Cinda Securities: Baby and children's consumption expands against the trend, channel integration reshapes the industry landscape

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Xinda Securities has released a research report stating that it is optimistic about the long-term growth potential of the maternal and child industry and companies that may lead the digital transformation of the industry. The maternal and child industry has shifted from the early "demographic dividend" to the "efficiency dividend" era, where market demand for product research and development, omni-channel integration, and digital supply chain capabilities have become core competitive advantages. Leading companies are expected to break through in the existing competition through technology-driven, ecological collaboration, and the expansion of new consumption directions. Attention is focused on leading companies in the maternal and child sector, such as Kidswant, which is actively exploring the new field of maternal and child AI, and Aiyingshi, which is deepening cooperation with Bandai; structurally growing companies like Runben Co., Ltd. and Shangmei Co., Ltd.; IP operation leaders like Pop Mart and Blokus; and companies with long-term growth potential like Haoyue Nursing and Baiya Co., Ltd. The main points of Xinda Securities are as follows: Maternal and child consumption grows against the trend, with policy dividends and quality upgrades driving new opportunities in the industry The maternal and child retail market is undergoing structural adjustments: a short-term rebound in the number of newborns (reaching 9.54 million in 2024, yoy +5.8%) combined with a stock market of 190 million children aged 4-14 is driving consumption towards children's personal care and smart products, while the scale of China's maternal and child market continues to maintain steady growth. The core driving force behind this phenomenon is the structural changes in consumption brought about by the upgraded parenting concepts of Generation Z. Despite current pressures from demographic structure, the firm believes the industry's prospects remain broad, and ongoing fertility incentive policies may effectively alleviate the pressure of childbirth costs, while the trend of consumption upgrading and the rising demand for quality and safety create differentiated competitive space for domestic brands, which are expected to unleash considerable potential. Deepening services in the main battlefield of maternal and child retail, omni-channel integration creates new growth The firm believes that leading maternal and child retailers like Kidswant and Aiyingshi, based on a comprehensive membership system, professional parenting services, and advantages in digital supply chains, are expected to continue leading the industry development as the main battlefield. In the context of consumption stratification and product diversification, market share will accelerate towards leading enterprises with omni-channel operational capabilities; online e-commerce platforms, relying on precise marketing and big data analysis, are transforming from pure sales channels to "content + community" maternal and child ecological platforms; offline experience stores, through scenario-based layouts and upgrades in professional services, have become important touchpoints for acquiring high-net-worth customers, but balancing experience costs and conversion efficiency remains a core operational pain point. In emerging channels, live e-commerce is rapidly rising due to its instant interaction advantages, but product professionalism and service sustainability still need improvement; community maternal and child stores are leveraging geographical advantages to deepen localized services, with room for improvement in supply chain integration and digital capabilities. Digital and intelligent upgrades in the maternal and child supply chain, driven by efficiency and flexibility The firm believes that supply chain capabilities have become the core competitive barrier in the maternal and child retail industry, with leading companies building moats through digital transformation: (1) Efficiency-driven models leverage intelligent forecasting as a fulcrum, relying on AI demand forecasting and a three-tier warehousing system to achieve precise supply-demand matching; (2) Flexibility-driven models emphasize agile responses, meeting segmented demands through C2M reverse customization and small-batch production. Both types of models require continuous investment in digital construction, with efficiency types focusing more on cost optimization under scale effects, while flexibility types emphasize ecological collaboration capabilities. Industry trends indicate that a combination of "intelligent supply chain + own brand" that balances efficiency and flexibility will be key to breaking through, with a focus on the digital input-output ratio of enterprises and the closed-loop capability of supply chain data feeding back into operations Risk Factors: Policy stimulus falls short of expectations, declining birth rates, intensified industry competition, and weaker-than-expected consumer spending power