Analysts: New Credit and TSF in March Likely to Increase Month-on-Month

As the release window for March financial data approaches, reporters interviewed several analysts for a preview. The industry generally expects month-on-month increases in new credit and Total Social Financing (TSF) in March. Regarding new RMB loans, Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst at Dongfang Jincheng, stated that March is a major month for credit. He estimates new RMB loans to be approximately 3.4 trillion yuan, a significant increase from February, but a year-on-year decrease of about 240 billion yuan compared to the same period last year.

Wang Yifeng, Chief Financial Industry Analyst at EBSCN, believes that seasonal factors combined with improving economic fundamentals will likely lead to a significant increase in loan disbursement intensity in March compared to February. However, considering policy guidance on "reasonable total growth and balanced disbursement pace," he expects March loan figures to continue the trend of year-on-year decreases, with the new scale slightly exceeding 3 trillion yuan and the growth rate at the end of the month possibly falling to around 5.7%.

Li Chao, Chief Economist at Zheshang Securities, forecasts that new RMB loans in March will reach 3.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 440 billion yuan, corresponding to a 0.3 percentage point decline in the growth rate to 5.7%. (Securities Daily)