<p>Citigroup and Goldman Sachs' two tech conferences are shaping the trajectory of AI computing power for the second half of the year.</p>

Citigroup is September 8–10 (US Eastern Time); Goldman Sachs is September 8–11 (US Pacific Time). The catalytic priority ranking for the conference is: AI networking and custom chips, AI cloud revenue realization, storage pricing and long-term contracts, followed by power supply, cooling, and AI software commercialization.

All times below are converted to Beijing Time.

1. AI Networking & Custom Chips: Most Valuable for Cross-Validating the Industry Chain

Key focus on AVGO, MRVL, ANET, CRDO, ALAB, LITE, CLS.

This schedule places Google Cloud, Broadcom, Marvell, Arista, NVIDIA, along with interconnect chip, optical communication, and server suppliers in the same week, addressing two distinct questions: whether AI spending continues to grow, and whose revenue ultimately captures that growth.

The baseline is already high: Broadcom reported on September 2 that its Q3 AI semiconductor revenue was $16.7bn, with Q4 expected to reach $21.7bn. Thus, "strong AI demand" is already public knowledge; new catalysts from the conference should come from more specific customer details, mass production timelines, or long-term growth prospects.

Key Focus Areas:

Custom Chips: Whether new projects enter mass production and contribute to revenue ahead of schedule, rather than just securing design wins.

Network Upgrades: Whether 800G/1.6T transitions from validation to large-scale delivery, and if the customer base expands.

Supplier Share: Whether the application boundaries for Ethernet, copper interconnects, pluggable optical modules, and co-packaged optics have shifted. Technological upgrades do not necessarily benefit all suppliers simultaneously.

Key Times: Broadcom 9/9 03:25; Marvell (Citigroup session) 9/9 23:30; NVIDIA 9/10 23:50; Credo 9/11 01:50.

2. AI Cloud: For NBIS and CRWV, the Key is Delivery and Revenue Collection

Key focus on NBIS, CRWV, using commentary from IREN, APLD to verify data center and power delivery status.

This group is most likely to generate significant company-level incremental value, as new contracts, power-on timelines, and financing arrangements could directly alter the path to revenue realization. CoreWeave's Q2 revenue was $2.575bn, while still facing substantial financing needs; Nebius announced in August the completion of approximately $5.75bn in convertible bond financing. These backgrounds imply that simply expanding investment scale is insufficient to constitute a positive catalyst.

Signals truly worth tracking include:

New customer contracts simultaneously disclosing service launch dates, minimum purchase commitments, and prepayments.

Under-construction capacity powered on early, with corresponding customers already identified.

Upward revisions to revenue outlook, alongside improvements in funding gaps, financing costs, or customer concentration.

Counter-signals would be: larger contract values but delayed revenue start dates; increased capex without matching funding or customer commitments. Signed contracts, powered-on capacity, and recognized revenue must be analyzed separately.

Key Times: CoreWeave 9/9 04:45; Nebius (Goldman Sachs session) 9/9 06:45, (Citigroup session) 9/9 22:50; IREN 9/10 06:05.

3. Storage: SNDK Priority, WDC & STX for Assessing Demand Breadth

Whether storage demand can continuously translate into profit through pricing, product mix, and long-term contracts.

Sandisk's recent earnings report disclosed that Q4 revenue grew 51% QoQ, with roughly two-thirds driven by price increases; the company also disclosed five new business model agreements. Therefore, a strong baseline for price hikes and long-term contracts already exists pre-conference.

The most valuable information from the conference will be: which quarters the price increases extend into, how much capacity is covered by long-term contracts, when enterprise-grade product certifications convert to shipments, and whether capacity expansion alters supply-demand dynamics.

Key Times:

SNDK (Citigroup session): 9/9 00:35; (Goldman Sachs session): 9/10 02:30.

WDC (Citigroup session): 9/9 20:50.

STX (Citigroup session): 9/9 22:50; (Goldman Sachs session): 9/11 01:10.

4. Power, Cooling & Servers: Watching Bottlenecks Convert to Profit

Key focus on VRT, DELL, FLEX; cross-referencing with AI cloud companies to validate demand.

The critical distinction is: power shortages may delay cloud companies' revenue, but only executable orders can increase equipment companies' revenue.

VRT has already raised full-year key metrics in its Q2 earnings report; thus, this session should 重点 listen for order conversion, liquid cooling delivery, capacity, and further margin improvements. For DELL, it is crucial to distinguish between AI server order growth and corresponding profit contribution; one cannot directly equate order value growth with profitability growth.

Key Times: VRT 9/9 01:50; DELL (Goldman Sachs session) 9/10 03:25; FLEX 9/10 05:25.

Positive triggers for this group include simultaneous improvements in orders, delivery, and margins; project delays, cost increases, or rising shares of low-margin orders may constitute negative catalysts.

5. AI Software: Opportunity Exists, but Paid Data Matters More Than Product Stories

Key focus on SNOW, NOW, DDOG, CRM.

The following changes would serve as stronger catalysts:

AI products driving quantifiable new consumption or paid revenue.

Transition from trial to production deployment, accompanied by upselling and renewals.

AI fee growth exceeding the impact of existing seat reductions or package discounts.

For example, Snowflake recently disclosed a net revenue retention rate of 126%. Subsequent analysis should focus on whether AI usage drives continued improvement in consumption and customer expansion; increasing user counts or API calls alone is insufficient.

Key Times: SNOW 9/9 01:50; Microsoft (Goldman Sachs session) 9/10 00:30; ServiceNow (Goldman Sachs session) 9/10 01:50.

Note on this schedule:

First, attending a conference does not equal giving a public speech. Goldman Sachs lists Meta, Tesla, AppLovin, Arm, Coherent, etc., in the "one-on-one meetings only" list; do not arrange for definitive public catalyst timing based on this.

Second, a company attending consecutively does not represent two separate positives. SNDK, NBIS, ANET, DELL, etc., appear repeatedly; what truly matters is what new information is added between the two sessions.

Third, A-share and H-share mapping requires re-verifying actual business exposure. Overseas confirmation of improved networking, liquid cooling, or storage demand can serve as industry signals; to map to specific tickers, one still needs customer relationships, product generations, mass production progress, and revenue share. Conceptual correspondence alone is insufficient.

I will first look at AVGO/MRVL's custom chip and network realization, NBIS/CRWV's delivery and capital closed-loop, and SNDK's pricing and long-term contract sustainability.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Tesla(TSLA.US)$Meta(META.US)$Amazon(AMZN.US)$SPDR Gold Shares(GLD.US)$iShares Silver Trust(SLV.US)$Meta(META.US)$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)$Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF(BTC.US)$Circle(CRCL.US)$Coinbase(COIN.US)$Intel(INTC.US)$AMD(AMD.US)$Alphabet Inc Class A(GOOGL.US)$iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM.US)$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)$Micron Technology(MU.US)$Broadcom(AVGO.US)$Eli Lilly(LLY.US)$Novo Nordisk(NVO.US)$IREN(IREN.US)$Applied Digital(APLD.US)$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Tesla(TSLA.US)$Meta(META.US)$Amazon(AMZN.US)$SPDR Gold Shares(GLD.US)$iShares Silver Trust(SLV.US)$Meta(META.US)$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)$Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF(BTC.US)$Circle(CRCL.US)$Coinbase(COIN.US)$Intel(INTC.US)$AMD(AMD.US)$Alphabet Inc Class A(GOOGL.US)$iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM.US)$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)$Micron Technology(MU.US)$Broadcom(AVGO.US)$Eli Lilly(LLY.US)$Novo Nordisk(NVO.US)$IREN(IREN.US)$Applied Digital(APLD.US)