The first quarter of 2026 has passed, and the A-share market has experienced a rollercoaster of fluctuations, with the market style shifting from a growth chase at the beginning of the year to a more defensive stance. The STAR 50 Index, which performed brilliantly last year, has significantly retraced after a strong rise at the beginning of the year. Many investors are filled with doubts: Is the main line of technological growth still there? Should one exit the market now, or hold on?
When in doubt about the future, it may be helpful to look back at history for answers. A retrospective of past growth cycles reveals that the current &#34;AI +&#34; growth cycle since the &#34;924&#34; event has many similarities with the &#34;Internet +&#34; represented by the ChiNext from 2013 to 2015. Moreover, the current STAR 50 Index seems to be at a similar juncture as the ChiNext Index in 2014: both are representative indices in a major technological growth cycle, having experienced rapid upward movement at the beginning of the year, followed by volatility and consolidation amid high valuations and style rebalancing, waiting for the return of the technological main line.
I. Reviewing 2014: Valuation Digestion, Building Momentum for the 2015 Growth Style Return
In 2014, the ChiNext Index exhibited an &#34;N&#34;-shaped fluctuation, with an annual increase of only 12.8%, far less than the 82.7% in 2013 and 84.4% in 2015. However, this year's &#34;mediocrity&#34; precisely accumulated energy for the subsequent explosion.
Figure: Comparison of the ChiNext Index and the entire A-share market in 2014
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/Oxepa2c2pBexaz7nFnQVrg5VwFlinCrow4pn1DJdOHuHoAA/641?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/Oxepa2c2pBexaz7nFnQVrg5VwFlinCrow4pn1DJdOHuHoAA/641"/>
Data source: Wind, statistical period from January 1, 2014, to December 31, 2014.
January to mid-February 2014: Initial inertia surge, followed by valuation digestion. In January 2014, the ChiNext Index continued the strong momentum of 2013, leading the entire A-share market. However, due to the excessive cumulative increase in 2013, the valuation divergence between growth and value styles reached an extreme, prompting a market style rotation from growth to value. The ChiNext Index entered an adjustment phase after February, showing a pattern of repeated tug-of-war in the first half of the year.
Late February to mid-June 2014: &#34;High cut low&#34; in valuation, searching for the main line in rotation. As TMT valuations rose to high levels, funds temporarily flowed into undervalued sectors such as real estate and finance. Coupled with the gradual easing of real estate policies and the supply shock from the resumption of IPOs, the growth style was weakened.
Late June to October 2014: Policy themes and cyclical trends become the greatest common divisor. The market's main line further shifted from sector rotation to policy themes and cyclical directions, driven by the warming of the &#34;Belt and Road&#34; theme, the advancement of state-owned enterprise reforms, the restructuring of military research institutes, and asset securitization policies. During this phase, although the ChiNext regained upward momentum, it clearly underperformed the broader market
November-December 2014: The extreme interpretation of value style, returning to growth after 2015. With interest rate cuts, the explosion of margin trading and leveraged funds, large-cap blue chips such as brokerages and banks experienced a vigorous market, while the growth style was significantly suppressed during this phase.
Looking back, the ChiNext in 2014 was more like a &#34;halftime break&#34; in the great cycle of growth. This is crucial for understanding the STAR 50 in 2026: in a round of technological growth, periodic pullbacks and style shifts do not necessarily mean the end of the main line. Entering 2015, as TMT profit growth accelerated again and the &#34;Internet +&#34; policy upgraded, the market shifted back to the growth style.
II. Comparing 2026: A sense of déjà vu, the return of the growth style may be faster
If we map the rhythm of the ChiNext in 2014 to the STAR 50 in 2026, we find that there are indeed strong similarities: both had significant gains in the previous year, with valuations clearly elevated, and continued to rise at the beginning of the new year, but soon entered a phase of increased volatility, style rebalancing, and valuation digestion.
Figure: Trend Comparison: ChiNext Index (2012~2015) VS STAR 50 (2023.9~Now)
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/Ooi-VlUjSBIoHvzlB68_OoC-ISTKCTaKtz8dndAB5_lxsAA/641?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/Ooi-VlUjSBIoHvzlB68_OoC-ISTKCTaKtz8dndAB5_lxsAA/641"/>
Data source: Wind, statistical period: ChiNext Index 2012-2015; STAR 50 Index September 1, 2023 - April 2, 2026.
In terms of fundamentals, both have distinct industrial main lines as core support, and their performance trends are quite similar. The main line of the ChiNext in 2014 was mobile internet and TMT, while the main line of the STAR Market in 2026 is AI computing power and semiconductor domestic substitution. Both rounds of industrial revolutions have brought about a reversal in profits— the STAR 50 is expected to see a bottoming out of profits in 2025 and continue to maintain high-speed growth.
Figure: Performance Trend Comparison: ChiNext Index (2012~2017) VS STAR 50 (2022-2027)
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OeLD8K5HSy_7P7xhXNVHQU4ChKIROiSo7i2XOMDhNepkoAA/641?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OeLD8K5HSy_7P7xhXNVHQU4ChKIROiSo7i2XOMDhNepkoAA/641"/>
Data source: Wind, &#34;Year-on-year profit growth rate&#34; refers to the year-on-year growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company, statistical period: ChiNext Index 2012-2017; STAR 50 Index 2022-2027, where the net profit growth rate for 2025-2027 is based on Wind's consensus forecast data, as of April 2, 2026
Of course, there are also differences between the two, which may lead to a quicker return to the growth main line in this round of adjustments compared to 2014.
(1) The industrial cycle behind this round of the Science and Technology Innovation Board is stronger. By 2014, the mobile internet had already entered a rapid penetration stage, and many sub-sectors began to transition from the &#34;initial explosion&#34; to the &#34;mid-to-late expansion.&#34; This is why, by 2014, the performance data of the growth sector began to slow down. Currently, the Science and Technology Innovation Board is backed by hard technology directions such as AI, domestic substitution, semiconductor equipment, and advanced manufacturing, with a longer industrial chain that is still in an upward phase of prosperity. Coupled with the policy orientation of self-control, it is not just simple demand expansion but also a reshaping of the supply pattern.
(2) The triggers for the two adjustments are different. The main disturbances in 2014 came from domestic &#34;stabilizing growth&#34; policies and the resumption of IPOs, leading to style switches, which were endogenous rotations. The main disturbances in 2026 come from geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, which are exogenous shocks. The characteristics of such shocks are: they come quickly and have a large impact, but once marginal easing signals appear, market sentiment can recover more quickly. Once the situation clarifies or negotiations make progress, the rebound of growth-style assets like the Science and Technology Innovation 50 may be more rapid.
(3) The funding structure in this round of market is more rational. At the end of 2014, margin trading and leveraged funds exploded, catalyzing a rapid rise in value styles represented by non-bank financials, but in this round of market, leveraged funds are relatively restrained. Therefore, we may not see the extreme value style performance as in the end of 2014, but rather a gradual return to growth after external shocks subside and risk appetite rebounds.
Reviewing the ChiNext in 2014 is to look at the Science and Technology Innovation Board in 2026 with more composure. Looking back at the ChiNext in 2014, many of the fluctuations that were unsettling at the time were later proven to be just phase disturbances within the growth main line. What truly determined its subsequent new highs was not a style switch during a certain period, but rather that the industrial trend had not ended, policy support continued to strengthen, and profits eventually began to take over valuations.
Today's Science and Technology Innovation 50 is facing a very similar situation, encountering fluctuations brought about by high valuations, swings of funds between different styles, and a re-examination of the pace of performance realization. However, at the same time, the underlying AI computing power, domestic substitution of semiconductors, upgrades in advanced manufacturing, and technological self-reliance have not changed, and even have clearer industrial logic support than in the past. The truly large-scale technology main line is often not a straight line. Completing valuation digestion amid high volatility and re-establishing a foundation for upward movement during style switches is precisely the necessary path for technology growth assets to transition from &#34;expectation-driven&#34; to &#34;profit-supported.&#34;
There is an old saying in investment: &#34;Markets are born in despair, grow in hesitation, and die in frenzy.&#34; The current Science and Technology Innovation 50 is in the &#34;growing in hesitation&#34; stage. Looking back at the history of the ChiNext in 2014, we find that those who chose to hold firm during the &#34;halftime&#34; ultimately shared in the rich returns of the main upward wave in 2015. If you believe that China's trend towards becoming a &#34;technology powerhouse&#34; will not change, then after the adjustments under external shocks, positioning in the Science and Technology Innovation 50 may be a worthwhile option to consider
In terms of product selection, attention can be paid to E Fund STAR 50 ETF (588080), which shares the dividends of domestic science and technology innovation development. It has the lowest management fee rate (0.15%/year) among all ETF products tracking the STAR 50 in the entire market, with an annual return of 36.58% for the year 2025, outperforming the STAR 50 Index by 0.66%

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In 2026, the A-share market experienced fluctuations, with the market style shifting from growth to defense. After a strong start at the beginning of the year, the STAR 50 Index retraced, raising investors' doubts about technological growth. Looking back at the ChiNext in 2014, it went through a valuation digestion, accumulating energy for the return of the growth style in 2015. The ChiNext Index only rose by 12.8% in 2014, with the market style rotating from growth to value, and policy themes becoming the main line of the market

Reviewing ChiNext 2014, Understanding STAR Market 2026