BMNR Extreme Value Deduction 5.12

Last week, Tom Lee indicated that as the 5% target approaches, the pace of coin accumulation will slow down. In terms of results, this Monday BMNR updated its holdings to 5.2 million, with a new addition of 26,000, and its cash position slightly increased to 775 million. At the same time, 350,000 new coins were staked, bringing the total staked amount to 4.7 million, accounting for 91% of total holdings, and mNAV rebounded to 1.02.

Since 2026, BMNR has cumulatively purchased 1 million coins, gradually increasing from a weekly DCA of around 40,000 to 100,000, and has now returned to around 30,000. Regarding the change in the coin accumulation speed, I believe it's partly due to the need for premium recovery; the previous method of raising funds whenever mNAV exceeded 1 was too damaging to the stock price. On the other hand, as he mentioned in his speech, the company's initial plan was to achieve 5% in 5 years, but the progress has been too fast, achieving it in less than 2 years. The plan after achieving 5% has not been disclosed by the company yet. With over 5 million ETH already, the base is sufficiently large, and the remaining 800,000+ coins are not urgent. Slowing down the purchases can still attract liquidity and attention by updating the accumulation progress weekly, otherwise, weekly updates would only be about staking yields with even less to talk about. If the weekly DCA of around 30,000 is maintained, the 770 million cash can last a long time, and the financing pressure is much lower. Raising funds to buy coins is the easiest thing; there are also staking platforms, ecosystem development, and other long-term beneficial fundamentals to focus on. I am optimistic about mNAV slowly recovering to around 1.1.

At the same time, the long-awaited markup review of the Clarity Act will take place this week. The legislative process of the Clarity Act can be referred to in the diagram below. It is currently at step 2, and steps 3 & 4 are expected to be completed this Thursday. After dragging on for so long, passage is not a problem; the main focus is on the voting pattern, i.e., how many Democratic votes can be secured. This is because in step 7, Senate voting requires 60 votes to pass, and Republican senators have at most 53 votes, requiring at least 7 cross-party votes, which will be the next major hurdle. However, in the broader direction, I believe that legislative regulation for crypto has become a bipartisan consensus, just like targeting the East, it won't reverse direction due to a change in the ruling party. The uncertainties may lie in some lobbying and interest exchanges.

Regarding ETH's trend, it has indeed been very poor recently, and ETH/BTC has been declining all the way, returning to 0.028. If we refer to history, BTC rises first, and the prerequisite for ETH's catch-up rally is BTC's sideways movement, then funds will flow into the higher volatility ETH. Currently, it seems BTC still has a chance to move sideways around 80,000 to 83,000 for a while. Later, we'll see if ETH can combine legislative benefits for a catch-up rally. If it does, BMNR, without ATM pressure, will also follow ETH's rise more significantly.

Not investment advice.