According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Guosen Securities released a research report stating that the fluorochemical sector performed steadily in July, with refrigerant prices continuing to rise. Data shows that the fluorochemical index rose by 6.29% in July, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.32 percentage points. The retail price of R32 continued to climb, while R227ea saw a rapid increase in quotes to 73,000 yuan/ton due to replenishment demand in the fire protection sector. With the approach of the &#34;golden September and silver October&#34; and the start of the new cooling year, refrigerant demand is expected to further increase, and R32 prices may maintain a strong performance at high levels. Additionally, air conditioning production has been adjusted upward due to high temperatures, and the third batch of 69 billion yuan for the old-for-new program has been allocated, providing support for the industry.
<h2>Guosen Securities' main viewpoints are as follows:</h2>
July Fluorochemical Market Review
As of the end of July, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 3,615.72 points, up 4.97% from the end of June; the CSI 300 index was at 4,151.24 points, up 5.47% from the end of June; the Shenwan Chemical Index was at 3,806.19 points, up 8.05% from the end of June; and the fluorochemical index was at 1,471.59 points, up 6.29% from the end of June. The fluorochemical industry index underperformed the Shenwan Chemical Index by 1.76 percentage points, outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.32 percentage points, and outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.82 percentage points. According to the Guosen Chemical Price Index compiled by the bank, as of July 30, 2025, the Guosen Chemical Fluorochemical Price Index and the Guosen Chemical Refrigerant Price Index were reported at 1,129.02 and 1,883.85 points, respectively, down 2.76% and up 2.24% from the end of June.
Mainstream refrigerant R32 retail quotes continue to rise, R227ea sees rapid price increase due to increased demand for replenishment in the fire protection sector
Zhuochuang Information expects stable growth in the prices of mainstream refrigerant products: the average prices for R32 in August to October are expected to be 56,000/57,000/58,000 yuan; R134a is expected to be 50,000/51,000/52,000 yuan. R227ea has seen its price rise to 73,000 yuan/ton due to the impact of replenishment in fire protection and insufficient production. August is the off-season for air conditioning manufacturers, leading to a decrease in refrigerant demand, but with the arrival of the golden September and silver October, along with the start of the new cooling year, there is an expectation of increased demand for refrigerants. Given the limited annual supply, the mindset to maintain prices is evident, and in the next three months, the price of refrigerant R32 may continue to operate strongly at high levels. As the annual quota for R134a continues to be consumed, the mindset to maintain prices is strengthening, with high price quotes gradually being realized. Additionally, with the gradual increase in export demand in September and October, the market may have further expectations for price increases.
Export Price Aspect
As of the average export price in June 2025, the foreign trade prices of products such as R22, R32, and R134a are still inverted compared to domestic monthly prices due to factors such as customs clearance and shipping cycles, but the quotes for enterprises in both domestic and foreign trade have become aligned. Specifically, in June 2025, the average export price for R32 was 44,000 yuan/ton, for R22 it was 26,000 yuan/ton, for R134a it was 44,000 yuan/ton, and for the R125/R143 series, it was 29,000 yuan/ton
In August 2025, total air conditioning production is expected to be adjusted upward due to high summer temperatures, compared to the previous forecast.
In the first half of 2025, domestic air conditioning production data continued to rise. From January to February, there was a passive reduction in exports, but production gradually increased in March. In addition to seasonal stocking factors, new policies also provided significant support. In May and June, as the 618 shopping festival approached and demand peaked, production showed strong growth. Entering summer, high temperatures in Northeast China, Shandong, Henan, and other regions boosted sales in the air conditioning terminal market, further digesting industry inventory. With the new cooling year approaching and the third batch of 69 billion yuan for the old-for-new program being allocated, stability was provided to manufacturers.
Regarding exports
Customs data shows that from January to June, China's cumulative air conditioning exports reached 41.08 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%. The export market began to decline from May, and in June, except for Oceania, which maintained growth due to a low base, other regions experienced varying degrees of decline. Additionally, with the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, overseas replenishment has come to a halt, leading to significant inventory pressure in some overseas regions. The Southeast Asian market has seen a decline due to geopolitical risks and logistics bottlenecks, impacting supply chain stability. In terms of production, according to the Home Appliance Production Report from the Industry Online, domestic production in August 2025 is expected to be 6.735 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 11.9%; the year-on-year decline in September and October is expected to decrease. For export production, August 2025 is expected to produce 4.708 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 14.7%; the decline in export production is expected to continue in September and October.
This month's fluorochemical news
Dongyang Sunshine's fluorine-containing polymer and supporting project has completed acceptance; Wengfu Group's hydrofluoric acid production capacity continues to expand; Juhua Co., Ltd., Sanmei Co., Ltd., Dongyue Group, Yonghe Co., Ltd., and HCSC have all released mid-year profit increase announcements, with companies achieving varying degrees of profit growth.
Risk Warning: Demand for fluorochemical products may fall short of expectations; policy risks (stricter environmental policies for fluorinated refrigerants, accelerated upgrade processes, changes in quota allocation policies, etc.); global trade frictions and export obstacles; low real estate cycle prosperity; project production progress of various companies may not meet expectations; rising raw material prices; chemical safety production risks, etc

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Guosen Securities released a research report indicating that with the approach of "Golden September and Silver October" and the start of the new cooling year, the demand for refrigerants is expected to grow, and the price of R32 will remain high. In July, the fluorochemical sector performed steadily, with refrigerant prices continuing to rise, and the retail price of R32 climbing to 56,000 yuan, while R227ea increased to 73,000 yuan/ton due to rising demand from the fire protection sector. Although August is the off-season for air conditioning production, refrigerant demand is expected to increase

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Guotai Junan Securities: Mainstream refrigerant prices continue to rise, August air conditioning production expectations adjusted upward