CMBI Raises China 2026 Export Growth Forecast to Around 8%-9%, Expects Trade Surplus to Narrow from High Base
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CMBI has raised its forecast for China's export growth in 2026 to around 8%-9%, up from 4%, citing a rebound in exports driven by AI hardware and green energy demand. The report indicates strong export growth will bolster economic resilience and manufacturing output, though domestic demand remains weak. Import growth is expected to rise to 12%-14%, influenced by higher chip prices and raw material costs. The trade surplus is anticipated to narrow, with the USD/RMB exchange rate projected to fall to 6.8 mid-year and 6.78 by year-end.
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