According to the Zheshang Securities research report, the import volume of Mongolian coal rebounded in the third quarter, and the profits from supply chain trade also achieved a rebound as prices recovered. In the domestic environment of &#34;anti-involution,&#34; the output of pig iron remains high. If the coal industry continues to push for &#34;overproduction checks,&#34; it is expected to maintain a tight balance in the supply and demand of coking coal, providing support for coking coal prices, and the profit margins of Mongolian coal trading companies are expected to recover. Recommended Jiayou International (603871.SH) and suggested to pay attention to E-COMMODITIES (01733).
<h2>The main points of Zheshang Securities are as follows:</h2>
Coking coal prices rebounded in the third quarter, and the profit margins of trading companies recovered.
In the first half of 2025, Mongolian coal supply chain trading companies completed business volume and performance stress tests for the Mongolian coal sector. In 25H1, the profit margins of Mongolian coal import trading companies continued to be squeezed, even resulting in negative profits. Jiayou International's coking coal supply chain trading gross profit was approximately RMB 58/ton, mainly contributed by logistics services, while profits in the trading segment were basically &#34;squeezed out.&#34; Supported by long-term trading agreements, Jiayou International achieved a sales volume of 3.4 million tons of Mongolian coal in 25H1, a year-on-year increase of over 15%, with its market share at the Ganqimaodu port rising to 20%; E-COMMODITIES achieved a sales volume of 4.83 million tons of Mongolian coal in 25H1 through its joint venture, a year-on-year decrease of 1%, with its market share at the Ganqimaodu port rising to 28%.
Coking coal prices rebounded in the third quarter, and the gross profit per ton of the coking coal supply chain trading increased quarter-on-quarter. As of Q3 25 (ending September 29), the average site price of Mongolian raw coal at the Ganqimaodu port was approximately RMB 920/ton, an increase of RMB 134/ton quarter-on-quarter; based on the coking coal price index in the second quarter, Mysteel expects the long-term contract price of Mongolian coal in the third quarter to decrease by over 10% quarter-on-quarter. The price difference between the terminal price of Mongolian coal and the long-term contract price continued to widen in the third quarter, and the bank expects that the gross profit per ton of coking coal traders in the third quarter will significantly increase quarter-on-quarter.
The supply and demand of coking coal are expected to maintain a tight balance, providing support for prices.
The supply and demand of coking coal are expected to maintain a tight balance, which is likely to support coking coal prices. In the context of &#34;anti-involution&#34; domestically, on the demand side, the domestic pig iron output remains high, with the average daily pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills nationwide from September 20-26 being approximately 2.42 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8%. On September 25, the coal inventory at the Ganqimaodu port was approximately 2.88 million tons, a decrease of 112 tons compared to the end of Q2. On the supply side, it depends on the subsequent policies and implementation of &#34;overproduction checks&#34; in the domestic coal industry. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, the supply and demand of coal and coke are expected to maintain a tight balance, which is likely to support coking coal prices. However, considering that the long-term contract price of Mongolian coal will be adjusted based on the market price index in the third quarter, it is expected that the price difference in the trading segment may decline quarter-on-quarter.
Mongolian coal import volume has rebounded from the bottom, and the import volume of coal at the Ganqimaodu port is expected to increase significantly in September, with short-term shipping rates rising.
In the third quarter, the import volume of Mongolian coking coal turned positive year-on-year; the import volume of coal at the Ganqimaodu port turned positive year-on-year in August, and the throughput in September significantly increased quarter-on-quarter. In Q1 and Q2 of 2025, the average monthly import volume of Mongolian coking coal in China was 3.62 million tons and 4.63 million tons, respectively, down 20% and 13% year-on-year. As market sentiment improved, the average monthly import volume of Mongolian coking coal in Q3 (July-August) was 5.5 million tons, an increase of 13% year-on-year. At the Ganqimaodu port, the cumulative import of coal from January to August 25 was approximately 2.383 million tons, down 13% year-on-year, with the import volume of coal in August increasing by 1% year-on-year, achieving a positive turnaround
In September, the daily traffic volume at the Ganqimaodu Port was approximately 1,293 vehicles/day, a month-on-month increase of 20% and a year-on-year increase of 85%. The imported coal volume is expected to see a significant year-on-year increase.
Short-term shipping rates accelerated their rise at the end of September, with a slight month-on-month increase in the average for the third quarter. According to the Mongolia Coal Network, the short-term shipping rate on September 29 was 80 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton compared to the end of Q2 2025; the average short-term shipping rate for the third quarter was approximately 64 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of about 4 yuan/ton compared to the second quarter.
Investment Recommendations
The import volume of Mongolian coal rebounded from a low in the third quarter, and the profits from supply chain trade also rebounded as prices recovered. In the domestic environment of &#34;anti-involution,&#34; the output of pig iron remains high. If the coal industry continues to push for &#34;checking overproduction,&#34; it is expected to maintain a tight balance in the supply and demand of coking coal, providing support for coking coal prices, and the profit margins for Mongolian coal trading companies are expected to recover. We recommend Jiayou International and suggest paying attention to E-COMMODITIES.
Risk Warning
Significant fluctuations in coking coal prices, substantial fluctuations in short-term shipping rates, and Mongolian coal import volumes falling short of expectations, etc

01733

603871

Zhejiang Merchants Securities released a research report indicating that the import volume of Mongolian coal rebounded from the bottom in the third quarter, coking coal prices have rebounded, and supply chain trade profits have also improved accordingly. It is expected that the supply and demand of coking coal will remain in a tight balance, supporting prices. Recommended Jiayou International and E-COMMODITIES, with the former's market share at the Ganqimaodu port increasing to 20%, and the latter at 28%. The gross profit per ton of coking coal trade in the third quarter is expected to increase quarter-on-quarter, reflecting signs of industry recovery

Zhitong

E-COMMODITIES

Jiayou International

Zhejiang Merchants Securities: Coking coal rebounds, import volume significantly rises, the turning point of the Mongolian coal import industry chain is approaching