SG Morning Brief | S&P Grinds to Another Record as Iran Talks Collapse and CPI Looms

US OvernightThe S&P 500 rose 0.19% to a record 7,412.84, the Nasdaq Composite inched up 0.1% to a record 26,274.13, and the Dow added 95.31 points (+0.19%) to 49,704.47. All three indexes hit new intraday highs before fading into the close as oil surged nearly 3% to $98.25 per barrel. Trump called Iran's counter-proposal "TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE" and said the ceasefire was "on life support," ending any near-term hope for a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 4.6 bps to 4.41%. Despite record closes, only 37.8% of US stocks advanced — the narrowest breadth in weeks, with semiconductors and energy doing all the heavy lifting. Copper hit a record close of $6.4605.Key MoversCircle (CRCL) +16% — The USDC stablecoin issuer surged 15.91% to $131.76 after reporting Q1 revenue of $694 million (+20% YoY) and announcing a $222 million ARC Token presale backed by BlackRock, a16z, Apollo, and ARK Invest. USDC circulation grew 28% to $77 billion, while on-chain transaction volume exploded 263% to $21.5 trillion.Qualcomm (QCOM) +10% — Qualcomm surged after CEO Cristiano Amon confirmed the company will begin shipping data center chips to a "large hyperscaler" within the calendar year. The move opens a new revenue stream beyond mobile and positions Qualcomm as a credible third option for AI inference alongside Nvidia and AMD.Nvidia (NVDA) +2% — Nvidia rose 1.97% to $219.44, hitting a new all-time intraday high of $222.30 before pulling back. The stock led the semiconductor complex higher ahead of its May 20 earnings report, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) surging 2.59% to 12,081 — a new record — while the broader market barely advanced.SGX PreviewThe STI closed at 4,921.90 on Thursday May 8, down 0.41% from the prior close of 4,941.96, as traders locked in gains near record territory. Monday's (May 11) close was not yet available at time of writing. DBS is trading near S$58.50, with OCBC around S$20.19 and UOB near S$22.70. Rising oil prices are a double-edged sword for Singapore banks: higher rates support net interest margins, but energy-driven inflation pressures the trade-dependent economy. Today's US CPI release (8:30 PM SGT) is the key catalyst — a hot print could push the 10-year yield higher and weigh on rate-sensitive stocks in tomorrow's session.Asia Pre-MarketUS futures data for Tuesday morning was not yet available at time of writing. Monday's session closed with the VIX up 6.9% to 18.38, the sharpest volatility spike in weeks, signaling CPI-related hedging. WTI crude settled at $98.25 (+2.97%), gold at $4,745.60 (+0.31%), and Bitcoin at $81,715 (+1.25%). The macro setup heading into CPI is tense: oil back near $100, the Iran ceasefire collapsing, and the 10-year yield at 4.41%. A benign CPI print would relieve pressure; a hot print could trigger the first meaningful pullback since late March.Today's US Earnings and Economic CalendarEventTime (ET)Time (SGT)ConsensusApril CPI (MoM)8:30 AM8:30 PM+0.6%April Core CPI (MoM)8:30 AM8:30 PM+0.4%April CPI (YoY)8:30 AM8:30 PM+3.7%April Core CPI (YoY)8:30 AM8:30 PM+2.7%No major SG-relevant earnings today. Trump begins his China visit, where technology trade and rare earth exports are expected to be discussed.Data Spotlight: April CPI — Headline CPI is expected at +0.6% MoM / +3.7% YoY, driven by surging gasoline prices. Core CPI at +0.4% MoM is the number to watch — March core was just +0.2%, so a jump to +0.4% would confirm the inflationary impulse the FOMC hawks warned about. S&P Global Ratings forecasts headline CPI could reach 5% for full-year 2026.One More ThingSeven consecutive record closes for the S&P 500, each on thinner breadth. Monday's advance was carried by just 37.8% of stocks. That is the signature of a momentum-driven, mega-cap-led market. The CPI print tonight is the stress test. If inflation comes in cool, the concentration is justified — growth stocks thrive when rates expectations ease. If inflation comes in hot, the same mega-caps that carried the index up are the most rate-sensitive on the way down. Ed Yardeni raised his year-end S&P target to 8,250, calling earnings "phenomenal." He may be right. The question tonight is whether inflation lets the market get there.This briefing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.