Yesterday, Da Ge mentioned that we should pay attention to a major event on Wednesday, namely Trump's &#34;deadline&#34; threatening Iran.
Today, indeed, significant news has emerged: the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran will take effect at 8 AM Beijing time on the 8th and will last for two weeks.
The Iranian Supreme National Security Council issued a statement saying that Iran has achieved almost all its goals in this war, and the enemy has &#34;suffered a historic and complete defeat.&#34; Iran will &#34;continue to fight until the great achievements it has obtained are consolidated, establishing a new security and political landscape in the region,&#34; and has decided to hold negotiations in Islamabad to determine the details, &#34;to consolidate the victory through political negotiations within a maximum of 15 days.&#34;
Trump claimed that the two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is a &#34;complete and total victory&#34; for the United States.
Both the U.S. and Iran claim victory, so who is the loser? At least, global capital market investors have been hurt during this period, as well as the relevant industry supply chains.
Does the U.S.-Iran negotiation mean that the war is completely over?
From the statement issued by the Iranian Supreme National Security Council on the 8th, although both sides will hold negotiations for two weeks, Iran has &#34;complete distrust&#34; of the U.S.
The statement from the Iranian Supreme National Security Council said that negotiations do not mean the end of the war; only by adhering to 10 ceasefire terms and turning the &#34;surrender of the enemy&#34; on the battlefield into &#34;decisive political results&#34; in negotiations, and finalizing the details through negotiations, will Iran accept the end of the war.
However, for the global stock market, the two-week negotiation means that the market has an additional two weeks of easing period, which is beneficial for market sentiment to recover.
Let's return to the market.
Affected by the news of the two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, major global stock markets surged significantly.
Among them, the Nikkei 225 index rose by 5.39%, the Korea Composite Index rose by 6.87%, and the stock markets of the UK, France, and Germany all saw increases of over 2%. The Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 3.09% and 5.22%, respectively.
Previously impacted by the Middle East conflict, the Dubai Financial Market General Index surged by as much as 10% during trading, marking the largest intraday increase since December 2014.
In the U.S. stock market, where trading has not yet opened, the futures contracts for the three major indices have all risen by over 2%. If nothing unexpected happens, U.S. stocks are also expected to rise significantly tonight.
The offshore RMB against the U.S. dollar rose nearly 300 points during the day, reaching the highest level since March 2023.
As of the close of the A-shares, the SSE Index closed with a long bullish candle, approaching 4000 points, with an increase of 2.70%; the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index surged by 4.79% and 5.91%, respectively.
The market turnover reached 2.45 trillion yuan, significantly increasing by 827.2 billion yuan compared to yesterday. Over 5,100 individual stocks rose, with the median increase of individual stocks being 3.72%.
In terms of the overall market, the SSE Index has reached the intersection area of three resistance levels, which are the stage low point from early February, the downward trend line since early March, and the low point connection line from March 23 to 27
Da Ge believes that based on the tone of the A-shares this year, the market will not easily experience consecutive large increases. Therefore, under the backdrop of today's emotional climax in the market, there will be some differentiation starting tomorrow.
In terms of space, the stage low point around 4000 points in early February no longer poses an obstacle, with the upper pressure level around 4050 points.
Previously, Da Ge mentioned in an article that this round of rebound is likely to follow the time template of the two rounds of rebound from February to April 2022, meaning it will last at least 20 trading days. Today, the market closed with a long bullish candle of over 100 points, which significantly increases the probability of this assumption.
Personally, I believe that the rebound since March 23 will maintain around 20 trading days without major issues. Moreover, the long bullish candle of over 100 points today, from an experiential perspective, can at least sustain a week of volatility or rebound.
Therefore, after today's long bullish candle, there is no need to consider market risks for the coming week; it is more important to take advantage of the rising sentiment to earn more money.
In terms of sectors, except for defensive sectors like oil, banking, and coal, as well as sectors related to the Middle East situation, all other sectors have risen.
Communication equipment, software services, components, internet, and semiconductors rank among the top five sectors in terms of gains, which may indicate the return of the AI market leaders.
There are two additional points to support this judgment:
First, since the beginning of 2024, the dual leaders in the market, Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng, as well as the leading sector, the communication equipment sector index, have all gapped up significantly and reached historical highs.
Second, since the adjustment in early March, the AI market has not completely cooled down; branches of AI, such as optical communication, have taken on the responsibility of generating market profits. Stocks in certain branches like optical chips and OCS have continuously reached new highs.
For the AI direction, several sectors can be focused on: optical modules, CPO, optical chips, optical fibers, OCS, CCL, etc.
From recent performance, the upstream performance of industries like PCB and CPO has been impressive, which is a classic case of trading upstream in a major market trend. For example, in the last round of the new energy bull market, leading stocks in lithium battery upstream clustered together.
Of course, from the perspective of speculation paths, the market has started to speculate on new technologies in the past two to three months, such as CPO, NPO, OCS, etc.
Regarding OCS and CPO, Guosheng Securities stated that entering 2026, as AI computing clusters fully evolve towards higher computing density, the 1.6T optical module will enter its first year of large-scale release, and the supply of upstream core components (DSP, EML, silicon photonics capacity, and isolators) is facing a new tightening trend. OCS is moving towards engineering implementation from 0 to 1, with breakthrough progress in three dimensions: scaling capability enhancement, application scenario expansion, and customer ecosystem expansion, transitioning from exclusive use by Google to being the core architecture of industry AI infrastructure.
On the news front, as of 4 PM today, U.S. star tech stocks surged before the market opened. ASML rose over 6%, Tesla and TSMC rose over 5%, Meta and Oracle rose over 4%, and Microsoft and NVIDIA rose over 3%.
In addition to the impressive performance in the AI hardware direction, the rebound of oversold sectors in the past two to three months has also been a highlight, such as many industries or branches related to AI applications (like GEO, internet, media, advertising packaging, etc.)
In terms of news, a text-to-video model named HappyHorse-1.0 has quietly topped the AI Video Arena ranking on the authoritative AI evaluation platform Artificial Analysis, surpassing Seedance 2.0 with a higher Elo score.
Additionally, Zhipu officially released its new generation open-source model GLM-5.1 today; the DeepSeek web version's dialogue page has introduced two options: &#34;Quick Mode&#34; and &#34;Expert Mode,&#34; which the market views as an important signal ahead of the release of DeepSeek's next-generation large model V4; Aishi Technology has launched its first large model for the film and television industry, PixVerse C1.
Da Ge believes that, in the context of recovering market sentiment, those severely undervalued sectors will have the momentum for recovery. Furthermore, due to the high market sentiment today, it is possible that heavyweight stocks may experience selling pressure tomorrow, so attention to rhythm is necessary.
Regarding performance lines, companies that have exceeded expectations have recently performed weakly due to the emotional suppression from the Middle East conflict. In the context of recovering market sentiment, such stocks generally have opportunities for recovery.
Finally, Da Ge summarizes: A ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran for two weeks boosts market sentiment. Today's significant rise in the index can at least maintain a week of volatility or rebound, so there is no need to worry about the overall market, with a focus on sector-specific stocks.
In terms of sectors, pay attention to new technologies in AI hardware, inflation segments squeezed by AI, and companies with performance exceeding expectations in the first quarter, including optical modules, CPO, optical chips, optical fibers, OCS, CCL, etc.
PS: To learn more about Da Ge's views or to communicate with Da Ge, please follow the WeChat public account &#34;Dao Da Hao.&#34;
(Zhang Da Da)
According to the latest regulations from relevant national departments, this note does not involve any operational advice, and market entry risks are borne by the individual.
Daily Economic News

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The US and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire, leading to a significant rise in global stock markets. Iran claims to have achieved its war goals, while Trump stated that the ceasefire is a victory for the United States. Despite both sides claiming victory, Iran remains distrustful of the US, and negotiations do not necessarily mean the end of hostilities. Major global stock markets, such as the Nikkei 225 and the Korea Composite Index, all rose, and the offshore RMB appreciated nearly 300 points against the US dollar. The A-share SSE Index closed with a long bullish candle of over 100 points

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A hundred-point long rise! The overall leader hits a new high, the super main line returns as the king? — DaoDa Investment Notes