Gold prices return to $4,600.
On March 25, during trading, the London spot gold price briefly reached $4,600 per ounce. As of the time of publication, the London spot gold price was reported at $4,564.84 per ounce, with a daily increase of 2.08%; COMEX gold price was reported at $4,555.7 per ounce, with a daily increase of 3.49%.
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As a result, the prices of some domestic gold jewelry brands have also been adjusted, with the price per gram returning to 1,400 yuan. On March 25, Chow Sang Sang's gold jewelry was priced at 1,418 yuan per gram, an increase of 68 yuan in a single day; Lao Feng Xiang quoted 1,408 yuan per gram, an increase of 63 yuan in a single day.
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In the A-share market, gold concept stocks also saw collective movements, with Chifeng Gold, Xiaocheng Technology, Industrial Bank Silver Tin, Zhongjin Gold, and others all experiencing significant increases.
In terms of news, according to CCTV News, on March 24 local time, the U.S. government proposed a conflict resolution plan to Iran through Pakistan, which includes 15 conditions covering nuclear programs, missile capabilities, and regional issues, while ensuring the Strait of Hormuz remains open. In exchange, Iran may receive a comprehensive lifting of international sanctions, U.S. support for its civilian nuclear program, and the cancellation of the &#34;snapback sanctions&#34; mechanism. The U.S. side is considering promoting a month-long ceasefire to facilitate further negotiations on the above terms.
Why has gold's safe-haven status &#34;failed&#34;?
Since the outbreak of the U.S.-Israel-Iran war, gold prices have not only failed to rise but have instead fallen. This past Monday, the spot gold price briefly dropped below $4,100 per ounce, down over 20% from the historical high of $5,608 set in January, and fell to around $4,098. This has been viewed as entering a technical bear market.
This trend has left many investors puzzled: why, as a traditional safe-haven asset, has gold continued to decline amid escalating geopolitical risks?
Market views suggest that gold's safe-haven properties have not truly failed but are being suppressed in the short term by stronger macro variables.
UBS's Global Wealth Management team attributes the recent decline in gold to weakened investor confidence in Federal Reserve rate cuts and reduced market speculation momentum. Currently, the market is more focused on the chain of &#34;rising oil prices—inflation increases—Federal Reserve maintains tightening&#34; rather than the path of &#34;oil price shocks—economic slowdown—policy shift.&#34; This singular narrative has significantly weakened gold's macro hedging properties in the short term.
UBS analyst Wayne Gordon stated that for many investors, gold has performed relatively flat in the face of geopolitical tensions and increased price volatility, which seems contrary to intuition. However, history shows that especially in the early stages of conflict, gold does not always rise
A clear conclusion is that the price trend of gold is often not driven by direct conflicts themselves, but rather determined by policy and economic backgrounds. As the market adapts to the anticipated higher interest rates and a strong dollar, gold's role as a store of value in the early cycle has come under pressure. However, this is not a failure of gold's safe-haven performance, but a delay.
Citigroup's report points out that the momentum buying led by retail and ETF investors over the past 12 months has been the core driving force behind the continuous rise in gold prices since reaching USD 2,500 per ounce, while central bank gold purchases have remained stable over the past two to three years. This holding structure dominated by retail and momentum funds makes gold highly susceptible to forced declines when risk assets experience massive sell-offs.
Citigroup further noted that rising real interest rates and a strengthening dollar also weigh on gold prices, compounded by a large number of retail and ETF holders passively reducing their holdings, resulting in gold's &#34;pro-cyclical&#34; correlation with other risk assets being more extreme than historical averages.
Peter Schiff, a renowned economist on Wall Street and CEO of Euro Pacific Capital, believes that the current sell-off in gold is replaying the script of the &#34;2008 global financial crisis.&#34; He criticized the logic behind this sell-off, arguing that traders have made a fundamental mistake—selling gold out of concern that persistent inflation will prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates.
&#34;It makes no sense to sell gold because rising inflation will prevent the Fed from cutting rates when rates are already too low. A decline in real interest rates is beneficial for gold, but what really needs to be cut are stock market rates.&#34; Schiff predicts that once high interest rates push the economy into recession, the Fed will change its strategy, lower rates, and resume quantitative easing, which will be a strong positive for gold.
The market is uneasy about whether a ceasefire or peace agreement will weaken gold's geopolitical premium, to which Schiff firmly rebuts. He points out that if the war ends quickly, it would be negative for gold, but this is not enough to offset all the positive factors. Furthermore, the government will still need to pay for supplementary weapons and the reconstruction of devastated areas, leading to larger fiscal deficits and inflation compared to a situation where no war has occurred.
Institutions Maintain Bullish Outlook
Despite short-term pressures, most institutions remain optimistic about gold's medium to long-term trend.
UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo stated that the structural driving factors that have pushed gold prices up in recent years, such as debt issues, political pressure for the Fed to cut rates, high inflation, low interest rates, and a weakening dollar, still exist without any changes.
In Gordon's view, if history can serve as a reference, negative outlooks on gold's future prospects may be premature. &#34;As the market adapts to anticipated higher interest rates and a strong dollar (which are short-term obstacles to gold prices), gold's role as a store of value in the early cycle has come under pressure. However, this is not a failure of gold's safe-haven performance, but a delay.&#34;
Standard Chartered's senior investment strategist Rajat Bhattacharya also stated that the bank maintains a constructive long-term stance on gold, supported by structural factors including strong demand from emerging market central banks and investors' diversification needs under geopolitical risks
He also emphasized that the weakening of the dollar should once again support gold prices, and the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's eventual interest rate cuts are an important catalyst for the dollar's decline.
Citigroup pointed out that the &#34;buying opportunity for gold depends on the path, not the price level.&#34; If the Iran conflict ends within the next four to six weeks, it is recommended to wait for a stabilization of risk assets and for the stock market to hit bottom before entering; if the conflict lasts longer, a decline in real interest rates or a technical momentum reversal in gold prices will be more reliable buying signals. From a longer-term perspective, the &#34;friction&#34; that drives gold prices higher over the long term remains—sovereign debt risks, concerns about the dilution of dollar credit, the continuous allocation of savings by Chinese residents into gold, and the diversification needs of emerging market central banks all constitute a lasting force supporting prices.
Bank of Montreal maintains a long-term bullish stance on gold. The bank's commodity analysts stated that the Iran conflict has not weakened the structural bull market logic for metals and mining sectors, but rather further strengthened this logic. The current issue is merely when the market can regain sufficient confidence to believe that the conflict is nearing resolution, thereby increasing risk exposure again. Bank of Montreal expects the average gold price to reach $4,800 per ounce in the third quarter of 2026, rising to $4,900 per ounce in the fourth quarter, with an annual average price of $4,846 per ounce. Looking further ahead, BMO expects gold prices to remain stable above $5,000 per ounce in 2027, with an annual average price expected to reach $5,125 per ounce, a significant upward revision of 26% from previous forecasts.
Global X ETFs investment strategist Justin Lin stated that the current sell-off is driven by a combination of short-term interest rate sensitivity, portfolio rebalancing triggered by stock market declines, and a certain degree of complacency regarding the Iran conflict, characterizing this decline as &#34;an attractive buying opportunity for investors,&#34; maintaining a year-end benchmark forecast of $6,000 per ounce.
Standard Chartered expects that gold prices are likely to rebound to $5,375 within three months after the current deleveraging cycle ends. Bank of America Securities predicts that the average gold price will rise quarter by quarter from the second to the fourth quarter of 2026, ranging between $4,500 and $5,750, with a year-end target price of $5,750 per ounce, and the average for the first quarter of 2027 is expected to be around $5,200 per ounce

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Gold prices returned to $4,600, with London spot gold reaching $4,600/ounce at one point, currently reported at $4,564.84/ounce, a daily increase of 2.08%. Domestic gold jewelry prices have been raised, with the price per gram returning to 1,400 yuan. Gold concept stocks collectively rose in the A-share market. Despite the escalation of geopolitical risks, gold prices have recently seen a decline, with market analysis attributing this to macro factors such as weakened investor confidence in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts

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Soaring again! Gold prices return to $4,600, Wall Street: a pullback is a buying opportunity