% over the past five years, significantly higher than the global average of 12.8% during the same period. It is expected to reach 35 trillion yuan in 2026, with a year-on-year increase exceeding 20%.
The GF Satellite ETF (512630) closely tracks the CSI Satellite Industry Index (931594), providing one-click exposure to the entire satellite industry chain. The index has an over 30% weight in upstream aerospace equipment, significantly leading its peers, allowing it to benefit earlier and more definitively from industry acceleration.
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