ACCA releases the Q1 2026 Global Economic Conditions Survey
ACCA (Association of Chartered Certified Accountants) and IMA® (Institute of Management Accountants) recently jointly released the 2026 Q1 Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS) report. The survey was conducted from March 3 to 19, coinciding with the outbreak of a new round of conflict in the Middle East. As a result, the confidence of global finance and accounting professionals has sharply declined, with international and geopolitical instability now ranking as the top risk in their view.
Responding companies are grappling with the fourth global economic shock of this decade, with confidence levels nearing the historic lows seen in the early stages of the 2020 pandemic. The confidence of participating CFOs also saw a significant drop. The top three risk factors in this quarter's survey are geopolitics, cybersecurity, and the economy. This marks the second time since the GECS began incorporating global risk surveys in Q2 2023 that economic risk has not been listed as the primary concern.
Rachael Johnson, Head of Risk Management and Corporate Governance at ACCA, said: "This shift does not mean that concerns about the economy have diminished, but rather a growing awareness of how various forces combine to shape the macro landscape. Respondents noted that AI and cyber threats can amplify other risks, and emphasized that the erosion of market trust in institutions, information, and leadership has become a defining feature of how the world operates today."
Despite a two-week ceasefire reached in the Middle East in mid-April, which briefly gave markets hope for a degree of recovery after the world's worst oil shock since the 1970s, the immense uncertainty clouding the global economy has not dissipated. Even if a more lasting solution can be found in the future, energy and other commodity prices may remain elevated.
Furthermore, corporate cost pressures rose significantly in Q1. The proportion of respondents reporting increased operating costs reached its highest level since Q3 2022. Given the recent surge in energy and other key commodity prices, along with persistent supply chain pressures, cost pressures on businesses may rise further in the coming months.
Slightly encouraging for the market is the steady rise in the global new orders index, which has now recovered to its historical average. The global employment index, reflecting corporate hiring and layoff decisions, also improved, although it remains below the historical average. These results may benefit from the resilience of the global economy before the outbreak of the Middle East conflict.
Alain Mulder, Senior Director, Europe Operations & Global Special Projects at IMA, said: "At the start of 2026, the global economy is performing reasonably well, but immense uncertainty clouds the outlook. Inflation has begun to rise significantly, and the longer energy and other commodity prices remain high, the greater the downside risks to economic growth."
Jonathan Ashworth, Chief Economist at ACCA, pointed out: "The current major supply shock has placed policymakers in an extremely difficult position. After years of inflation above target levels, central bank governors must tread carefully to prevent inflation from spiraling out of control. Developments in the Middle East in the coming weeks and months will have a crucial impact on the global economic outlook for the remainder of 2026."
Click here to read the 2026 Q1 GECS report.
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