According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Huayuan Securities released a research report stating that in July 2025, the Party Committee meeting of the State Post Bureau will be held, clearly opposing &#34;involution-style&#34; competition and regulating the quality of end-service issues in accordance with laws and regulations. Compared to the &#34;anti-involution&#34; measures in the express delivery industry in 2021, the risk of instability at express delivery terminals is relatively high, and the regulatory environment is similar. July and August are traditionally the off-peak season for the express delivery industry, and we may see cities with lower prices and areas where franchisees are suffering losses responding to price increases under regulatory calls. Subsequently, there may be broader price increases nationwide or during peak seasons. In the medium to long term, if continuous regulatory policies are introduced, the industry may maintain healthy competition, shifting from price wars to value wars, leading to long-term improvements in the performance of express delivery companies.
<h2>The main points of Huayuan Securities are as follows:</h2>
Review of the express delivery industry's anti-involution in 2021
The backdrop of &#34;common prosperity&#34; guarantees the rights and interests of couriers, promotes price increases across the industry, and releases corporate profit elasticity. In March 2021, the barometer city of Yiwu took the lead in price regulation to curb vicious price competition; subsequently, the work to protect couriers' rights was promoted nationwide, becoming the largest policy driving force for the first &#34;anti-involution.&#34; On September 1, 2021, express delivery companies in the &#34;Tongda system&#34; responded to regulatory calls by raising courier fees by 0.1 yuan per order, which was passed on to express delivery price increases. By January 2022, the average unit price of the &#34;Tongda system&#34; had increased by about 0.6 yuan compared to the low point in August 2021; the performance elasticity released by the price increase was significant: for example, YTO Express's net profit attributable to the parent company reached 1.15 billion yuan in Q4 2021, a year-on-year increase of 202%, with a profit per order of 0.23 yuan, up 0.16 yuan quarter-on-quarter and up 0.15 yuan year-on-year.
After 2023, the growth of express delivery companies' capacity and share-priority strategies led to a renewed deterioration in price wars, bringing industry profitability close to historical lows again
In 2023, as regulation gradually faded, the express delivery industry entered a traditional path of price competition again, due to the growth in capacity investment by express delivery companies and share-priority competition strategies. In Q1 2025, the profit per order for various companies approached or fell below the historical lows of 2021, with cash flow performance per order worse than the bottom in late 2021, and some companies facing significant cash flow pressure, indicating that the operational pressure on the current express delivery network may be at a historical high.
Emphasizing the current backdrop of &#34;anti-involution,&#34; the State Post Bureau has clearly opposed &#34;involution-style&#34; competition
In July 2025, the Party Committee meeting of the State Post Bureau will be held, clearly opposing &#34;involution-style&#34; competition and regulating the quality of end-service issues in accordance with laws and regulations. Compared to the &#34;anti-involution&#34; measures in the express delivery industry in 2021, the risk of instability at express delivery terminals is relatively high, and the regulatory environment is similar. It is recommended to pay attention to the top-down driving force in the industry, focusing on regulatory trends and price changes in core &#34;grain-producing areas&#34; such as Yiwu and Guangdong, which may lead to specific actions such as ensuring prices do not fall below cost and standardizing courier fees.
In the short term, express delivery prices may see positive improvements, corporate performance recovery, and long-term orderly competition in the industry
July and August are traditionally the off-peak season for the express delivery industry, and we may see cities with lower prices and areas where franchisees are suffering losses responding to price increases under regulatory calls. Subsequently, there may be broader price increases nationwide or during peak seasons. In the medium to long term, if continuous regulatory policies are introduced, the industry may maintain healthy competition, shifting from price wars to value wars, leading to long-term improvements in the performance of express delivery companies
Target Aspect
Optimistic about the performance and valuation recovery of the e-commerce express delivery industry, it is recommended to pay attention to A-shares such as STO (002468.SZ), YTO (600233.SH), and YUNDA Corp. (002120.SZ), and H-shares such as J&amp;T EXPRESS (01519) and ZTO Express (02057).
Risk Warning
Risks of anti-involution policies; risks of express delivery companies' price increases not meeting expectations; risks of slowing industry demand

02057

06123

600233

002468

01519

002120

Huayuan Securities released a research report indicating that under regulatory calls, the express delivery industry may see price increases during the traditional off-season in July and August, especially in cities with lower prices and areas where franchisees are suffering significant losses. It is expected that there will be a broader range of price increases in the future, with industry competition shifting from price wars to value wars, leading to long-term improvements in the performance of express delivery companies. The anti-involution policies in the express delivery industry in 2021 promoted price increases, releasing the profit elasticity of enterprises, but after 2023, the industry has once again entered price competition, with profit levels approaching historical lows

- Huayuan Securities reports that the State Post Bureau opposes "involution" competition and aims to improve service quality as of July 2025.  
- The report highlights that the express delivery industry faces significant risks and price adjustments may occur in low-price cities during the traditional off-season.  
- Long-term, sustained regulatory policies could shift the industry from price wars to value competition, improving company performance and profitability.

Zhitong

ZTO Express

ZTO EXPRESS-W

YTO INTL EXP

J&T EXPRESS-W

YUNDA Corp.

Huayuan Securities: The trend of reversing the internal competition in the express delivery industry is inevitable, leading to long-term healthy and orderly competition in the industry