The National Medical Products Administration officially approved the expansion of the applicable age for CanSino's flagship product, Manhaixin, further opening up the market space for the product.
<h4>Key Points:</h4>
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<li>CanSino also faces concerns about its overly singular product structure, with Manhaixin accounting for as much as 90% of the company's total revenue.</li>
<li>In the face of intense competitive pressure in the domestic market, CanSino has long initiated the development of international markets.</li>
</ul>
Molly
The year 2025 will be very challenging for the vaccine industry, as the decline in newborn population leads to a shrinking traditional market, and mature products such as HPV vaccines and flu vaccines are caught in fierce price wars, with the industry overall shrouded in the gloom of &#34;increasing revenue without increasing profit&#34; or even significant losses. However, CanSino Biologics Inc. (688185.SH, 6185.HK), which gained attention due to its COVID-19 vaccine, delivered a report on February 26 showing steady revenue growth and a successful turnaround to profitability in net profit report card.
According to the performance announcement, CanSino achieved total operating revenue of approximately 1.068 billion yuan in 2025, an increase of 26.18% compared to 846 million yuan in the same period last year, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of approximately 27.8727 million yuan, while it had a loss of 379 million yuan in 2024. However, CanSino's ability to turn a profit mainly relied on government subsidies and other non-recurring income. After deducting non-recurring gains and losses, the company's net loss was 92.5007 million yuan, which, although significantly narrowed from a loss of 441 million yuan in the same period last year, still did not achieve comprehensive profitability at the operational level.
The main driver of CanSino's performance improvement is the continuous growth in sales of its flagship product, the quadrivalent meningococcal polysaccharide conjugate vaccine &#34;Manhaixin&#34; (MCV4). As the first and only quadrivalent meningococcal conjugate vaccine approved in the Chinese market, Manhaixin has been penetrating the mid-to-high-end self-paid vaccine market since its launch at the end of 2021, thanks to its advantages of broader serotype coverage, superior immune effects, and early protection for infants aged 3 months.
On February 24, the National Medical Products Administration officially approved the expansion of the applicable age for Manhaixin from 3 months to 3 years to 3 months to 6 years old, further opening up the market space for the product. This also stimulated CanSino's A-share stock price to rise rapidly after the Spring Festival holiday, with four consecutive trading days of increases, accumulating a rise of 12.6%, while the rise in the Hong Kong stock price was relatively moderate, with a cumulative increase of 4.7% during the same period.
However, CanSino also has the issue of a singular product structure. In the first half of 2025, the company's revenue growth was almost entirely dependent on the two meningococcal vaccines, Manhaixin and Meinaixi (MCV2), with this product line generating revenue of 364 million yuan, accounting for 97% of total revenue. Other business contributions were weak, with the COVID-19 vaccine generating only 10.413 million yuan in revenue during the same period, accounting for about 2.7%; while the CDMO business signed with AstraZeneca in 2023, due to the sharp decline in COVID-19 demand, no longer contributed revenue in the first half of 2025
This serious reliance on a single product model not only weakens CanSino's ability to resist risks but also exposes its profit foundation to challenges from competitors. The exclusive market position that ManHaixin relies on for survival is about to be broken: Zhifei Biological (300122.SZ) has obtained production registration acceptance for its quadrivalent meningococcal conjugate vaccine in May 2025, and Watson Bio (300142.SZ) has completed the main work of Phase III clinical trials for its similar product. Once competing products are launched, the market will shift from &#34;one dominant player&#34; to &#34;multiple parties in fierce competition,&#34; and price pressure will be inevitable. The company's high gross profit margin of 79.3% may be difficult to maintain. For CanSino, any market fluctuations or profit erosion of its core products will have a magnifying impact on its overall performance, potentially reversing the recently achieved turnaround.
<h4>Vaccine Industry Faces a Winter</h4>
In 2025, there will be only 7.92 million newborns in China, a decrease of 1.62 million compared to 2024, leading to a significant shrinkage in demand for children's vaccines. At the same time, mature products such as HPV vaccines and influenza vaccines are caught in fierce price wars, with the industry generally facing losses. Zhifei Biological expects a net profit loss of 10.698 billion to 13.726 billion yuan in 2025, while Wantai Biological and Baike Biological expect net losses of up to 410 million and 272 million yuan, respectively.
In the face of a highly competitive domestic market, CanSino has long initiated the expansion of international markets. By the end of 2024, ManHaixin was approved for registration in Indonesia and will officially ship to the local market in September 2025, marking the second overseas venture of its innovative products following the COVID-19 vaccine. The company plans to expand its market to more regions, including Southeast Asia, the Middle East, South America, and North Africa. Meanwhile, the company is actively promoting technology exports, such as launching Phase I clinical trials for an inhalable tuberculosis vaccine in Indonesia and collaborating with Malaysian institutions to develop an mRNA quadrivalent influenza vaccine.
In June 2025, the company's self-developed 13-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide conjugate vaccine &#34;Youpeixin&#34; (PCV13i) received market approval and was officially shipped in September of the same year. This vaccine, which uses CRM197 and tetanus toxin dual carrier technology, targets the huge domestic pneumococcal vaccine market and is expected to become the company's second growth curve.
Currently, CanSino's price-to-book ratio is about 1.53 times, while the leading vaccine company Zhifei Biological has a price-to-book ratio of 1.36 times, indicating that the market gives a higher growth expectation premium for CanSino's innovative product pipeline. In the short term, the continued volume increase of ManHaixin, the market introduction of Youpeixin, and the effectiveness of cost control will be key to whether the company can consolidate its profit momentum and achieve positive net profit excluding non-recurring items, which is worth close tracking by investors

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CanSinoBIO achieved a total operating revenue of approximately CNY 1.068 billion in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 26.18%, with net profit successfully turning from loss to profit, reaching approximately CNY 27.8727 million. The improvement in performance is mainly attributed to the sales growth of its flagship product, Convidecia, which has received approval from the National Medical Products Administration to expand its applicable age to 6 years old, further expanding market space. However, CanSino still faces concerns about its product structure being too singular, with Convidecia accounting for as much as 90% of total revenue

Star product market expansion drives CanSinoBIO to turn a profit