By Joy Wiltermuth
AI exuberance is fueling stock-market records, but oil's surge is hurting households
Stocks are at new record highs, but oil prices are hurting households.
Investors are caught on a tightrope - watching a very narrow band of tech stocks lift the stock market to fresh record highs, while looking down below for signs of trouble.
Tech earnings in the first quarter have been spectacular, taking the edge off global oil prices (BRN00) stuck around $100 a barrel as the Iran war drags into a third month.
There's been the thrill of artificial-intelligence spending starting to pipe through the economy like oxygen. Yet there's dread among households juggling higher gas, food and borrowing costs - and worrying about their jobs.
&#34;Everything appears to be very fragile, and that's very unsettling,&#34; said Joseph Tanious, chief investment strategist for North America at Northern Trust Asset Management.
&#34;It's hard to reconcile seeing the S&amp;P 500 flirt with record highs when there's a war going on in the Middle East,&#34; he added, noting the impact of higher oil, gas and diesel prices on many families.
Oil futures, including U.S. benchmark contracts (CL00), now suggest the worst of the surge in energy prices has past and the conflict will soon end. But &#34;that doesn't mean we are going back to the old Strait of Hormuz,&#34; Tanious said, referring to the critical Persian Gulf waterway for global oil supplies. He expects oil prices to stay higher for longer, and doesn't believe they'll soon be returning to the $65-a-barrel level seen before the war.
Yet, for investors, megacap tech stocks have been &#34;our saving grace,&#34; Tanious said.
That was true on Friday, when tech shares helped the S&amp;P 500 SPX capture its 15th record high of 2026. The index has now risen 16.2% over six straight weeks of gains - its longest weekly winning streak in about a year, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The S&amp;P 500's information-technology sector XX:SP500.45 surged 7% for the week, while the index at large gained 2.3%, according to FactSet data.
Investors cheered Friday's U.S. jobs report for April, which suggested a strengthening labor market. This comes even though payrolls in the tech industry are &#34;now at a five-year low and peaked (perhaps not coincidentally) right around the time ChatGPT was released,&#34; according to Kevin Gordon, head of macro research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. &#34;For now, AI labor disruption remains a tech-specific story,&#34; he wrote in a Friday client note.
The popular Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF MAGS also finally topped its October record high on Friday, after tumbling 19.8% at its March 30 low this year, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
&#34;It's not a big surprise from our end,&#34; said Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial, of the narrow breadth of the rally. &#34;When you think about what's driving the bull market, it's the megacap names for performance and overall earnings.&#34;
Recent earnings growth for the &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; has translated to far more attractive valuations, Turnquist said, noting that the group of Big Tech stocks is now trading at roughly 24 times 12-month forward earnings, versus closer to 30 times in October.
When the bull market turned three years old in October, investors started rotating into other parts of the stock market, and tech fell out of favor for a number of months. But now it's back in fashion, contributing to narrow breadth among stock-market winners.
Over a period of 30 days, only 22% of names in the S&amp;P 500 outperformed the broader index - a level Citadel Securities' Scott Rubner noted as a 30-year low in a Friday client note.
Despite the lopsided gains, it's hard to dislike tech stocks, especially with $7.6 trillion in AI spending expected through 2031. It's also hard not to worry about AI taking jobs, elevated bond yields BX:TMUBMUSD10Y that are keep borrowing costs high, and oil prices.
&#34;There's a lot of optimism in equity markets,&#34; said LPL's Turnquist. &#34;I don't think that is reflected in oil or fixed-income markets. There's much more caution in those markets.&#34;
The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA gained 0.2% for the week, while the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP rose 4.5%. Investors in the week ahead will be focused on the latest U.S. inflation reading Tuesday from the consumer-price index for April, which is expected to edge closer to 4% - further away from the Federal Reserve's 2% yearly target.
-Joy Wiltermuth
This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
05-10-26 0900ET

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Stocks are reaching record highs, primarily driven by a few tech giants, while rising oil prices are straining households. Despite strong tech earnings and optimism around AI spending, concerns about the impact of high energy costs persist. The S&P 500 has seen significant gains, with tech stocks leading the charge, but only a small percentage of companies are outperforming the index. Investors remain cautious, especially with upcoming inflation data and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East affecting oil prices.

- Stock markets are reaching record highs driven by tech stocks, while rising oil prices are negatively impacting households.  
- Despite the excitement around AI spending boosting the economy, concerns over high gas and food prices loom, with many families feeling unsettled.  
- Analysts note the fragile balance between tech-driven market optimism and ongoing economic challenges, emphasizing the contrasting sentiments in equity versus oil and bond markets.

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Stocks are walking a tightrope to fresh record highs - as a handful of names do most of the heavy lifting