According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Soochow Securities released a research report stating that the total sales of the forklift industry in November 2024 will reach 105,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 5%. Among them, domestic sales will be 61,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 2%, remaining basically flat month-on-month, while export sales will be 44,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 17% and a month-on-month increase of 16%. In the medium to long term, there is still room for improvement in the lithium battery penetration rate both domestically and internationally, which will help optimize the structure and promote overseas expansion.
In 2023, the lithium battery penetration rates (the proportion of lithium battery-powered forklifts in total forklift sales) in China and overseas were 19% and 13%, respectively, indicating significant potential for growth. The market is concerned about risks in the United States, with Soochow Securities estimating that the U.S. market accounts for approximately 12% of global sales and 18% of scale, and its demand for electric vehicles is weaker than that of the core European market. The revenue share from the dual leaders in the U.S. is less than 10%, and the actual impact is controllable. Additionally, as forklifts sold overseas since 2021 age, after-market services will create new growth points following new machine sales.
The main points of Soochow Securities are as follows:
November forklift domestic/export sales decreased by 2%/increased by 17% year-on-year, with domestic demand continuing to be under pressure.
The total sales of the forklift industry in November 2024 will reach 105,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 5%. Among them, domestic sales will be 61,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 2%, remaining basically flat month-on-month, while export sales will be 44,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 17% and a month-on-month increase of 16%. Affected by the sluggish performance of the downstream manufacturing industry and the gradual digestion of small vehicle demand, the year-on-year growth rate of domestic sales is under pressure, but the decline has narrowed: the PMI in November was 50.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points month-on-month, the logistics industry prosperity index was 52.8%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points month-on-month, remaining in the prosperous range; the warehousing index was 52.4%, an increase of 3 percentage points month-on-month. Since the end of September, the macro policy's counter-cyclical adjustment has intensified, with monetary and fiscal policies being implemented successively. The prosperity of the forklift industry, the progress of electrification transformation, and the activity level of the macro economy are directly linked to the prosperity of the manufacturing and logistics industries, suggesting attention to the subsequent trend of domestic demand recovery.
Benefiting from product structure optimization, the sector's performance growth is steady.
In the first three quarters of 2024, the forklift sector maintained steady growth in performance. On the revenue side, due to the decline in the prosperity of domestic manufacturing, the demand for large vehicles decreased, leading to a slowdown in growth. On the profit side, benefiting from high-margin overseas business and an increase in the proportion of electric vehicles, the growth rate significantly outperformed revenue. In the first three quarters of 2024, the forklift sector achieved revenue of 31.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15%. The sector's gross profit margin in the first three quarters of 2024 was 22.3%, a year-on-year increase of 1.9 percentage points, and the net profit margin was 10.2%, a year-on-year increase of 1.1 percentage points. The high-margin overseas business (with a gross margin difference of about 6-9 percentage points between domestic and overseas for various companies) and the increase in the proportion of electric large vehicles, along with a year-on-year decline in the prices of raw materials such as steel, have improved the profitability of the forklift sector.
With the bottoming out of prosperity, domestic policy promotion and the digestion of overseas channel inventory can be expected to lead to a recovery in demand.
The demand for forklifts comes from (1) the growth of investment scale in the manufacturing and logistics industries, leading to an increased demand for handling tools, and (2) rising labor costs, with factories and warehouses requiring higher work efficiency, making the trend of machines replacing labor more pronounced. From 2014 to 2023, the global forklift sales CAGR was 7%, with domestic and overseas rates at 13% and 4%, respectively
In the short term, the domestic industry is bottoming out, with annual sales of 700,000 units primarily driven by replacement demand; overseas demand is weak, and the growth rate of new orders in the industry has declined for more than two years (2022-2024), with a particularly noticeable drop in the U.S. market. In Q3 alone, leading companies Toyota and Kion saw new orders change by -3% and +2% year-on-year, respectively, with the decline narrowing or turning positive, which may reflect a stabilization in demand. In Q4, domestic raw material prices remain low and fluctuate, and the growth of overseas revenue is passively increasing, which is expected to help forklift companies maintain a high profit margin.
In the medium to long term, there is still room for improvement in the lithium battery penetration rate both domestically and internationally, which will assist in structural optimization and expansion overseas. In 2023, the lithium battery penetration rates (the proportion of lithium battery-powered forklifts among all forklifts) in China and overseas are 19% and 13%, respectively, indicating significant potential for growth. The market is quite concerned about risks in the U.S.; we estimate that the U.S. market accounts for approximately 12% of global sales and 18% of scale, and its demand for electric vehicles is weaker than in the core European market, with the revenue share of the two leading companies in the U.S. being less than 10%, making the actual impact manageable. Additionally, as the age of forklifts sold overseas since 2021 increases, after-market services will take over from new machine sales to create new growth points

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Soochow Securities Co., Ltd. released a research report stating that the sales volume of the forklift industry is expected to reach 105,000 units in November 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5%. Among them, domestic sales are expected to be 61,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 2%, while export sales are expected to be 44,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 17%. Despite the pressure on domestic demand, the decline has narrowed, benefiting from the counter-cyclical adjustment of macro policies, and domestic demand is expected to recover in the future

Zhitong

JDTECH

AHHL

HANGCHA GROUP

NOBLELIFT

NARADA

DMEGC

CNDL

NUODE

Toyota

Dayu Irrigation

Toyota Motor

CORUN

TM ADR US

Soochow Securities Co., Ltd.: In November, the decline in domestic forklift sales narrowed, while exports continued to grow steadily