The weekend saw further escalation in the US-Iran conflict, coupled with institutional strategies generally emphasizing &#34;stagflation expectations&#34; and a bearish outlook on the technology sector. Technology stocks have already underperformed the market over the past two weeks, and with the bearish sentiment over the weekend, pessimism has reached a freezing point. After the market opened today, defensive sectors such as liquor and agriculture strengthened, while technology and non-ferrous metals plummeted. It wasn't until near the close of the morning session that the storage sector strengthened, boosting the sentiment of technology stocks. During the midday session, Hua Hong experienced a surge, rising over 16% at one point, further driving the rebound in technology stocks. However, due to high oil prices, the market is not yet fully risk-on, so there is reluctance to push higher. Whether the situation eases tonight is crucial.
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The situation is volatile, and even the parties involved, the United States and Iran, along with major institutions, cannot predict how the US-Iran issue will unfold. As retail investors, it is best not to make predictions or take unilateral bets. A better strategy is to maintain a neutral position, monitor the developments in the situation (especially key signals of easing), and then respond accordingly. Once there are signs of a turning point, it may be wise to trust and act. In the short term, there is no need to be overly pessimistic; at least the current oil prices do not yet indicate stagflation or recession (more of a narrative). The short-term improvement point lies in whether it will allow neutral countries like India to partially resume trade. However, there is no doubt that the longer it drags on, the greater the possibility of tail risks emerging. This risk comes not only from the fundamentals but also from crowded positions. The Nasdaq has already fallen to the lower end of the fluctuation range, and if it breaks below, it should lead to more selling pressure.
Now, let's look at today's major news:
<ul>
<li>There are some positive signals regarding the US-Iran conflict today:</li>
</ul>
Two liquefied petroleum gas carriers flying the Indian flag and belonging to an Indian shipping company have recently successfully crossed the Strait of Hormuz and are currently heading to India, expected to arrive at relevant Indian ports within a few days.
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According to reports, Iranian Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian was interviewed by CBS's &#34;Face the Nation.&#34; Regarding Iran's nuclear program, Amir-Abdollahian pointed out that before the US and Israel launched a war, Iran had already made significant concessions in indirect nuclear negotiations with the US, expressing a willingness to dilute enriched uranium to 60% purity, indicating that Iran has no intention of seeking nuclear weapons.
<ul>
<li>Following storage chips and packaging, the semiconductor industry chain may usher in a new wave of price increases. Mature process wafer foundries such as UMC, Vanguard International Semiconductor, and Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp. are expected to raise prices as early as April, with increases of up to 10% or more.</li>
</ul>
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In addition, there are reports on Hua Hong's 7nm advanced process. During the midday session, Hua Hong's stock surged, rising over 16% at one point, driving the semiconductor sector up, with Demingli and Zhaoyi Innovation hitting the daily limit.
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<ul>
<li>Analyst Guo Minghao's latest supply chain survey shows that after NVIDIA's investment in Groq, the shipment forecast for LPU has been significantly raised. The total shipment volume is expected to reach 4 to 5 million units from 2026 to 2027. To maintain the ultra-low latency advantage during the inference decoding phase, NVIDIA plans to increase the number of LPUs per cabinet from the current 64 to 256. The new architecture cabinets are expected to start mass production in the fourth quarter of this year, with cabinet shipments expected to be around 300 to 500 units in 2026 and 15,000 to 20,000 units in 2027. Stimulated by this news, the PCB sector strengthened during the midday session.</li>
</ul>
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<ul>
<li>According to reports, the U.S. government plans to announce the formation of a so-called &#34;escort alliance&#34; for the Strait of Hormuz soon.</li>
</ul>
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<ul>
<li>It is reported that Alibaba will launch a new enterprise-level AI Agent application as early as this week. This application, developed by the DingTalk team, aims to provide powerful Agent capabilities, assisting enterprises in automating operations on computers, browsers, and cloud servers, while also incorporating dedicated security features to protect enterprise data privacy.</li>
</ul>
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<ul>
<li>According to reports, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance, and the National Development and Reform Commission have issued a notice on carrying out pilot projects for comprehensive hydrogen energy applications. It points out that by 2030, hydrogen energy in urban agglomerations will achieve large-scale applications in various fields, with the average terminal hydrogen price dropping below 25 yuan/kg, striving to reduce it to around 15 yuan/kg in some advantageous regions; the number of fuel cell vehicles nationwide is expected to double compared to 2025, aiming to reach 100,000 vehicles.</li>
</ul>
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<ul>
<li>The prototype of &#34;The Big Short&#34; and a benchmark figure in the field of contrarian investing on Wall Street, Michael Burry expressed his optimism about the Hang Seng Tech Index on social media: Over the past few years, the stock prices of companies related to the Hang Seng Tech Index have experienced significant declines, and valuations have been severely compressed, but the revenues and profits of these companies have continued to grow steadily. This extreme divergence between valuation and fundamentals is nurturing a historic investment opportunity. Today, Hong Kong stocks surged, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising nearly 3%.</li>
</ul>
Finally, let's take a brief look at the market: As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.26%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 1.41%; the Hang Seng Index rose by 1.45%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 2.69%.
By industry, food and beverage, electronics, retail, beauty care, and transportation sectors led the gains, while steel, non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and utilities sectors led the declines.
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Risk Warning:

588170

01347

FTXL

159516

512760

159546

688347

159813

The weekend saw an escalation in the US-Iran conflict, leading to weak performance in technology stocks. After the market opened today, defensive sectors such as liquor and agriculture strengthened, and technology stock sentiment rebounded, with Hua Hong once rising over 16%. The market remains cautious about high oil prices, and attention should be paid to the developments in the situation in the short term. Positive signals have emerged from the US-Iran conflict, as an Indian shipping company's liquefied petroleum gas transport vessel successfully crossed the Strait of Hormuz. The semiconductor industry chain may face a wave of price increases, with mature process wafer foundries expected to raise quotes starting in April

腾讯新闻 - 财经

ChinaAMC SSE STAR Semiconductor Material & Equipment Thematic ETF

HUA HONG SEMI

First Trust Nasdaq Food & Semicon

Guotai CSI Semiconductor Material Equipment Theme ETF

Guotai CES Semiconductor Chip Industry ETF

Guotai CSI All Share Integrated Circuit ETF

Hua Hong

Penghua Guozheng Semiconductor Chip ETF

Post-market big news! A-shares deep V, three departments with super heavyweight, 200 billion giant surges driving semiconductors