<div id="readability-page-1"><div> <h2>Key Points</h2><ul><li>Start-up rare-earth miner Critical Metals has no revenue and won't turn profitable before 2029.</li><li>It's running out of cash, too. </li><li>There's still a chance it can survive to 2029.</li><li>10 stocks we like better than Critical Metals ›</li></ul>Up an astounding 687% in share price over the past year -- but down 34% from its peak hit back in January -- rare-earth mining company Critical Metals (NASDAQ: CRML) was one of the hottest bets on the stock market...until all of a sudden, it wasn't anymore.Today, investors have to be wondering: Will this would-be rare-earth miner ever move beyond its start-up stage and actually get a chance to mine some rare-earth elements? Or will it go bust before that happens?Will AI create the world's first trillionaire? Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an &#34;Indispensable Monopoly&#34; providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. Continue »<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9lZGl0b3JpYWwvaW1hZ2VzLzg2NTQ4Ni9jb2JhbHQtbWluZS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="700" height="487" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9lZGl0b3JpYWwvaW1hZ2VzLzg2NTQ4Ni9jb2JhbHQtbWluZS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/>Image source: Getty Images. <h2>Critical math</h2>It's a worthwhile question to ask. Let me see if I can answer it for you with math.Critical Metals owns 92.5% of a rare-earth field in Greenland known as the Tanbreez project. Analysts think there's a fair chance this project will turn a profit if Critical Metals can stay in business long enough to realize it. Long-term forecasts by Wall Street bankers anticipate Critical Minerals will start mining operations in 2028 and generate revenue of $35 million that year.By 2029, revenue could double to $70 million, permitting Critical Metals to flip from investing in the project to profiting from it. Forecasts see positive free cash flow emerging in 2029, and nearly doubling to $31 million by 2030.But here's where things get tricky.To reach positive FCF in 2029, Critical Minerals must first make massive cash investments to develop its property. Estimates provided by S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence anticipate that more than $450 million must be invested between now and then.Unfortunately for its investors, Critical Metals only has about $80 million in the bank at present.<h2>Is Critical Metals stock going to $0?</h2>So Critical Metals is going to run out of cash first; that doesn't necessarily mean its stock will go to zero, though. Before going bankrupt, the company is almost certain to try to raise cash, either by borrowing it or, more likely, by issuing and selling stock.The crucial question is how much stock. Let's assume Critical Metals decides to rip off the bandage and raise cash right away. Raising $450 million at the current stock price of $13.50 would require issuing 33.3 million new shares. (Actually, probably more than that, because the company would sell its stock at a discount to attract buyers fast.)Even selling just 33.3 million shares, though, would dilute Critical Metals' existing shareholders out of 26% of their stake in the company. But here's the good news: If that resulted in a similar 26% decline in the stock price, it would imply Critical Metals shares will trade for $10. It won't be a pleasant drop. Shareholders won't enjoy it.<div>But it's still a lot better than $0.</div><h2>Should you buy stock in Critical Metals right now?</h2> Before you buy stock in Critical Metals, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Critical Metals wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $476,034!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,274,109!* Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 974% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 206% for the S&amp;P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors. See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of May 8, 2026. Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. </div></div>

CRML

PICK

Critical Metals, a start-up rare-earth miner, has no revenue and is unlikely to turn profitable before 2029. The company is running out of cash, with only $80 million available against an estimated $450 million needed for development. Despite a 687% increase in share price over the past year, it has dropped 34% from its peak. Analysts predict potential profitability by 2029, but significant dilution of shares may occur if the company raises funds. Investors are advised to consider other stocks recommended by analysts instead of Critical Metals.

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Critical Metals

ISHRS MSCI Glb Slct Met & Mining

SPDR S&P Mtls & Mng

Invesco DB TR Base Metals ETF

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Intel

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S&P 500

Nasdaq

CRITICAL METALS CORPORATION C/WTS 27/02/2029 (TO PUR COM)

NVIDIA Corporation

Is Critical Metals Stock Going to $0 Before It Ever Becomes a Real Miner?