Rate Hike Odds Surge as Swelling Inflation Crushes Rate Cut Hopes

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2026.05.12 15:06
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The odds of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates have surged following the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April, which showed a 3.8% inflation rate, the highest since 2023. The likelihood of maintaining rates is now at 63%, while the chances of a rate hike have increased significantly, with one hike now at 29.7% and two hikes at 4.3%. Conversely, the probability of a rate cut has decreased to 2.9%.