China Galaxy Securities: Parent-child + In-depth experience dominate the summer market, demand for long-term travel in Europe increases

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, China Galaxy Securities has released a research report stating that the summer tourism market in 2025 will significantly rise in popularity starting from late June, with the peak in visitor flow expected to occur in early August. The summer booking surge will begin in mid-June, with the booking volume for flights and train tickets gradually increasing, and a small peak in travel may occur by the end of June. The first wave of peak travel is expected in early July, driven by the concentrated travel of students, pushing market enthusiasm upward. The highest peak in summer visitor flow is anticipated in early August, with sustained demand from family trips. Additionally, the demand for niche deep travel is rising, reflecting a shift in tourism consumption towards personalization and quality.

The main points from China Galaxy Securities are as follows:

Summer heat begins to rise in late June, expected to peak in August

Summer travel is expected to see its first peak in late June, coinciding with the end of the college entrance examination and the vacation of primary and secondary school students, gradually revealing the demand for summer travel. According to Tongcheng data, travel orders from the student demographic are expected to grow by over 50% year-on-year from June to August, with a month-on-month increase of 145% in June compared to May. Overall travel conditions are expected to peak in early August. According to data from Hanglv Zongheng, as of June 9, the booking volume for domestic flights in the first month of summer (July) has exceeded 5.03 million, and the booking volume for inbound and outbound flights has surpassed 3.35 million, with a year-on-year increase of 7%. Subsequent booking demand is yet to be released.

Family trips lead structural changes

The summer tourism market in 2025 is characterized by a "family-oriented" trend. According to the "2025 Summer Travel Trend Report" released by Zhongxin Group, the proportion of family travelers during this summer is expected to exceed 60%, while Qunar predicts this figure to be 54%, both establishing a dominant position in the travel market. In addition to family travelers, young people are the second-largest contributor to summer travel, with Qunar predicting this demographic to account for approximately 35%. Meanwhile, the silver-haired population is steadily increasing, with travel orders from individuals over 50 years old rising by 26% year-on-year, outpacing other age groups.

Domestic travel: Deep experiences remain the core pursuit for residents

With a longer summer holiday cycle, residents tend to choose deep experiences of local scenery and culture, with natural landscapes, theme parks, and cultural heritage sites being the primary choices for travel types. In terms of destinations, data from Lvdong Insight shows that demand for popular locations such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Chengdu remains strong. Family trips are dominated by ecological destinations like Sanya, Beihai, and Zhangjiajie, while student groups prefer destinations that are cost-effective and have a natural cultural distance, such as Xichang and Lijiang.

Outbound travel: Driven by both short and long trips

Thanks to visa-free policies and the Osaka World Expo, the popularity of travel to Japan and South Korea has surged in the summer of 2025, replacing some traditional Southeast Asian travel. Qunar predicts that the top three short-haul outbound travel destinations this summer will be Japan, Thailand, and South Korea. With the continuous recovery of international flights, the popularity of long-haul outbound travel has significantly increased, with destinations mainly concentrated in the UK, Northern Europe, and Eastern Europe. According to Zhongxin data, the number of tourists traveling to Europe in the summer of 2025 has increased by 76% year-on-year, with Northern Europe and the UK seeing increases of 50% and 75% respectively, and the number of tourists to niche destinations in the Middle East, Africa, and South America increasing by 103% and 178% year-on-year, respectively Risk Warning

Risk of slow policy implementation; risk of policy effects falling short of expectations; risk of macroeconomic downturn