Overall, there is a slight profit. This is also the awkwardness 😳 I mentioned before—I didn't calculate properly, wasting this South Copper cycle. Planning to hold for another couple of days to see.
195 has a slight profit, didn't manage to day trade. Sold 2 contracts at 11.8, couldn't buy them back at 10.6 or 10.8.
The 220 position is still 1 yuan away from breaking even.
Last night, it was all thanks to $Southern Copper(SCCO.US)$Berkshire Hathaway B(BRK.B.US)
that the situation was stabilized.
Hope to keep up the momentum. Southern Copper can sell off a portion when it reaches 195. Thought about it, still didn't manage to grasp the cycles of these two targets well. Need to be patient and also do the calculations properly.
$Microsoft(MSFT.US)
Add a bit whenever Microsoft dips slightly, mainly entered too early. Didn't expect it to almost become the second largest position. Planning to clear out most of it next time it hits 433.
$AMD(AMD.US)
Still holding strong. Dropped to 426 and bounced back to 447. Woke up in the middle of the night and bought one 435c option with a strike price of 525 for $25.
Navigating through the fog requires enduring some pressure. Controlling position size to ensure staying in the game is crucial.
A-shares are also estimated to face pressure today. The trends in photonics and memory are still there.
$MP Materials(MP.US)
Bought $20,000 worth of options across various batches at $90. Bullish on breaking through $100 in December.
Earnings Beat: Turning point from loss to profit (EPS Beat)
Data: MP's just-released Q1 earnings report shows EPS of $0.03 (market expectation was a loss of $0.01), revenue of $90.65M (expectation was $73.57M), significantly exceeding expectations by 400%.
Significance: This proves MP has developed strong self-sustaining capabilities amidst rare earth price volatility. The market has already repriced it from a "high-risk startup miner" to a "stable growth company".
2. "National Team" Entry: The Pentagon's $400 Million Endorsement
Core Positive: The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) not only invested $400 million in MP (approx. 15% stake) but also provided an extremely solid **"price floor" agreement**:
Price Guarantee Contract: The Pentagon guarantees to purchase MP's neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide at a floor price of $110/kg for the next 10 years.
Counter-Cyclical: This "administrative price guarantee" directly hedges against the volatility risk of rare earth spot prices, turning MP into a defense asset with a built-in "dividend attribute".
3. The Commercial Closed Loop of "Apple Chain" and "Auto Chain"
Apple Prepayment: The $200M prepayment from Apple has begun converting into production capacity at the Texas factory, specifically supplying micro-magnets for iPhones.
GM Delivery: General Motors (GM) confirmed it will officially use magnets produced by MP in its EV models later this year. This means MP has officially transitioned from "mining and selling mud" to "selling high-margin components".
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