U.S. Stock Pre-Market Update for April 27, 2026:

I. Pre-Market Overview

Futures for the three major indices showed slight divergence: the Dow fell 0.17% to 49,306, the S&P 500 fell 0.09% to 7,188, and the Nasdaq fell 0.03% to 27,427. The core conflict is the interplay between the high demand for AI computing power and geopolitical inflation versus high expectations for tech earnings. The market oscillates at high levels, with capital shifting towards a balanced allocation of "core themes + defense."

II. Semiconductor Sector

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) rose for 18 consecutive sessions, setting a record, with its RSI hitting a 20-year extreme, building up technical correction pressure. Micron rose 1.2% pre-market, while TSMC, AMD, and NVIDIA rose 0.8%, 0.5%, and 0.3% respectively, showing a convergence in gains. Intel's AI business exceeded expectations ($2.76 billion) and its capital expenditure was raised, confirming the sustainability of computing demand. However, valuation dispersion within the sector is narrowing, capital is crowded, and funds are flowing into undervalued segments like equipment and materials, increasing volatility risks for leading stocks.

III. Fund Flows

Divergence within tech, with defensive funds seeing a slight inflow. Outflows were seen in: pure software AI, high-valuation consumer stocks, and the energy sector (WTI crude rose 2.1% to $96.3, Brent rose 2.3% to $107.2). Inflows were seen in: AI computing hardware, utilities, and healthcare. The key signal: NVIDIA's gains were weaker than AMD and Micron, indicating capital is shifting towards earnings realization and valuation attractiveness, enhancing market resilience.

IV. Macro & Policy

U.S.-Iran negotiations are volatile, oil price rebound pushes inflation higher, suppressing interest rate cut space but is partially priced in. CME data: Probability of the Fed holding rates steady this week is 100%, probability of a December rate cut fell to 39% (previous 61%), tech stocks returning to earnings dominance. Key events this week: earnings from Microsoft, Google, etc., and the Fed's decision, which will determine short-term direction.

V. Trading Observations

1. S&P 500: Resistance 7220-7250, support 7150-7120. A break above leads to an uptrend, otherwise volatility intensifies.

2. Semiconductors: Monitor volume. A decline with stock divergence confirms a correction signal.

3. Tech Earnings: Focus on AI capex and cloud business from the four giants. Exceeding expectations alleviates valuation pressure; missing expectations may trigger adjustments.

4. Risk Warning: Oil breaking $98, escalation of U.S.-Iran conflict, or collective earnings misses will boost risk-off sentiment.