&#34;Oh my God, my photovoltaic electricity bill in January shows that the grid feed-in tariff is only 0.01 yuan per kilowatt-hour!&#34;
China Energy Network noted that in January, a distributed photovoltaic project in Shandong Province, a major province in both economy and electricity consumption, had a grid feed-in tariff equivalent to only 0.0130 yuan per kilowatt-hour. In the same month, another major province in both economy and electricity consumption, Jiangsu Province, also reported a shocking electricity price of 0.01 yuan.
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As a result, many distributed photovoltaic owners in Shandong, Jiangsu, and other regions expressed similar sentiments when checking their electricity bills recently.
At the beginning of 2025, Document No. 136 was released. At that time, there was a psychological expectation of ultra-low electricity prices for distributed photovoltaics. After a whole year of lackluster installed capacity growth in 2025, various parties originally expected that the electricity prices for distributed photovoltaics would increase in 2026. Unexpectedly, the year started with a settlement bill showing an electricity price of 0.01 yuan, shattering the warming expectations.
All of this has made it difficult for distributed owners to accept psychologically. But the future has arrived; whether accepted or not, the era of &#34;naked swimming&#34; for distributed photovoltaics has already come.
&#34;Shock&#34; of 0.01 yuan electricity price
The emergence of a 0.01 yuan electricity price for distributed photovoltaics in Shandong and Jiangsu has an important policy background: starting from January 1, 2026, multiple provinces, including Shandong and Jiangsu, officially implemented the new policy of &#34;full market settlement for distributed renewable energy.&#34; The core of this settlement rule adjustment is that &#34;the total amount of renewable energy fed into the grid will fully enter the electricity market,&#34; marking the implementation of the national policy to promote the marketization of renewable energy electricity prices.
This policy means that distributed photovoltaics will bid farewell to the guaranteed purchase model of price and quantity protection and plunge into the turbulent tide of marketization, facing various risks brought about by electricity price fluctuations.
Before the 14th Five-Year Plan, especially before 2018, China's installed capacity of renewable energy was still small. For this &#34;infant in swaddling clothes,&#34; policies provided extensive protection, adopting full guaranteed purchases by the grid. Not only were the subsidized electricity prices higher than the coal-fired benchmark electricity prices, but there was also no concern about electricity curtailment.
During the 14th Five-Year Plan, the installed capacity of renewable energy surged, reaching a total installed capacity of 1.84 billion kilowatts by the end of 2025, firmly establishing itself as the largest power source. With so much renewable energy, the grid no longer had the capacity to guarantee full purchases. Thus, the marketization reform of renewable energy electricity prices gradually advanced: first centralized entry into the market, then distributed entry; first large and medium-sized distributed entry, followed by all distributed entry.
The aforementioned 0.01 yuan electricity price for distributed photovoltaics in Shandong and Jiangsu appeared at the initial stage of all distributed entry into the market. However, it should be noted that this low electricity price of 0.01 yuan for distributed photovoltaics does not mean that it is applicable at all times throughout the day; it mainly concentrates during the midday period when photovoltaic output is high and system electricity consumption is low
Despite the low electricity price of 0.01 yuan appearing only during certain periods, its destructive effect cannot be underestimated—it has significantly lowered the overall electricity price.
Taking Jiangsu as an example, a certain distributed photovoltaic project had an on-grid electricity generation of 11,946 kWh in January, with an electricity cost calculated at the market average of 3,098.45 yuan, equivalent to 0.259 yuan per kWh, which is considerably lower than the original fixed electricity price. It is important to note that during the full guaranteed purchase period, its price was executed based on the local coal-fired benchmark electricity price of 0.39 yuan per kWh. Currently, the price has &#34;plummeted&#34; to 0.013 yuan per kWh. The disparity is evident.
Moreover, what worries the industry even more is that the &#34;0.01 yuan&#34; price may just be the beginning, and there remains significant uncertainty regarding future electricity price trends. Additionally, the aforementioned case pertains to existing projects, which still have certain advantages in terms of electricity price mechanisms and electricity volume guarantees; the revenue situation for new projects can be imagined.
Who is the alarm bell ringing for?
After the full market entry of new energy, different types of new energy exhibit significant differences in market competitiveness: wind power, which generates power throughout the day in multiple time slots, is clearly superior to photovoltaic power, which generates power mainly during midday; centralized photovoltaic power is superior to distributed photovoltaic power; and medium to large-sized distributed photovoltaic power, which has a relatively high self-consumption ratio, is also superior to &#34;small shrimp&#34; household photovoltaic power.
If we refer to the above ranking as the &#34;despise chain&#34; under the environment of new energy exceeding standards, it may not be absolutely accurate, but it basically reflects the market conditions of various types of new energy projects. It is worth noting that the systemic vulnerability reflected behind this ranking largely stems from whether specific provinces' new energy is &#34;exceeding standards&#34;—that is, whether it exceeds the grid's absorption and supporting capacity.
Achieving the &#34;dual carbon&#34; goals requires large-scale deployment of new energy. However, the installation of new energy capacity is not better the higher it is; it must align with the grid's bearing and absorption capacity, as well as coordinate with other power sources and the electricity demand of various provinces. If the installation of new energy capacity advances unilaterally without accompanying conditions, it will lead to the problem of new energy exceeding standards. The 0.01 yuan electricity price for distributed photovoltaic power in Shandong and Jiangsu is a specific manifestation of this exceeding standard issue.
Taking Shandong as an example. According to official data, by the end of 2025, the installed capacity of new energy and renewable energy generation in Shandong Province is expected to reach 130 million kilowatts, with the proportion of total installed capacity in the province exceeding 50% for the first time.
Among this 130 million kilowatts of new energy capacity, wind power accounts for about 27 million kilowatts, and photovoltaic power accounts for about 93 million kilowatts. Of this 93 million kilowatts of photovoltaic capacity, distributed photovoltaic capacity exceeds 60 million kilowatts, nearly double that of centralized photovoltaic power. This means that in Shandong, not only is the proportion of photovoltaic power excessively high, but the proportion of distributed photovoltaic power is also excessively high.
Faced with the challenges of electricity prices and volume after exceeding standards, the bearing capacity of different types of new energy varies, with distributed photovoltaic power being the most vulnerable. For example, centralized photovoltaic power stations and larger commercial photovoltaic systems can consider pairing with energy storage to address electricity price and volume issues; under the same conditions, what capacity does household photovoltaic power have to pair with storage? The average electricity price for residential use in China is around 0.5 yuan, and without sufficient price differential, how can household storage survive?
Many suggestions for household photovoltaic storage are merely playing with concepts!
The vulnerability of distributed photovoltaic, especially household photovoltaic, is also reflected in its complete lack of ability to actively participate in the market.
Some have proposed that after the full entry of new energy into the market, distributed photovoltaic can enter the market through aggregated trading and &#34;group buying&#34;: individual users can unite and enter the market in the form of an &#34;aggregate,&#34; participating in pricing autonomously, which offers a better chance of obtaining a more favorable market electricity price than passively accepting prices. However, there is a significant gap between this idea and reality.
First of all, even if distributed photovoltaic wants to aggregate and enter the market, the medium- to long-term electricity market is unlikely to pay attention to this &#34;small change.&#34; In other words, the ticket to the medium- to long-term electricity market, where prices and electricity quantities are relatively guaranteed, has little to do with the &#34;small, miscellaneous, and scattered&#34; distributed photovoltaic.
Secondly, even if distributed photovoltaic aggregates to enter the highly volatile spot market for electricity prices and quantities, does aggregation not require costs? Where will these small and scattered distributed photovoltaic sources, which originally earn very little, find the startup funds for aggregation?
The 1 cent electricity price for distributed photovoltaic in Shandong and Jiangsu has sounded the alarm for provinces across the country, indicating that distributed photovoltaic has entered a new stage and can no longer recklessly and boldly launch projects. Instead, it should be site-specific and time-specific. Without demand, insufficient support, and difficulties in absorption, one absolutely cannot blindly engage in photovoltaic projects anymore

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In January, the electricity price for distributed photovoltaic projects in Shandong, Jiangsu, and other regions dropped to 0.01 yuan per kilowatt-hour, breaking the expectations of the owners. This change stems from the new policy of "full market settlement for distributed renewable energy" implemented from January 1, 2026, marking the departure of distributed photovoltaic from guaranteed purchase and entering the era of market-based electricity prices. With the rapid growth of new energy installed capacity, the power grid can no longer guarantee full purchase, promoting the process of electricity price marketization reform

腾讯新闻 - 财经

Huatai-PB CSI Photovoltaic Industry ETF

ChinaAMC CSI New Energy ETF

E Fund CSI New Energy ETF

Tianhong CSI Photovoltaic Industry ETF

1 cent per kilowatt-hour, distributed photovoltaic power has completely "changed"!