BABA up on earnings preview; Xiaomi teases new range-extended SUV｜Daily News Recap

0708 | Dolphin Focus

🐬 Macro / Industry

1. The U.S. OFAC revoked the 60-day general license issued in Jun for Iran oil trades, allowing only existing cargos to be delivered through Jul 17, after which Iran crude exports are fully banned. The U.S. cited Iran’s attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz and failure to honor a ceasefire as key reasons, and launched strikes on Iranian targets.Brent and WTI jumped over 5% intraday on the headline, reinforcing expectations of tighter global oil supply. Near term, this benefits E&P and oil shipping; rising Middle East risk lifts global inflation expectations and compresses growth multiples, so we will track Strait traffic and U.S.-Iran talks closely.

🐬 Stocks

1.$BABA-W(09988.HK)

Alibaba ADRs surged over 10% overnight. The FY2027 Q1 preview highlights discussed in Dolphin Research’s '阿里 2027 财年 Q1 财报前瞻速评' note: core e-commerce remains soft and is well expected by the market, while cloud stands out, and takeaway losses are guided to narrow meaningfully next quarter to around RMB 10bn.The trajectory broadly matches our and the market’s view, not a thesis-changing signal. The stock was clearly oversold in a short window and is due for a rebound; medium-to-long term upside still hinges on a modest domestic macro upturn in 2H and whether Alibaba’s foundation models and chips can regain a leadership edge.

2.$TENCENT(00700.HK)

Tencent confirmed that OpenAI senior researcher Tian Yonglong joined its foundation model unit to lead VLM multimodal R&D, the second high-profile OpenAI hire after Yao Shunyu. Tian specializes in visual representation learning with ~30k citations, previously at Google DeepMind and OpenAI, and worked for years with Chief AI Scientist Yao.High-end visual talent helps address Hunyuan’s multimodal gap, completing full-stack text+vision capabilities and accelerating deployment of the WorkBuddy agent. This should lift Tencent’s AI valuation and intensify the domestic race for multimodal talent.

3.$XIAOMI-W(01810.HK)

On its auto WeChat, Xiaomi teased a new SKYNOMAD line after SU7 and YU7; the Chinese name is rumored as '寻天' and it is unclear if it will be a standalone sub-brand. Positioned as a 5.2–5.3m mid-to-large EREV SUV vs. Li Auto L9 and Aito M9, it features a 1.5T range extender and a ~70kWh pack for >1,500km combined range, with launch in 2H26.Previously focused only on BEV sedans, Xiaomi is entering the popular family EREV track, rounding out the portfolio and offsetting BEV price wars. The stock rose nearly 10% today.

4.$KUAISHOU-W(01024.HK)

Kuaishou said it will inject its AI video biz Keling AI into wholly owned unit Beijing Keling Intelligence, while launching an up-to $3bn external capital raise at a $18bn post-money valuation. BAT and state-backed funds will co-invest; Kuaishou retains 68.33% and will keep consolidating results.Post-spin, Keling gains independent equity incentives and financing channels, with proceeds for video model iteration and overseas commercialization, and an IPO buyback clause before 2031. Independent capitalization should re-rate Kuaishou’s AI assets and validate the commercial potential of domestic AIGC video, supporting higher multiples across multimodal generation.

5.$Netflix(NFLX.US) $Disney(DIS.US)

Media reports say Netflix, Disney, and Alphabet’s YouTube plan to bid for U.S. rights to the 2030 and 2034 FIFA World Cups, with Amazon and Apple likely to join. The budget cap is up to $2bn per edition for bilingual rights, with talks to begin within three months.Fox holds U.S. English rights for 2026; streamers are leaning into sports to drive subs and ad revenue. Rights inflation will pressure streaming margins near term, but should improve user retention long term and lift sentiment across U.S. media/streaming.

6.$Alphabet(GOOGL.US)

Google sent invites for its 'Made by Google' event at 6pm ET on Aug 12 in New York, unveiling Pixel 11, Pro, Pro XL, and the new Pro Fold. The lineup drops the 128GB base, starting at 256GB, with major upgrades to imaging and on-device AI, and lands ahead of Apple’s fall iPhone launch.An early foldable flagship aims to capture the high-end window and deepen Google’s on-device AI hardware ecosystem. This could catalyze a re-rating across U.S. consumer electronics and mobile AI supply chains.

🐬 Top Gainers

A-shares: Stadiums and other leisure facilities, cloud & data centers. Internet content & info.

HK: System software, retailers. Storage hardware & peripherals.

U.S.: Integrated oil & gas, E&P. Midstream and storage.

🐬 Watch Tomorrow

1) China Jun CPI YoY. In focus.

Risk disclosure and statement: 海豚研究免责声明及一般披露