Everyone knows that in response to the recent rapid rise in the market, the regulatory authorities have initiated a series of measures to cool down the market.
In addition to raising the margin ratio for margin trading, another obvious action is the significant outflow of funds from broad-based ETFs recently.
Considering that the holder structure of these broad-based ETFs, which have seen substantial outflows, is highly concentrated in the China Investment Corporation, there is no doubt that the recent redemptions of broad-based ETFs can be attributed to the China Investment Corporation.
So, how much has the China Investment Corporation sold and how much do they still hold? Yesterday, Shanji Shuo's teacher conducted a statistical analysis on how many chips are still held by the &#34;national team.&#34; Interested friends can refer to it.
As a blogger who has been following the movements of the China Investment Corporation for the past few years, I have also updated the data (including yesterday) based on Shanji Shuo's approach, as shown in the two tables below (the first table shows the changes in shares; the second table shows the changes in scale).
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/8903c61a-99f0-4ce1-bfca-798f1a5bf20c.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/8903c61a-99f0-4ce1-bfca-798f1a5bf20c.png"/>
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/5655ffdf-fb2f-4710-aa0b-5dfbee8a78ff.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/5655ffdf-fb2f-4710-aa0b-5dfbee8a78ff.png"/>
Regarding the data statistics in these two tables, let's discuss a few facts:
(1) As of December 31 last year, the China Investment Corporation held a total of 15.3 trillion yuan in broad-based ETFs (calculated based on the shareholding disclosed in last year's semi-annual report). During the same period, the total scale of broad-based ETFs was 25.7 trillion yuan, with the China Investment Corporation's holdings accounting for 59.5% of the total.
(2) Including yesterday, in the last four trading days, the broad-based ETFs held by the China Investment Corporation have seen a total outflow of 294.8 billion yuan, corresponding to outflows of 72.4 billion, 105.1 billion, 56.6 billion, and 60.8 billion over the past four trading days.
(3) When mapping the outflow scale to various representative indices, the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, Sci-Tech 50, and ChiNext Index saw outflows of 18.1 billion, 155.2 billion, 27.6 billion, 30.7 billion, 29.6 billion, and 23.1 billion, respectively.
(4) If we consider the recent net redemptions of each ETF as redemptions by the China Investment Corporation, then: according to Figure 1, the China Investment Corporation has reduced its holdings the most in the Sci-Tech 50 ETF and ChiNext ETF, especially in the Sci-Tech 50 ETF, which is almost fully liquidated; according to Figure 2, 18.6% of the China Investment Corporation's holdings have already been reduced.
Now, let me share a few of my thoughts:
(1) This time, the state has made great efforts to achieve a slow bull market. The recent selling operations by the China Investment Corporation on ETFs are indeed very rare.
If I remember correctly, the last time the China Investment Corporation sold ETFs was in May 2015, and during other times, they have been strong bulls. From the perspective of promoting the long-term development of the market, I strongly agree with the China Investment Corporation's transactions this time. The only downside is the lack of a &#34;reduction announcement,&#34; as the China Investment Corporation has always announced its transactions at each stage in the past
(2) The market trend is frighteningly strong.
Although the China Investment Corporation has reduced its position by nearly 20%, which is not insignificant, the fluctuations of various indices over the past four days are shown in the chart below. The worst performer is the ChiNext Index, which only fell by 2.12%, while the CSI 500 even saw an increase, and the heavily sold CSI 300 slightly dipped by 0.49%.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/3d46ac12-b047-4562-b8eb-6bb4226bd0db.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/3d46ac12-b047-4562-b8eb-6bb4226bd0db.png"/>
The relatively limited cooling effect also reminds me of the past few years when the China Investment Corporation's market rescue efforts were relatively ineffective; despite hundreds of billions being invested, the market trend did not fundamentally improve. This indicates that the power of market trends, or the power of the masses, is very strong. Even a powerful entity like the China Investment Corporation can only slightly alter the market's rhythm but cannot change the market's trend.
In particular, I also noticed that against the backdrop of the China Investment Corporation's reduction, the ChinaAMC and Harvest's CSI 500 ETF are still attracting funds, and E Fund's ChiNext ETF also has a significant amount of subscriptions (though the redemption amount exceeds the subscription amount), indicating that market enthusiasm remains very high.
(3) Will capital outflow bring new investment opportunities?
In the context of the China Investment Corporation continuously reducing its holdings in representative index ETFs, market sentiment remains relatively positive. Will this lead to capital flowing into indices where the China Investment Corporation has relatively low holdings? Besides small-cap indices like the CSI 2000, Wind Micro-cap stocks, Sci-Tech 100, Sci-Tech 200, and North Exchange 50, the reduction in the Sci-Tech 50 is also nearing its end. Will there be better performance in the future?
(4) The &#34;slow bull&#34; has a long way to go.
Everyone is looking forward to a slow bull market, but in fact, based on the performance of the A-share market over the past few years and recently, achieving a slow bull in the A-share market is a challenging task. The A-share market tends to be either too cold or too hot, making it difficult to maintain a calm mindset. Considering that the current relatively large reduction by the China Investment Corporation still has a limited impact on the market, I even worry that a few days later, the China Investment Corporation may lack effective means to cool the market due to insufficient holdings. Therefore, to achieve a slow bull in the A-share market, there is likely still much work to be done, not just simple direct interventions to cool the market, but also the establishment of a sound mechanism for spontaneous long and short positions in the market.
The above is for your reference ~
Risk warning and disclaimer
The market has risks, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment goals, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article align with their specific circumstances. Investing based on this is at your own risk.

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Recently, regulatory authorities have taken measures to cool down the market, resulting in significant outflows from broad-based ETFs, primarily caused by China Investment Corporation. As of the end of last year, China Investment Corporation held a total of 1.53 trillion in broad-based ETFs, accounting for 59.5%. In the last four trading days, China Investment Corporation has seen a total outflow of 294.8 billion, mainly concentrated in the ChiNext 50 ETF and GEM ETF, with a significant reduction in holdings. It is quite rare for China Investment Corporation to engage in selling operations as the country aims to achieve a slow bull market

It's not easy for a slow bull market; how much has the national team sold?