Rate Of Return
OptionsAI revenue growth rate
Is it greater than
AI capex + depreciation + power + O&M cost growth rate
$Oracle(ORCL.US)
$Alphabet(GOOGL.US)
$Amazon(AMZN.US)
$Microsoft(MSFT.US)
AWS:
Largest cloud infrastructure + Trainium/Graviton + Bedrock, stable but needs to prove monetization at the AI application layer.
Microsoft:
Strongest in enterprise AI monetization, with Copilot/Agent/Fabric/GitHub as core, but gross margin faces short-term pressure.
Google:
TPU + Gemini + Cloud backlog driving revaluation, strongest growth rate, but capex continues to rise.
Oracle:
A high-flexibility dark horse amid AI compute shortage, with astonishing RPO, but carries the greatest risks in capex, financing, and customer concentration.
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