According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Everbright Securities released a research report stating that the restaurant market in Q1 2025 is showing a slow recovery trend, with an increase in the number of stores. The trend of affordable dining remains evident, with store expansions in first-tier cities mainly focused on restaurants with an average spending of under 100 yuan, while in second and third-tier cities, the focus is on restaurants with an average spending of under 50 yuan. Considering the intensified policies to boost domestic demand, the terminal consumption in the restaurant sector and supply chain demand are expected to recover subsequently. Starting from the second quarter, the performance is expected to enter a low base phase, and the financial statements are likely to improve. Leading companies are enhancing their internal capabilities, actively embracing channel transformations, and optimizing operational efficiency. It is recommended to pay attention to upstream supply chain-related targets: Ligao Foods, Anjoy food, qianweiyangchu.
<h2>The main viewpoints of Everbright Securities are as follows:</h2>
The restaurant market in Q1 2025 shows a slow recovery trend compared to the entire year of 2024, with an increase in the number of stores
According to the average data on restaurant heat from Octopus Data, the restaurant market in Q1 2025 shows a slow recovery trend compared to the entire year of 2024. Looking at the quarters, the restaurant market consumption was relatively weak in the first three quarters of 2024, while the market heat in Q4 2024 significantly improved, possibly benefiting from the issuance of restaurant consumption vouchers in various regions, along with active holiday consumption. The restaurant prosperity index in Q1 2025 slightly declined month-on-month, estimated to be related to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, but compared to the entire year of 2024, it is still in a recovery phase.
Combining with retail sales data, after the Spring Festival in 2024, under the high base of the previous year, the year-on-year growth rate of national restaurant income significantly declined, but since 2025, the growth rate has slightly increased, with March's retail restaurant income and above-limit restaurant income year-on-year growth rates of +5.6%/+6.8%, showing acceleration compared to January-February. From the store perspective, the number of stores remained relatively stable in the first three quarters of 2024, but began to increase in Q4 2024, with the number of stores increasing month-on-month by 1.5%/1.8% in Q4 2024/Q1 2025, indicating that competition within the industry remains fierce.
The restaurant heat in first-tier cities has increased month-on-month in Q1 2025, and policy stimulation is expected to drive demand improvement, intensifying competition among stores
From the perspective of different tier cities, the restaurant heat in first-tier cities has increased since Q4 2024, with cities like Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Beijing successively launching restaurant consumption vouchers, which may boost restaurant consumption heat.
From the retail restaurant data, the restaurant markets in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, etc., performed relatively poorly in 2024, especially in Beijing and Shanghai, where restaurant income faced year-on-year pressure. With the policy starting to take effect at the end of 2024, demand is expected to improve in 2025. Meanwhile, the number of restaurant stores in first-tier cities continues to increase, with month-on-month increases of 1.0%/2.4%/3.6% in Q3 2024/Q4 2024/Q1 2025, indicating an intensifying trend in supply-side competition. The restaurant heat in second and third-tier cities in Q1 2025 showed varying performance compared to Q4 2024, while the number of stores remained relatively stable, with month-on-month changes of +1.7%/+0.6%/-0.4% in Q3 2024/Q4 2024/Q1 2025.
Categories with relatively inelastic demand and low average spending continue to maintain a high store opening rate
In terms of store opening rates, the opening rates for noodle shops, comprehensive snacks, and pasta categories in Q1 2025 were 10.5%/9.8%/9.6%, ranking among the top in various categories, indicating that the expansion of stores in relatively inelastic demand categories such as low average spending snacks and fast food remains significant
At the same time, niche categories with local characteristics are also maintaining rapid expansion, such as Cantonese dim sum, Yunnan/mushroom hot pot, and Hunan cuisine, which continue to have a high store opening rate.
The trend of affordable dining remains evident, with dining establishments under 50 yuan per person continuing to expand
From the perspective of consumption range, mass consumption with an average spending of under 50 yuan remains the mainstream in the dining market. As of Q1 2025, the number of stores in this category accounted for as much as 70%, with the proportion further increasing. The number of dining establishments with average spending over 200 yuan/100-200 yuan/50-100 yuan/under 50 yuan saw a month-on-month change of -0.3%/-1.0%/-0.5%/+1.4%, respectively. The number of affordable dining establishments under 50 yuan continues to expand, while high-end dining with an average spending over 200 yuan remains relatively stable. However, the number of dining establishments in the middle price range (especially those with an average spending of 100-200 yuan) has slightly shrunk, showing relatively weak performance. The trend of low average spending and high cost-performance in dining remains quite evident. In terms of different tier cities, store expansion in first-tier cities is mainly concentrated in dining establishments with an average spending of under 100 yuan, while in second and third-tier cities, it is mainly reflected in dining establishments with an average spending of under 50 yuan.
Risk Analysis: Risks of macroeconomic growth slowdown, intensified industry competition, and food safety risks

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Everbright Securities released a research report indicating that the restaurant market is showing a slow recovery in the first quarter of 2025, with an increase in the number of stores, particularly a noticeable expansion of affordable dining establishments in first-tier cities. It is expected that as domestic demand policies are strengthened, restaurant consumption and supply chain demand will gradually recover, and performance in the second quarter is expected to improve. It is recommended to pay attention to upstream supply chain-related targets, such as Ligao Foods, Anjoy food, and qianweiyangchu

Zhitong

Everbright Securities: The catering industry is expected to recover, focus on supply chain-related targets