According to the Zhitong Finance APP, China Merchants Securities has released a research report stating that the current upward trend has been building momentum for a long time, and platinum prices are expected to emerge from their slump. Since 2022, platinum prices have lingered at low levels, with rigid supply and continuous destocking. Demand is expected to recover in 2025, leading to a significant price increase. The firm anticipates that as production costs in South African mines rise and downstream demand remains resilient, platinum prices are likely to usher in a new round of increases. Major domestic downstream companies include SPM (600459.SH), HOOTECH (301026.SZ), and Kaida Catalysts (830974.BJ).
<h2>Key points from China Merchants Securities are as follows:</h2>
The current upward trend has been building momentum for a long time, and platinum prices are expected to continue rising.
Since 2011, platinum prices have been in a continuous decline, hovering at the bottom for several years. The rising gold-to-platinum ratio has stimulated jewelry and investment consumption, coupled with a recovery in automotive demand, leading to an overall trend of restorative growth in consumption. With rigid supply and increasing disruptive factors, after inventory clearance, platinum prices and consumption are expected to enter a positive cycle, gradually raising the price level.
Platinum has a wide range of downstream applications and high scarcity.
Platinum has excellent catalytic activity and can maintain chemical inertness over a wide temperature range. The overall demand for platinum is divided into automotive exhaust catalysts, jewelry, other industrial metals, and investment, with catalysts and jewelry being the largest consumption areas. Other industrial sectors include chemicals, petroleum, electronics, glass, pharmaceuticals, and hydrogen energy. In 2024, 37% of global platinum will be used for automotive catalysts, while jewelry, industrial, and investment demand will account for 24%, 30%, and 8%, respectively. In 2024, global platinum reserves will only be 81,000 tons, of which South Africa has 63,000 tons and Russia has 16,000 tons.
Platinum prices have remained low and fluctuating in recent years, with surface inventory decreasing year by year.
80% of palladium's downstream demand is concentrated in automotive catalysts, while platinum has a broader downstream application and stronger demand resilience. Compared to gold, platinum has lower production, lower liquidity, and fewer investment tools, making its financial attributes relatively less pronounced. Since 2024, heightened risk aversion has driven up gold prices, widening the price gap with platinum. Overall, platinum has not experienced significant price increases like gold in 2024-2025 or palladium in 2019-2020 over the past decade, especially since 2022, platinum prices have continued to fluctuate at low levels, with global surface inventory decreasing from about 150 tons in 2022 to about 100 tons in 2024. The WPIC predicts that inventory may be exhausted by 2028.
Platinum supply is relatively rigid, with no incremental increases for many years.
In 2024, only 227 tons of platinum will be produced globally, including 179 tons from mining and 47.7 tons from recycling. The total global supply of platinum peaked at 242 tons in 2011, with little to no incremental increase in recent years. On the mining side, South African platinum mines face challenges in expanding production due to factors such as ore grade, labor costs, and electricity supply. Additionally, with platinum prices not rising for many years, there is a lack of motivation for mines to expand. Russian mined platinum is primarily a byproduct of copper-nickel production, which is also limited by basic metal production, making it difficult to see any increase.
Demand for catalysts and jewelry is recovering, and hydrogen fuel cells open up future growth space.
In 2020, due to the impact of the pandemic and the increased penetration of new energy vehicles, platinum used in catalysts dropped from 73.4 tons in 2019 to 57.4 tons. However, as countries generally raise emission standards for fuel vehicles, the demand for platinum in catalysts is expected to rapidly recover to 96.7 tons by 2024
Due to the decline in marriage numbers and consumers turning to gold, the demand for platinum jewelry in China has been decreasing for several years. However, since 2024, the surge in gold prices has led both producers and consumers to shift back to platinum jewelry. In 2024, the demand for platinum jewelry stopped declining, with a year-on-year growth of 26% in Q1 2025, and it is expected that there will be some boost in platinum demand for the whole year. The development of hydrogen energy may drive platinum demand in the long term, with the total installed capacity of hydrogen fuel cells growing by 86% year-on-year in Q1 2025. By 2029, the demand for platinum is expected to reach approximately 14 tons per year.
Risk Warning: Mining production risks, significant decline in downstream demand risks, price volatility risks

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CMS released a research report indicating that platinum prices are expected to emerge from a slump and are projected to enter a new round of increases. Since 2022, platinum prices have lingered at low levels, with rigid supply and demand expected to recover in 2025. As production costs in South African mines rise and downstream demand strengthens, platinum prices will gradually increase. The main application areas for platinum include automotive catalysts and jewelry, with global platinum reserves in 2024 estimated at only 81,000 tons and strong demand resilience

CMS: Platinum prices are strongly recovering, with supply and demand resonance pushing up the price center