The biggest concern for the global semiconductor industry is not the nominal figures of oil prices, but rather the short energy reserve levels following the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
According to news from the Chase Wind Trading Desk, on March 18, Barclays' macro research team released an in-depth report indicating that the ongoing turmoil in the Strait of Hormuz is transmitting substantial &#34;tail risks&#34; to the North Asian semiconductor supply chain through energy and key raw material pathways.
Macro researcher Bum Ki Son stated in the report: &#34;As the Middle East conflict enters its third week, this coincides with the typical shipping cycle from the Middle East to North Asia. From this week onwards, the interruption of energy imports in South Korea and Taiwan will become increasingly evident.&#34;
Currently, the market's focus is no longer solely on whether oil prices will exceed $100, but rather on whether the stable electricity and specialty gases that semiconductor giants rely on for survival will be depleted due to the blockade.
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<h2>Energy Reserves: The &#34;Discrepancy&#34; Between Nominal Days and Actual Buffer Zones</h2>
From an external perspective, South Korea and Taiwan appear to have considerable strategic oil reserves, seemingly sufficient to withstand short-term shocks. However, Barclays has dissected the underlying concerns behind these figures in its research report.
Although the South Korean president previously claimed to have 208 days of oil reserves, and Taiwan also stated reserves exceeding 100 days, Barclays pointed out that these figures include non-energy demands from the refining and petrochemical industries, leading to some overstatement.
Analyst Dave Dai noted: &#34;Considering the massive consumption by the petrochemical and refining industries, South Korea's actual crude oil reserves are about 4 months, while Taiwan's reserves may be nearing the critical point of 2 months.&#34;
More urgent is the situation with liquefied natural gas (LNG). Due to storage technology limitations, the buffer zone for LNG is much narrower than that for crude oil. Taiwan's nominal LNG reserves are only sufficient for 11 days, while South Korea's are about 9 days.
Barclays calculates that even considering diversification of sources, both regions remain highly dependent on Middle Eastern LNG, with reliance levels still at 15%-25%. In a scenario of complete blockade, LNG reserves can only buy the power system a maximum of one and a half months.
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<h2>Power Resilience Showdown: Nuclear Power Reserves and the &#34;Nuclear-Free&#34; Dilemma</h2>
The Barclays report found that in addressing the LNG gap, the power systems of South Korea and Taiwan exhibit starkly different resilience.
South Korea's power composition is relatively balanced. In the face of a 16% shortage of Middle Eastern natural gas, the South Korean government plans to increase nuclear power utilization from the current level of over 60% to 85%-87% (returning to the high levels of 2015), supplemented by a small increase in coal power, which can essentially offset the impact of energy supply disruptions
In contrast, the Taiwan region faces structural &#34;vulnerability.&#34; With the retirement of the last nuclear reactor in May 2025, the power system in Taiwan has completely lost its nuclear energy flexibility. Currently, natural gas generation accounts for 48% of its total power generation (2025 data).
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&#34;In our scenario assumptions, if there is a 24% disruption in LNG supply from the Middle East, Taiwan would need to increase coal power generation by 36% to fill the gap.&#34;
Dave Dai pointed out in the report, &#34;Although this is technically feasible, the risk of system collapse during peak summer periods is extremely high given the already weak backup capacity.&#34; Currently, the technology industry in Taiwan accounts for 25% of total electricity consumption, with TSMC alone accounting for 10%.
<h2>The &#34;Precision Pain&#34; of Chip Manufacturing: Power Fluctuations as an Invisible Red Line</h2>
For semiconductor manufacturing that is precise to the nanometer level, the stability of power supply is not only a cost issue but also a matter of survival.
Barclays pointed out that semiconductor production needs to operate in a vacuum environment without interruption for 24 hours. Bum Ki Son emphasized: &#34;Even a momentary power outage or voltage fluctuation can turn an entire batch of wafers into scrap.&#34;
If energy blockades lead to power rationing, policymakers will face a dilemma:
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Prioritize civilian use: This would force factories to reduce production, leading to a sharp drop in semiconductor output;
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<li>
Maintain unstable supply: This would directly destroy yield rates and significantly reduce the added value of each product.
</li>
</ol>
This risk is not limited to local areas but has cross-regional &#34;infectious&#34; potential. For example, the GPU packaging in Taiwan heavily relies on high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips from South Korea. If power fluctuations in Taiwan lead to the shutdown of packaging production lines, it will inversely consume the market demand for South Korean HBM, creating a domino effect.
<h2>Specialty Gases: The Overlooked Raw Material Storm</h2>
In addition to electricity, the Strait of Hormuz is the only passage for key chemical raw materials for semiconductors.
Barclays data shows that both South Korea and Taiwan have reached a shocking level of dependence on the Middle East and Israel for specialty gases essential in chip etching and cleaning processes:
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Bromine: 97% of South Korea's demand comes from Israel, while Taiwan's share is 95%;
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<li>
Helium: 55% of South Korea's demand comes from Gulf countries, while Taiwan's share is 69%;
</li>
<li>
Ethylene: The dependence ratio is also between 40%-60%.
</li>
</ul>
Although major producers have several months of raw material reserves, Barclays warns that if the blockade lasts more than three months, once these extremely concentrated supply chains break, the global semiconductor supply will enter a true &#34;vacuum period.&#34;
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<h2>Market Consequences: Dramatic Restructuring of Output and Prices</h2>
Researcher Brian Tan warns that the market currently underestimates the destructive power of this conflict on global technology valuations.
He stated: “Asian policymakers are most concerned not only about inflation driven by rising oil prices but also about the 'Outsized Growth Shock' in semiconductor output. If global semiconductor demand remains robust, this supply-side shock will directly push up nominal chip prices, even as output contracts.”
Currently, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and Bank Negara Malaysia have shown heightened vigilance towards geopolitical risks. Brian Tan believes that, as economies deeply tied to the technology sector, central banks in these regions will be more cautious in raising interest rates or tightening policies to prevent a chain collapse of the domestic financial system when external energy risks materialize.
For global investors, the Iran war is not just a regional conflict but a stress test for the underlying logic of global computing power. If the Strait remains blocked without substantial relief in the coming weeks, the &#34;black swan&#34; in the chip industry may shift from rumor to reality

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Barclays warns that LNG reserves in South Korea and Taiwan are only sufficient to last a little over a month, and due to the extreme sensitivity of semiconductor manufacturing to power stability, energy supply disruptions will directly threaten wafer yield. Coupled with the 95% reliance on specialty gases for semiconductors from Israel and Gulf countries, a long-term blockade could lead to a sharp decline in global chip production and uncontrollable prices. The "black swan" may turn from rumor into reality

- The ongoing turmoil in the Strait of Hormuz poses significant risks to the semiconductor industry in North Asia, primarily due to potential disruptions in energy supplies.  
- Despite substantial strategic oil reserves, Barclays reports that these numbers may be overstated when considering actual demands, particularly for LNG and essential materials like special gases, which are heavily reliant on the Middle East.  
- The potential long-term implications include severe production shortages and price increases in the semiconductor market, heightening concerns for global investors and policymakers.

Will the "black swan" of chips materialize in the Iran war?