CITIC Construction Investment Securities Research
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Written by: Cheng Siqi, Tao Yiran, Chen Huaishan, Ma Boshuo, Hu Tiankuang, Li Yuewan, Cai Xinghe, Zhao Hanzhi, Bai He
This week, the production and sales data for March from major manufacturers has been released intensively, with exports and high-end vehicle sales exceeding expectations again. We continue to emphasize that under high oil prices due to geopolitical conflicts, the export of new energy passenger vehicles will become a structurally strong alpha. The market is gradually desensitizing to high oil prices and war factors, actively grasping the direction of high prosperity adjustments. The prosperity of fuel engines driven by AI continues to exceed expectations, FSD has been approved in the Netherlands, and the high prosperity of the robotics primary market brings continuous industrial evolution. Currently, the stock prices of high-quality leading companies have gradually stabilized, and we recommend actively configuring layouts under new catalysts in Q2.
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This week, the production and sales data for March from major manufacturers has been released intensively, with exports and high-end vehicle sales exceeding expectations again. We continue to emphasize that under high oil prices due to geopolitical conflicts, the export of new energy passenger vehicles will become a structurally strong alpha. The market is gradually desensitizing to high oil prices and war factors, actively grasping the direction of high prosperity adjustments. The prosperity of fuel engines driven by AI continues to exceed expectations, FSD has been approved in the Netherlands, and the high prosperity of the robotics primary market brings continuous industrial evolution. Currently, the stock prices of high-quality leading companies have gradually stabilized, and we recommend actively configuring layouts under new catalysts in Q2.
Passenger Vehicle Sector: The sales of major manufacturers in March were better than expected, with strong contributions from exports and high-end vehicles. The auto show in April is approaching. Among them: Geely's export sales in March reached 82,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 120%; BYD exported 120,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 65%; Chery exported 149,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 72%. Acceleration is expected around the Beijing Auto Show in late April, with March PPI turning positive year-on-year in advance, and domestic demand is expected to improve.
Commercial Vehicles: The performance elasticity contributed by exports may be underestimated, and new businesses such as AIDC contribute valuation elasticity.
Physical AI: It is recommended to actively layout and configure in the intelligent driving and robotics sectors. The market is beginning to desensitize to war and high oil prices, and the sector is starting to stabilize. Upcoming events such as the Robotics Sports Conference, the continued high prosperity of the primary robotics market, and the valuation recovery brought by Hong Kong stock liquidity are favorable for robotics and intelligent driving directions. The industrial trend remains clear, and recent feedback from supply chain companies indicates that they have received PPA for mass production of robots, which may currently be in an important configuration window for the year.
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<ol>
<li>
The industry prosperity is below expectations. The domestic economy is expected to recover in 2026, but the specific pace remains to be observed. The demand in the automotive industry may fluctuate accordingly; a slowdown in consumer income growth or fluctuations in expectations will affect the effectiveness of trade-in promotions. Insufficient demand in the passenger and freight markets will also restrict the scrapping and updating ratio of commercial vehicles, ultimately impacting the recovery process of automotive industry demand.
</li>
<li>
The implementation effect of policies is below expectations. The comprehensive implementation of trade-in and equipment update policies for consumer goods will still take time, and policy promotion and information dissemination also require a certain amount of time. Whether subsidy funds can continue to be disbursed in place and whether replacement demand can be smoothly released need to be continuously observed.
</li>
<li>
Export sales are below expectations. Exports are affected by various factors such as international situations, national policies, and exchange rates, and there is a risk of fluctuation in overseas sales growth.
</li>
<li>
The competitive landscape of the industry is deteriorating. Under the trend of electric and intelligent vehicles, domestic automakers and parts suppliers are competing to layout. With technological advancements and changes in supply factors such as new capacity release, future industry competition may intensify, and the market share and profitability of vehicle manufacturers and parts companies may fluctuate.
</li>
<li>
Customer expansion and the mass production progress of new projects are below expectations. Under the trend of electric and intelligent vehicles, the existing supply chain pattern of vehicle manufacturers and parts suppliers is undergoing reshaping. Parts companies that gain new customers and new project increments are expected to benefit, while the market share of some parts companies may be affected
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</li>
</ol>
Cheng Siqi: Chief Analyst of the Automotive Industry,
Master of Vehicle Engineering from Shanghai Jiao Tong University, studied under the director of the Engine Research Institute, previously worked at Soochow Securities and Guosheng Securities, with four years of research experience in the securities industry. Core member of the second team of New Fortune in 2017, first place in the New Rising Analyst of Sina Finance in 2020, and fifth place in the Best Automotive Industry Analyst Team of the Golden Bull Awards in 2020. Deeply covers new energy vehicles and intelligent components, grasps the wave of intelligent electrification, conducts cutting-edge research on the entire industrial chain of intelligent driving, and deeply tracks the evolution of business models from the upstream vehicle-mounted chips to the forefront of L4. Fourth place in the Best Analyst of New Fortune in the automotive industry in 2021.
Tao Yiran: Co-Chief Analyst of the Automotive Industry. Formerly an automotive analyst at Galaxy Securities, joined the CITIC Securities automotive team in 2018, core member of the Wind Gold Medal Analyst Team in 2018/19, core member of the New Rising Analyst Team of Sina Finance in 2019/20, core member of the Best Industry Analysis Team of the Golden Bull Awards in 2020, and core member of the Best Analyst Team of New Fortune and Crystal Ball in 2021/22.
Chen Huaishan: Automotive Industry Analyst, Master of Mechanical Engineering from Shanghai Jiao Tong University. Previously worked at Changjiang Securities Research Institute, with five years of research experience in the securities industry, member of the New Fortune first team in the power equipment and new energy industry from 2017 to 2019. Joined CITIC Securities in 2021, member of the fourth place team in the automotive and parts industry of New Fortune in 2022, with research on new energy vehicles, components, and complete vehicles.
Ma Boshuo: Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA), Master of Statistics from Columbia University, Bachelor’s degree in Mathematics and Actuarial Science from the University of Iowa, member of the North American Actuarial Society. Joined CITIC Securities in 2018, core member of the Wind Gold Medal Analyst Team in 2018/19, core member of the Best Industry Analysis Team of the Golden Bull Awards in 2020.
Hu Tiankuang: Master of Economics from Renmin University of China, Bachelor’s degree in Economic Statistics from Huazhong University of Science and Technology, joined CITIC Securities in 2021. Member of the New Fortune and Crystal Ball teams in 2021, and member of the New Fortune, Crystal Ball, and Golden Bull Award teams in 2022.
Li Yuewan: Master of Economics from Renmin University of China, responsible for research in the commercial vehicle and traditional components fields.
Cai Xinghe: Master of Economics from The Chinese University of Hong Kong, previously worked at the research institute of Zhongtai Securities, joined the automotive team of the Research and Development Department of CITIC Securities in 2025.
Zhao Hanzhi: Automotive Industry Analyst at CITIC Securities.
Bai He: Master from New York University, Bachelor from Shanghai Jiao Tong University. Mainly covers automotive components. Joined CITIC Securities in 2023.

Securities Research Report Title: &#34;Passenger Car Exports Continue to Exceed Expectations, Actively Layout in High Prosperity Growth Directions&#34;
Release Date: April 15, 2026
Report Issuing Institution: CITIC Construction Investment Securities Co., Ltd.
Report Analysts:
Cheng Siqi SAC No.: S1440520070001
SFC No.: BQR089
Tao Yiran SAC No.: S1440518060002
Chen Huaishan SAC No.: S1440521110006
Ma Boshuo SAC No.: S1440521050001
Hu Tiankuang SAC No.: S1440523070010
Li Yuewan SAC No.: S1440524070017
Cai Xinghe SAC No.: S1440526010001
Zhao Hanzhi SAC No.: S1440525070015
Bai Ge SAC No.: S1440525080001

09973

GELHY

00175

GELYY

516380

515030

CITIC Construction Investment pointed out that passenger car exports continue to exceed expectations, especially against the backdrop of high oil prices and geopolitical conflicts, with new energy vehicle exports becoming a structurally strong alpha. The sales data of major manufacturers in March performed well, with exports of Geely, BYD, and CHERY all showing significant growth. The market is gradually desensitizing to high oil prices and war factors, and it is recommended to actively allocate quality leading stocks, focusing on investment opportunities in the robotics and intelligent driving sectors

- March production and sales data from major auto manufacturers indicate better-than-expected performance in exports and high-end vehicle sales.  
- The report highlights that, despite geopolitical tensions and high oil prices, new energy vehicle exports are becoming structurally significant.  
- Analysts recommend actively positioning in high-growth sectors as the market stabilizes and transformation opportunities arise in AI and robotics.

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CITIC Construction Investment | Passenger car exports continue to exceed expectations, actively laying out in high prosperity growth directions