BMNR Extreme Value Deduction 4.28

This Monday, BMNR updated its coin holdings to 5.07 million, with an increase of 102,000 last week. The cash position decreased from 1.12 billion to 940 million, used for coin accumulation. The mNAV is still fluctuating around 0.98. Meanwhile, 360,000 new coins were staked last week, bringing the total staked amount to 3.7 million, accounting for 73% of total coin holdings. BMNR released an S-3 filing on April 23, detailing the acquisition of pier two and disclosing the total number of shares as 568 million as of April 23. The total number of shares disclosed in the April 13 earnings report was 537 million, meaning over 31 million shares were issued in just over a week. This confirms my speculation last week that the company indeed conducted a secondary offering to raise funds when the stock price surged on April 14 and 17. While increasing coin accumulation and cash reserves, this also put downward pressure on the stock price. However, with 940 million in cash still on hand, coin accumulation can continue. It is expected that the pressure from the ATM (At-The-Market) offering will ease temporarily. But if management insists on accumulating over 100,000 coins per week, the cash will be depleted in 4 weeks, and they will likely restart the ATM offering when opportunities arise.

There are several key milestones to watch in May. First is the markup of the Clarity Act by the banking committee. If the agenda is not finalized and passed in the first two weeks of May, we can conclude that legislation is off the table for this year. Second is the annual index rebalancing. BMNR's market cap already meets the threshold for the Russell 1000. The updated index constituent list will be announced in May, which will trigger a certain scale of institutional passive rebalancing (though far less significant than for the Nasdaq 100 or S&P 500). Finally, the institutional 13F filings, with a disclosure deadline of May 15, will allow us to observe changes in institutional holdings during Q1.

Recently, the rebounds of BTC and ETH have been blocked at 80,000 and 2,400 respectively. It may require a combination of macro liquidity and favorable policies to break through these resistance levels. Otherwise, it will remain a process of sideways consolidation and bottom grinding.

$BitMine Immersion Tech(BMNR.US)