$Z.AI(02513.HK)

Growth slope is slowing, in a news vacuum, taking profits for now.

1. ARR growth slope has slowed significantly; the biggest risk in the earnings report that many missed: 250mn in March, 1bn in July, 1.6bn in August, and an estimated 2.4bn in December. Growth was 4x from Mar to Jul but only 1.5x from Aug to Dec. With such a sharp deceleration, using 1bn as the pivot, Zhipu outpaced A before hitting 1bn but lagged clearly after. At this valuation, the stock is simply too expensive.

2. The next two months are a news vacuum—no new models, no earnings. Only O and A's new models, IPOs, and Kimi DS's latest funding moves will drive sentiment. Essentially, we're speculating on Zhipu's value based on others' valuations, which is precisely the most dangerous approach.

That's it for now. Wrapping up to rest a bit.