This week, against the backdrop of easing tensions in the Middle East, the A-share market rebounded strongly, with the ChiNext Index and STAR 50 Index both seeing weekly gains of over 8%.
AI technology stocks became the backbone of this week's market, with components, semiconductors, and communication equipment leading the way, all experiencing weekly gains of over 10%.
However, significant news came over the weekend that the third round of negotiations between the U.S. and Iran has concluded, with serious differences remaining between the two sides. What impact will this have on next week's market? Where are the future opportunities? Today, Da Ge and Dr. Niu will discuss the topics of interest to everyone.
Dr. Niu: Hello, Da Ge, it's the weekend again, and time for us to discuss the market. This week's market has been somewhat uplifting, especially considering the previous two weeks' rebound was almost a cycle of ice and fire. Since Friday, several messages have come in, such as the conclusion of the third round of U.S.-Iran negotiations, the China Securities Regulatory Commission releasing new rules for the ChiNext reform, and the adjustment of the price fluctuation limit for ST stocks on the Shanghai and Shenzhen main boards to 10%. What impact do these messages have on the market? How do you view next week's market?
Dao Da: First, let's talk about the U.S.-Iran negotiations. From news reports, there are still some serious differences in this round of negotiations.
I believe this is an inevitable result. If an agreement could be reached on the first attempt without serious differences, the conflict would not have lasted this long. Therefore, this has a neutral impact on the market.
The macro logic behind this round of rebound is twofold: first, the uncertainty in the Middle East situation has temporarily eased, and second, there are performance expectations for the first quarter. Against the backdrop of easing tensions in the Middle East, even if there are fluctuations in the U.S.-Iran negotiations, it will not hinder the market's rebound.
Secondly, the three major exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen have released a draft for public consultation on the revision of trading rules, including a comprehensive expansion of after-hours fixed-price trading, an adjustment of the price fluctuation limit for ST stocks on the main board to 10%, and the introduction of a market maker system for the ChiNext. These three measures can enhance market liquidity.
The adjustment of the price fluctuation limit for ST stocks on the main board to 10% is slightly bearish for sentiment-driven stocks that are on a continuous rise, as it is somewhat more challenging to hit the 10% limit compared to the 5% limit; however, it is favorable for stocks with expectations of restructuring, delisting, and good fundamentals.
In 2020, the price fluctuation limit for ChiNext stocks was relaxed from 10% to 20%. During the four important time nodes of the Central Committee for Deepening Reform's review and approval of the plan, the release of rules, the announcement of implementation, and the formal implementation, the performance of the ChiNext Index was relatively stable. Therefore, it is important to view the relaxation of the price fluctuation limit for ST stocks on the main board rationally.
For the ChiNext, the introduction of a fourth set of listing standards and a market maker system is overall beneficial for technology and growth stocks, as it allows for smoother financing and more active trading.
Regarding the market, Da Ge mentioned in an article on April 6 that this week would welcome an important turning point in the market. Indeed, the market gapped up significantly on Wednesday, indicating an upward shift.
Previously, Da Ge also mentioned that this round of rebound could be observed for about 20 trading days. From the low point on March 23 to now, the market has already run for 14 trading days, which means we are still in the rebound cycle next week. After about 20 trading days, we will judge based on market changes
From Friday's performance, the ChiNext Index rebounded the most, mainly due to the strong performance of AI computing power, new energy, and non-bank financials, which have a significant impact on the ChiNext Index.
The simultaneous strength of the three major weighted sectors is not sustainable, so the market is expected to slow down next week.
In the short term, the Shanghai Composite Index has shown a top divergence resonance at the 30-minute level. If the market adjusts at the beginning of next week, it would not be surprising, and the low point from this Thursday will be an important support level. However, this adjustment is part of the rebound cycle and can generally be ignored, only affecting the operational rhythm.
In addition, the Shanghai Composite Index has not effectively broken through the stage bottom from early February, and having just broken through the downward trend line since March, the trend is likely to have fluctuations.
Overall, the market next week is still in a rebound cycle, but the pace will slow down, and it can be viewed as a consolidation or oscillation.
Shenwan Hongyuan released a research report stating that the back-and-forth between the U.S. and Iran is within reason. The time expectation for the U.S.-Iran standoff has been extended, and the market has already priced this in. The mid-term macro scenario has basically converged, and the U.S.-Iran conflict, as the main contradiction in asset pricing (also the largest wave of impact), is nearing its end. Subsequent fluctuations are still inevitable, but the negative impact may weaken with each wave. It reaffirms that this round of market bottom is also the bottom for (small-cap growth) style. The &#34;two-phase rising market&#34; pattern is returning.
In terms of important events, there are several events worth paying attention to next week, including the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings, the World Copper Conference, and the important economic data to be released by China and the U.S., such as China's March financial data, March import and export data, first-quarter GDP data, and the U.S. March core PPI data.
Dr. Niu: Thank you, Da Ge, for sharing. The market is temporarily worry-free, giving us time to seek profits. So, what opportunities are worth paying attention to next week?
Dao Da: The upcoming market has already pointed out the direction.
The ChiNext Index has reached a new high in this round, with some leading and core stocks in AI hardware reaching new highs, and CATL's significant rise indicates that the main line of the market is AI hardware and lithium batteries.
In terms of AI hardware, leading and core stocks in sub-sectors such as optical modules, CPO, optical chips, optical fibers, storage, and OCS have all reached new highs, not only breaking the ceiling for AI computing power but also boosting other stocks in these sub-sectors.
Moreover, there is an important driving event for AI hardware, which is the Google Cloud Conference, scheduled to be held from April 22 to 24.
Drawing on the experience from the AI computing power market before the NVIDIA GTC conference in mid-March, AI hardware will continue to attract capital attention before the Google Cloud Conference.
Additionally, U.S. optical communication leader Lumentum is expected to sell out its 2028 production capacity within two quarters, and the industry cycle can maintain at least five years of prosperity. This has raised market expectations for the optical communication sector.
In terms of new energy, focusing on lithium batteries with energy storage as a supplement. Driving events include CATL's better-than-expected performance recently boosting sector sentiment, the price surge of last year's products leading to performance realization, and the impact of the Middle East situation opening up industry space for energy security
At the industry level, since 2026, the lithium battery market continues to maintain a high level of prosperity; currently, the industry has entered the peak season, and leading manufacturers' production schedules exceed expectations.
In terms of performance, as the market returns to a normal rhythm, the likelihood of stocks with performance exceeding expectations experiencing short-term dips is decreasing. In this regard, focus on stocks in sectors with explosive performance growth.
Regarding price increases, Baotou Steel and Northern Rare Earth announced an increase in the related transaction price of rare earth concentrates for the second quarter of 2026 to RMB 38,804 per ton (dry weight, REO=50%), which is a 44.61% increase compared to the first quarter.
Finally, Da Ge provides a summary: The ChiNext Index and AI computing power have pointed the direction for the market. Although there may be a need for adjustment in the market early next week, it is still in a rebound cycle, and should be viewed as oscillating or oscillating upward. There is no need to worry about the market next week; focus on the main line and pay attention to sector stocks.
In terms of sectors, leading and core stocks in various branches of AI hardware have reached new highs, and US stocks in optical communication have also hit new highs, which has a significant uplifting effect on the sector and is worth paying attention to. However, to guard against the realization of the Google Cloud Conference, it is advisable to trust early. Additionally, the upstream of lithium batteries is also worth monitoring.
PS: To learn more about Da Ge's views or to communicate with Da Ge, please follow the WeChat public account &#34;Dao Da Hao.&#34;
(Zhang Da Da)
According to the latest regulations from relevant national departments, this note does not involve any operational advice, and the risks of entering the market are borne by the individual.
Daily Economic News

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This week, the A-share market rebounded strongly, with the ChiNext and STAR 50 indices rising by more than 8%. AI technology stocks led the gains, with the components, semiconductor, and communication equipment sectors all increasing by over 10%. The third round of negotiations between Yimei has concluded, with significant differences between the two parties, resulting in a neutral market impact. The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges have released new regulations, adjusting the price fluctuation limit for main board ST stocks to 10%, which will help enhance market liquidity. Overall, market sentiment is optimistic, and opportunities remain in the future

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