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In April, the ChiNext Index surged, briefly breaking through 3685 points, reaching a nearly ten-year high. However, amidst this feast, over 80% of related stocks underperformed the index, leading some investors to experience a sense of &#34;making money on the index but not in reality.&#34; Additionally, while the index was advancing rapidly, over 10 billion yuan quietly exited through ETFs, although there was a slight net inflow of funds in certain sub-sectors like new energy.
Luo Hao, the manager of the E Fund ChiNext ETF, told Yicai that the recent strength of the ChiNext is essentially the result of a resonance among policies, industries, and funds. The sectors contributing the most weight are still core areas such as new energy equipment, AI hardware/optical modules, semiconductors, and high-end manufacturing.
&#34;This round of market activity is more appropriately characterized as a structural revaluation rather than a broad-based rally; the core incremental funds driving the strength of leading stocks are mainly visible at this stage as passive funds like ETFs and margin financing, while active institutional funds are more reflected in a concentration towards leading stocks,&#34; Luo analyzed.
ChiNext Index Strongly Breaks Through in April
Entering April, the ChiNext Index showed strong performance, frequently setting new ten-year highs. Wind data shows that on April 17, the index briefly reached 3685.1 points, a new high since July 2015. By the close of that day, the cumulative increase of the ChiNext Index since the beginning of the month had reached 15.49%.
The individual stocks were equally hot, with 15 ChiNext stocks having increased by over 50% this month. Among them, Zhang Xiaoqin (301055.SZ) led with a performance of 90.31%, followed closely by Hongjing Technology (301396.SZ) with an increase of 84.41%. Other stocks like Baolid (300905.SZ) and Aoni Electronics (301189.SZ) also saw increases exceeding 75% during the same period.
Additionally, 79 ChiNext stocks set historical highs for their closing prices (adjusted for dividends, same below) this month, mainly concentrated in sub-sectors such as electronics, machinery, and power equipment. For example, the closing price of Zhongji Xuchuang (300308.SZ) on April 17 was 851 yuan per share, marking a new high since its listing in 2012.
Regarding this round of market activity, Liu Tingyu, manager of the Yongying ChiNext Index Fund, told Yicai, &#34;The recent explosion in demand for AI computing power has led to high prosperity in related infrastructure companies, while the high oil prices and the unexpected production of new energy storage have created opportunities in the new energy sector, jointly driving the ChiNext Index to new highs.&#34;
Wang Lele, ETF investment director at Fullgoal Fund, believes that performance prosperity is the main driving force behind the rise of the ChiNext Index. He told Yicai that the stocks in the ChiNext Index have strong growth attributes, covering leading companies in sectors such as new energy, optical modules, and chips
&#34;These leading companies have a relatively high level of prosperity, for example, the performance growth of optical modules has doubled, and the performance of the new energy sector has also shown significant growth.&#34; He further stated that with the development of the AI sector and the U.S.-Iran conflict highlighting national energy security, there is hope for an increase in the penetration rate of the new energy industry, all of which drive the fundamentals of the ChiNext index.
Deng Hequan, Chief Wealth Advisor of the Market Support and Management Department of China Merchants Fund, characterized this round of market trend as a &#34;structural market led by technology growth.&#34; He believes that its core feature is that under the background of economic transformation, high-quality companies with technological innovation capabilities and industrial upgrading potential are being revalued by the market.
Regarding the sources of funds driving the leading weights, Deng Hequan analyzed that, firstly, there is proactive allocation of domestic institutional funds, including public funds and insurance funds, which are increasing their allocation to technology growth stocks within a reasonable valuation range; secondly, there is active participation of financing funds, with data showing that the financing balance of the ChiNext has been fluctuating upwards, indicating the driving role of leveraged funds in the market; thirdly, there is recognition from industrial capital, as some leading companies have received increased holdings from industrial investors, reflecting optimism about the development prospects within the industry.
&#34;As a typical large-cap growth style index, the ChiNext index has strong performance elasticity and long-term growth attributes, continuously attracting attention and allocation from mainstream funds such as institutions.&#34; Song Yong'an, manager of the Agricultural Bank ChiNext Index Fund, believes that this round of market trend continues the long-term upward logic of the growth style, driven by industrial trends and consensus among funds, with the core driving funds primarily being institutional funds focused on pursuing long-term performance and growth tracks.
Where does the &#34;perceptual bias&#34; of investors come from?
However, the other side of the index's continuous rise is the &#34;perceptual bias&#34; of investors. &#34;Earning the index but not making money&#34; has become a hot topic in the market. Wind data shows that the average increase of nearly 1,400 ChiNext stocks since April is 7.71%, with only 237 stocks outperforming the index during this period, accounting for less than 17%.
In this regard, Deng Hequan stated that the fundamental reason for the perceptual bias of investors lies in the structural characteristics of the ChiNext index and the mismatch with the holding structure of individual investors. From a trading behavior perspective, individual investors generally have a tendency to &#34;chase highs and cut losses,&#34; taking profits too early when individual stocks rise and being unwilling to cut losses when they fall, resulting in actual returns being far lower than theoretical increases.
&#34;Although the ChiNext index has repeatedly hit new highs, the rise is mainly driven by a few weighted stocks and specific tracks. Some individual investors often prefer small and mid-cap stocks and thematic concept stocks, which have a lower weight in the index. When the index rises mainly due to a few weighted stocks, the performance of these investors' portfolios naturally struggles to keep up with the index,&#34; he said.
Deng Hequan further stated that some individual investors lack a systematic investment framework, and their decisions are often based on short-term news and market sentiment rather than in-depth research on company fundamentals. This short-term trading model is particularly unfavorable in a structural market. In addition, individual investors often overlook the impact of trading costs, as the commissions, stamp duties, and other costs generated by frequent trading can significantly erode long-term returns
In the view of most interviewees, the industry distribution characteristics of the ChiNext Index have also exacerbated this deviation. Luo Hao stated that over 80% of the total market capitalization of the ChiNext Index is concentrated in the manufacturing sector, with the top ten weighted stocks accounting for 57% of the market capitalization. This means that an increase in the index does not necessarily equate to a simultaneous surge in most ChiNext individual stocks.
He analyzed that the fundamental reason why individual investors often &#34;make money on the index but not on their investments&#34; is usually not market distortion, but rather a mismatch between personal holding structures and index weight structures. When combined with possible frequent trading and chasing high switches, this deviation is further amplified.
Song Yong'an also believes that the core reason lies in the difficulty of accurately grasping the structural market context this year, which can easily lead to deviations in industry and individual stock selection. He stated that the increase in the ChiNext Index this year has a very strong structural characteristic, with gains mainly concentrated in a few core sectors such as power equipment, communications, and electronics, while most other industries have shown lackluster performance or even adjustments.
&#34;At the same time, the scale of ChiNext index products continues to expand, further guiding incremental funds to concentrate on core weighted industries and leading stocks, which has, to some extent, reinforced the structural characteristics of the index's market.&#34; He added.
Can ETFs solve the &#34;making money on the index but not on investments&#34; dilemma?
So, for investors who cannot accurately capture leading stocks, is directly allocating to ChiNext ETFs or ChiNext 50 ETFs the optimal solution to eliminate the &#34;perceptual deviation&#34;? Deng Hequan stated that this approach is indeed an effective solution to eliminate perceptual deviation, but it is not an absolute optimal solution.
He further explained that both types of ETFs can help investors achieve returns similar to the index, avoiding underperformance due to poor individual stock selection. However, this solution also has limitations: &#34;The returns of ETFs depend entirely on index performance, and investors forgo the opportunity to obtain excess returns through selective stock picking; in addition, while ETFs diversify individual stock risks, they cannot avoid systemic risks and industry concentration risks.&#34;
&#34;For most individual investors, directly allocating to ChiNext ETFs is a clearer and more executable choice than frequently chasing hot stocks and repeatedly switching stocks, but it may not be suitable for everyone,&#34; Luo Hao said.
He suggested that in the current market environment, it is more important not to blindly pursue short-term elasticity, but to shift from speculating on individual stocks to optimizing allocation, using index tools to capture overall opportunities in sectors, while also managing position sizes and holding discipline according to one's own risk tolerance, and utilizing scientific methods such as dollar-cost averaging, grid trading, and portfolio allocation to enhance the overall return-risk ratio.
A fund research professional from South China stated in an interview: &#34;If investors are optimistic about the long-term trend of the ChiNext but struggle with stock selection and holding, then directly investing in ChiNext ETFs is the most straightforward solution.&#34; At the same time, he reminded that the ChiNext Index has high volatility, and investors should make proper expectations and risk assessments, and should not enter the market rashly just because of sector increases or individual stock popularity.
&#34;This year's macro environment in the second quarter may lead to increased differentiation in individual stock performance, thus investment strategies should be more focused rather than dispersed,&#34; said Jin Dalai, a macro strategy researcher at the equity research department of Golden Eagle Fund, to Yicai. Compared to last year, this year the market places greater emphasis on the weight of profitability
&#34;In the second quarter of this year compared to the first quarter, the market may place greater emphasis on companies' cost control and transmission capabilities. As a result, even within the same industry, different companies will show significant differences in operational profitability.&#34; Jindalai believes that passive funds with a more concentrated weight in individual stocks like the ChiNext 50 ETF may be relatively better choices. Individual investors can also consider selecting specific thematic ETFs based on industry prosperity.
It is important to note that many funds have begun to withdraw from ChiNext-related sectors. According to Wind data, as of April 17, there are 39 broad-based ETFs tracking ChiNext-related indices, with over 80% of the products experiencing net redemptions this month, totaling more than 14.5 billion yuan.
Among them, the ChiNext ETF E Fund has seen a net outflow of 6.726 billion yuan since the beginning of the month, while the ChiNext 50 ETF Huaan and the ChiNext ETF GF Securities have net outflows of 2.408 billion yuan and 1.816 billion yuan, respectively. Meanwhile, some specific segments have seen slight net inflows, such as the ChiNext New Energy ETF Guotai, which has had a net inflow of 62 million yuan since the beginning of the month.
(This article is from Yicai)

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In April, the ChiNext index briefly broke through 3685 points, reaching a nearly ten-year high, but over 80% of stocks underperformed the index, leading some investors to feel that "earning the index does not mean making money." Despite the rise in the index, over 10 billion yuan quietly exited through ETFs, while certain sub-sectors like new energy saw slight net inflows. Fund manager Luo Hao analyzed that the recent strength of the ChiNext is the result of a resonance among policy, industry, and capital, mainly benefiting core sectors such as new energy equipment, AI hardware, and semiconductors. In April, the ChiNext index recorded a cumulative increase of 15.49%, with 15 stocks rising over 50%

腾讯新闻 - 财经

ChiNext

E Fund GEM ETF

Fullgoal ChiNext Composite ETF

Huaan SZSE ChiNext Composite 50 ETF

China Southern ChiNext Composite ETF

GloryView

PPM(SuZhou)

aoni

Zhongji Innolight

GF ChiNext Composite ETF

AXA SPDB ChiNext Composite ETF

The index hits a new high, but funds are fleeing. Who is the real driving force behind the rise of ChiNext?