After nearly a 30% drop in a year, when will the turning point for soda ash appear?

Looking ahead to 2025, the soda ash market still faces many challenges. Wang Rui, General Manager of the Research and Investment Department of Yuntu Holdings' Futures and Spot Center, believes that the soda ash industry will still be struggling in a winter phase in 2025, waiting for downstream demand to improve. In terms of operating rates, it is expected that the annual operating rate will be between 70% and 85%. Due to the high inventory levels of soda ash at the end of 2024 and the continued release of new production capacity in 2025, companies may adjust their operating loads in a timely manner based on market demand and inventory conditions. In terms of demand, it is expected that there will be no significant increase in soda ash demand in 2025. Downstream industries such as float glass and photovoltaic glass may continue to face low profits and high inventory levels, with the photovoltaic industry under significant pressure in the first half of the year, and the overall demand increase expected to be limited. In terms of prices, soda ash prices are expected to remain in a low-level fluctuation pattern in 2025. As the oversupply situation is difficult to fundamentally improve in the short term, unless some high-cost production capacity exits the market, soda ash will likely operate in the range of 1,200 to 1,700 yuan/ton for a long time