$Rocket Lab(RKLB.US) My take: The direction of this tweet is basically correct, but the wording is too absolute. RKLB is not experiencing a typical rebound now, but rather a combination of "post-earnings revaluation + momentum funds + short covering/trend trading"; however, it cannot be simplistically equated to "institutions are still frantically grabbing your shares."

I would judge it this way: It remains strong, but the risk has shifted from "misjudging the company" to "chasing highs/volatility management."

The strength shown in the chart is valid. Longbridge data shows:

RKLB closed at 132.55 on May 14, daily gain +6.77%,

Closed at 78.58 on May 7 → 132.55 on May 14, approx. +68.7%,

Post-earnings lows for 5 consecutive trading days have been rising:

85.87 → 104.00 → 112.41 → 116.89 → 121.31,

Post-earnings volume dropped from 79.92 million shares / ~3.68x the previous 20-day average on 5/8, gradually to 25.32 million shares / ~1.17x on 5/14,

This indicates: The first volume surge was genuine; subsequent volume decreased while prices continued to hit new highs, meaning the shares haven't loosened up immediately.

So his observation that "this time is different from the previous two new highs" is one I agree with.

But "institutions haven't taken profits and are still adding positions" cannot be directly inferred from the chart. High volume could simultaneously include: long-term institutional turnover, momentum funds chasing, short covering, options dealer hedging, retail FOMO, thematic fund allocation. A more accurate statement is:

Not "institutions are definitely scrambling for shares," but rather "selling pressure is currently being continuously absorbed by strong buying, and trend funds still hold the upper hand."

If you already have a low-cost position, I lean towards not being easily shaken out. The biggest mistake in this kind of revaluation rally is selling the core position too early, making it hard to buy back later. Use "trend break" rather than "it's gone up too much" as the basis for reducing position.

I would watch for three failure signals:

Breaking below the previous day's low and failing to recover, especially around 121;,

A long red candle on high volume, with volume expanding again but price closing low;,

Failing to make a new high for two consecutive days, with rallies on low volume and declines on high volume.,

If these don't appear, the trend isn't broken yet.

If preparing to buy new/add, I would be very restrained. Around 132 is already above the institutional target price range shown by Longbridge: average target ~100.84, highest target 127, current price 132.55. This doesn't mean it will definitely fall, but it shows: short-term price has run ahead of analyst models, and further gains will rely more on narrative, capital, and squeeze, rather than traditional valuation anchors.

My core judgment:

This round for RKLB is more like the market re-pricing it from a "high-risk space concept stock" to:

A scarce US commercial space infrastructure platform + integrated asset in defense/launch/satellite manufacturing.

This is a qualitative change narrative, not a typical earnings beat.

But in the short term, it has entered the zone where "even good companies experience violent volatility."

Now we should respect the trend, but don't get carried away by the language on Twitter.

Action suggestions:

Core position: Let profits run;,

Don't chase emotional peaks;,

Use the 121 / 117 / 105 levels as observation points to manage volatility;,

What truly needs vigilance is: high-volume failure at highs, not a single-day pullback.,

In a word: I will remain bullish, but from here on, use discipline instead of excitement.

— Jason 🍎