Pre-market analysis May 13

Market Interpretation 5.13

I.【Today's News】:

1. Trump's visit to China, watch the order signing situation of peer companies, whether NVIDIA's H100 and H200 will be released;

2. Warsh officially takes office on May 15th: Focus on the stance of his first speech, which may trigger severe volatility in US stocks;

3. CME launches computing power leasing futures, the computing power leasing concept is starting to be hyped. Recommended the computing power leasing concept since March;

4. Alibaba Earnings: Revenue fell short of expectations, profit exceeded expectations, cloud service growth exceeded expectations; cautiously bullish;

5. JD.com Earnings: Old stock, exceeded expectations, no innovation, no AI, not recommended to participate;

6. Cisco Earnings (after-hours): Earnings beat expectations, valuation too expensive; waiting for a pullback;

7. baba Earnings (after-hours): Watch cloud service growth rate;

8. SE Earnings: Earnings beat expectations, not recommended to chase highs;

II.【This Week's Personal Operations】: Sharing is for educational and exchange purposes only regarding investment research ideas, does not promise any investment returns. Investment involves risks, be cautious when entering the market!

Overall position at 50%;

1. Vnet reduced position by 1/4 yesterday, cost lowered, surged 25 points pre-market today, this operation now seems wrong. But small-cap stocks are volatile, already have 10 points of floating profit, reduced a bit to lower holding cost; stock trading requires a telescope, not a rearview mirror. Didn't know there would be hype today yesterday,

2. Meta, added a bit, current position 2/6; light position;

3. Closed profit on Oracle's sell put last week, closed profit on part of Microsoft's sell put (small gain), worried about being exercised;

III.【Individual Stock Research】

【Computing Power Chip Related】:

NVIDIA: First choice, position unchanged; if there's a pullback to around 180, it's a chance to get in;

amd\avgo\mrvl: Wait for the next chance to get in; the market is very FOMO, can't wait in the short term;

【Computing Power Leasing Concept】: Key operation in May, surged

Microsoft: Large model price increase, computing power price increase; hold and wait for rise; target price 500 by 2027;

Oracle: Just hold and wait for rise; target price 250 by 2027; hold and wait for rise;

Meta: Market doesn't recognize capital expenditure, got in at 600 for a base position; light position operation;

【Others Entering Watchlist】

Netflix: Already built a position, floating profit of 4 points

PDD:

LLY: Many fans have gotten in;

NVO:

VST:

CEG:

Nokia: Waiting for a pullback opportunity;

【Hong Kong Stocks & China Concepts】

Tencent: Get in at 450/400/350, almost at 450, no chips, large model is average, I personally won't participate

baba: 120/110/100, the only one with full-stack AI; high volatility, Alibaba Cloud is number one in domestic cloud services;

SMIC: Around 55

VNET: Computing power leasing concept, built position on May 4th, around 8.43, added at 8.6, light position participation; surged 18 points

IV.【Q&A】

1. Warsh takes office, the market will pull back, need to reduce position? Should NVIDIA be sold?

A: Selling stocks is a very complex decision-making process, far more difficult than buying stocks. Briefly analyze several dimensions to consider: position, fundamentals, holding experience;