Although the market has recently adjusted due to external risk disturbances, it is expected that the A-share market in the Year of the Horse will continue this slow bull market trend, with a certain shift in investment themes compared to last year. Last year was typically characterized by a &#34;barbell strategy,&#34; with one end of the barbell being the technology innovation sector, which represents economic transformation and direction, and the other end being high-dividend sectors, particularly bank stocks, which performed exceptionally well last year. This year, the difficulty of investment will increase, which can be termed the &#34;new barbell strategy.&#34; One end of the barbell remains the technology innovation sector, but differentiation will occur.
Many technology stocks saw significant increases last year, and this year will enter the performance verification stage. Some technology stocks with real core competitiveness and the ability to achieve technological breakthroughs may see further increases. However, technology stocks that are merely speculating on concepts without substantial R&amp;D capabilities or the ability to deliver performance may decline. During this period of market adjustment, it can be observed that many technology stocks that surged last year have experienced significant corrections, with considerable profit-taking pressure.
The other end of this year's barbell strategy is represented by &#34;HALO assets.&#34; &#34;HALO assets&#34; is a direction recently emphasized by major firms like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, which stands for &#34;Heavy Assets&#34; and &#34;Low Obsolescence.&#34; These industries will not be eliminated in the AI era because we will still need a large amount of electricity, metals like copper and aluminum, chemical products, and railway logistics, among others. These industries belong to heavy asset sectors, which are difficult to build without several years of construction cycles and approvals, making them a safe haven for capital. Especially in the context of international turmoil, countries are increasingly recognizing the importance of seizing resources, and these two factors have jointly driven up &#34;HALO assets.&#34;
Since the beginning of this year, the petrochemical and non-ferrous metal sectors have performed relatively well. Overall, these two investment ideas are one that benefits from AI, where the application of AI technology will accelerate the development of these technology innovation industries, such as humanoid robots, semiconductor chips, computing algorithms, quantum technology, and biomedicine, which benefit from AI applications. The other is the heavy asset industries that will not be eliminated by AI. These two ends are likely to be the two main investment themes in the Year of the Horse in 2026.
At the end of last year, I published the top ten predictions for 2026, mentioning that the trend of U.S. stocks this year might be a peak and decline, with the risk of an AI technology bubble bursting. Recently, I had a conversation with the famous Wall Street mogul Rogers, who expressed a very pessimistic view, believing that the tech bubble in U.S. stocks is about to burst, leading to the most severe decline in history, and he clearly stated that he has cleared all his U.S. stock holdings.
At the beginning of the year, I participated in a New Year's program on CCTV with the renowned investor Dan Bin, discussing the trend of U.S. stocks with the famous CCTV host Yao Zhishan. Dan Bin's view is relatively optimistic; he believes that the development of AI has just begun, and there is still a lot of room for growth in the future. My view is somewhere in between, suggesting that U.S. stocks this year will neither see a significant rise nor a crash-like decline, but rather a trend of valuation retraction
Because these AI technology stocks have accumulated a large amount of gains, they are now gradually entering the performance verification stage.
Whether the application of AI can meet expectations and ultimately release the performance anticipated by the market still carries considerable uncertainty. Moreover, technology is constantly advancing, and whether the monopolistic advantages of leading companies like NVIDIA can be sustained, and whether the practice of stacking chips will be replaced, all of these uncertainties could lead to fluctuations in stock prices.
The recent decline in U.S. stocks also reflects investors' concerns about overvaluation to some extent. Warren Buffett, the investment guru, has always been very cautious; he generally significantly reduces his holdings before the U.S. stock market peaks. According to the recently released Berkshire Hathaway annual report, Buffett made his last adjustments before retiring at the end of last year, significantly reducing his holdings in U.S. stocks. Now, Berkshire Hathaway has cash holdings of up to $370 billion, exceeding its market capitalization, which means its stock position has fallen below 50%. This indicates that Buffett began to significantly reduce his holdings before a potential burst of the U.S. stock market bubble to cope with the risk of a significant adjustment.
In the past 10 years, I have attended Buffett's shareholder meetings in Omaha seven times, hoping to encourage investors to adhere to the value investment philosophy and change the habit of chasing highs and cutting losses through frequent trading. This May Day, I will again go to Omaha to attend the 2026 Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting. At that time, I will promptly introduce the grand occasion of the meeting, hoping that the value investment philosophy can take root, blossom, and bear fruit in the A-share market.
Many people are worried that if the AI technology bubble in the U.S. stock market experiences a significant drop this year, it may negatively impact the performance of technology stocks in our A-share market, as some of the leading technology stocks in the A-share market are linked to the U.S. For example, if NVIDIA drops sharply, technology stocks in NVIDIA's supply chain may also decline; if Tesla experiences a significant drop, some stocks in the Tesla supply chain in the A-share market are likely to drop as well. Therefore, the decline of technology stocks in the U.S. may affect the performance of technology stocks in the A-share market. However, this impact is short-term, and whether technology stocks in the A-share market can continue to rise in the future mainly depends on their own performance growth. Many technology stocks are not entirely supporting U.S. technology companies; there are also many targeting the domestic market. If they can secure orders in the domestic market and achieve growth, there will be opportunities for performance. However, we still need to guard against the impact on A-share technology stocks if U.S. technology stocks experience a significant drop. If this occurs, it is advisable to reduce positions for risk aversion and then explore those high-quality technology stocks that have been mispriced after sufficient adjustments.
The year 2026 is also the starting year of the 14th Five-Year Plan, and the technology innovation directions we focus on supporting in the 14th Five-Year Plan remain key development directions for the future, which is beyond doubt. Everyone can maintain a positive focus on technology directions, but two risks need to be noted: one is the risk of a sudden drop in U.S. technology stocks, which may need to be avoided; the other is that some technology stocks may be subject to more conceptual speculation, and if there is no substantial performance support, they may also experience significant declines this year. These are the two major risk points facing investments this year
(Opinions for reference, investment requires caution, image source: internet)
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Yang Delong analyzed the investment main line of the capital market in 2026. Despite the recent market adjustments, it is expected that A-shares will continue a slow bull market. The investment strategy will shift to the "new dumbbell strategy," with one end focused on the technology innovation sector and the other end on "HALO assets," which refer to heavy asset and low elimination industries. These industries remain competitive in the AI era, especially the petrochemical and non-ferrous metal sectors, which are performing well. Investors need to pay attention to the performance verification phase of core competitive technology stocks

Yang Delong: The Main Investment Line of the Capital Market in 2026